CollegeRPI.com still has Gophers in somewhat safely

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SelectionSunday

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Jerry Palm updated his bracket today. Has Gophers as #9 seed playing #8 West Virginia in Kansas City in West Region.

His matchups for Minneapolis are: #2 Louisville vs. #15 Long Beach State; #7 Utah vs. #10 Arizona; #3 Kansas vs. #14 Buffalo; and #6 Gonzaga vs. #11 Virginia Tech.

Interesting considering these are our last 2 opponents? Wisconsin and Michigan are among Palm's "last 4 in" while Penn State is among his "first 4 out." So basically at this point he's saying the Gophers are #5 in the Big 10's pecking order, Michigan & Wisconsin are #6/7 and Penn State is #8. I'd put Michigan #5 in the pecking order, ahead of the Gophers, Wisconsin & Penn State.

Among the 5 Big Ten bubble teams, here are their top-50 wins. Using this limited information, judge for yourself how these teams stack up vs. one another.

Ohio State (6): Butler (20), Purdue (28), Minnesota (36), at Miami-Florida (44), at Michigan (46), Michigan (46)

Michigan (5): Duke (2), Illinois (14), Purdue (28), vs. UCLA (33), Minnesota (36)

Penn State (5): at Michigan State (6), at Illinois (14), Purdue (28), Minnesota (36), Michigan (46)

Minnesota (4): vs. Louisville (11), Illinois (14), at Wisconsin (29), Ohio State (40)

Wisconsin (3): Illinois (14), Ohio State (40), at Michigan (46)

In truth, in terms of beating quality competition the Badgers' resume easily is the worst of these 5, despite a strong overall schedule. But the Badgers are finishing strong, the Gophers are not. That is important & it matters to the committee. In terms of figuring out the final pecking order, the Badgers/Wolverines game this weekend is every bit as important as the Gophers/Badgers game next week.
 

What's the disparity between having us in at an 8 on CollegeRPI and Lunardi leaving us out ?

An 8 seems pretty solid and with that seed I would think we would be somewhere to found on Lunardi's bracket as well.
 

It's really not a huge difference. The difference between an 8 and a 12 (usually where the last couple at-larges are found) can be as small as a 13-team gap. Certainly possible with how the bubble teams can look a lot alike.
 

Does Palm project his based on the predicted end of year record? He might be giving us the wins over Wisconsin and Michigan.
 

I would argue the Badgers non conference schedule more then makes up for the top 50 wins issue. Not to mention the fact that the Badgers won at Virginia Tech, who has to be right on the brink of top 50. They also have a sweep over Penn State and can add one over Michigan, so that would clearly put them ahead of both of those teams if they win Sunday.

The Badgers are in this spot because of the choke against Minnesota and letting that loss beat them at Iowa as well. They have blown some other winnable games, but they are not a 23-3 team anyway so that stuff will happen. The Minnesota game is the real head scratcher. The next time Johnson and Westbrook both hit 3's in the last 25 seconds of a game to send it to overtime, let me know. However, that stuff happens so they have to live with it. Nice revenge would be a win on Wednesday.
 


It's really not a huge difference. The difference between an 8 and a 12 (usually where the last couple at-larges are found) can be as small as a 13-team gap. Certainly possible with how the bubble teams can look a lot alike.
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I've tended to be pretty even keeled about the Gophers won/loss record this year. If they don't make the tournament I'm going to be fairly disappointed. I'll bring one foot back in from the ledge. Thanks.
 

GVBadger said:
I would argue the Badgers non conference schedule more then makes up for the top 50 wins issue. Not to mention the fact that the Badgers won at Virginia Tech, who has to be right on the brink of top 50. They also have a sweep over Penn State and can add one over Michigan, so that would clearly put them ahead of both of those teams if they win Sunday.

The Badgers are in this spot because of the choke against Minnesota and letting that loss beat them at Iowa as well. They have blown some other winnable games, but they are not a 23-3 team anyway so that stuff will happen. The Minnesota game is the real head scratcher. The next time Johnson and Westbrook both hit 3's in the last 25 seconds of a game to send it to overtime, let me know. However, that stuff happens so they have to live with it. Nice revenge would be a win on Wednesday.
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The next time the Badgers break the press twice in a row let me know.
 

From the Barn said:
The next time the Badgers break the press twice in a row let me know.
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They have done it all year. They had two bad minutes of basketball and it cost them because the Gophers made some big shots. Sh*t happens.

How bout this. Give the Badgers a ten point lead with 4 minutes left on Wednesday and we will start the game from there. I think the Badgers will take their chances.
 

GVBadger said:
They have done it all year. They had two bad minutes of basketball and it cost them because the Gophers made some big shots. Sh*t happens.

How bout this. Give the Badgers a ten point lead with 4 minutes left on Wednesday and we will start the game from there. I think the Badgers will take their chances.
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You have to admit that the Badgers have struggled to close out games all season. They outplayed Michigan State last week for about 35 minutes and then got demolished in the last 5 minutes and ended up getting beaten soundly. I can give you more examples if you like but I trust you'll agree that closing games has been a problem--with the Gophers being the extreme of that problem.
 



How bout this. Give the Badgers a ten point lead with 4 minutes left on Wednesday and we will start the game from there. I think the Badgers will take their chances.
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Has anyone ever grabbed Landry's goggles, pulled them about a foot off his face, and then let them snap ?

Thwwwackkk !
 

GVBadger said:
They have done it all year. They had two bad minutes of basketball and it cost them because the Gophers made some big shots. Sh*t happens.

How bout this. Give the Badgers a ten point lead with 4 minutes left on Wednesday and we will start the game from there. I think the Badgers will take their chances.
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How did that overtime go?
 


From the Barn said:
Does Palm project his based on the predicted end of year record? He might be giving us the wins over Wisconsin and Michigan.
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It's been a while since I looked at that site but I think you are right. I think they project ahead based on RPI and a factor for home court.
 



Not so with Lunardi

Lunardi's bracket projections are based only on games that have been played. He does not predict future results.
 

From the Barn said:
How did that overtime go?
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Just let it go, FTB. This clown has been trumpeting this since the final whistle.

The Gophers got all the breaks. The refs were out to get Bo. 75 things went wrong at the end, what are the chances!!!111!

And of course, the hangover effect was what made them lose 4 more games after the Meltdown in Madison, including a game to the 2nd worst team in the league. Maybe the Badgers are just an average team? Could that be it? Nah...it's gotta be the other 50 things.
 

GoGoGophers said:
Just let it go, FTB. This clown has been trumpeting this since the final whistle.

The Gophers got all the breaks. The refs were out to get Bo. 75 things went wrong at the end, what are the chances!!!111!

And of course, the hangover effect was what made them lose 4 more games after the Meltdown in Madison, including a game to the 2nd worst team in the league. Maybe the Badgers are just an average team? Could that be it? Nah...it's gotta be the other 50 things.
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Apparently you have a reading comprehension problem. I said in this thread that the Badgers have blown a number of games but are not a 23-3 team anyway, so it does not matter. If they were a 23-3 team, they wouldn't have blown all of those games.

I have also given credit to the Gophers for making all the plays they had to make to win the game.

But if you watch any basketball, which I will assume you do, you can count the games on one hand in an entire year where a team loses a ten point lead with 4 minutes left.

Now let's assume you have watched the Gophers this year as well. How many games have they hit two three pointers in the last 25 seconds to tie a game? How many games all year have they scored 6 points in 25 seconds, period? How have the Gophers shot the three as a team since that game?

That you can't see the amount of luck that it takes to come back from ten down with four minutes to go, NO MATTER WHO IS PLAYING, is absurd. I know what the Badgers are. I don't think you have a clue who the Gophers are.
 

The Badger fan is right, face the facts. The Badgers are clearly the only team in the nation to have lost a couple of games this year that they should have won. Nobody else has dumped down the stretch and lost disappointing games. Apparently their whole season has been defined by that collapse against the Gophers?

Not to get into a verbal sparring match but this is a pretty ridiculous argument, GV. And to say only a handful of teams have lost 10-pt leads in the last 4 minutes is a little short-sighted as well. Northwestern did it a few weeks ago in something around 2 minutes or less.

What's done is done at this point. I'll be the first to admit it, I'd have no problem saying the Badgers are a better team than the Gophers right now and they're playing better basketball than the Rodents. That probably makes dumping to the Gophers on their home court an even tougher pill to swallow.

Unlike some on here, I'm fine with where the Gophers are at right now. The Badgers were expected to be one of the better teams in the conference this year while the Rodents were picked to be in the bottom third by many. This late in the season, they haven't lost a game on the schedule where a reasonable person would have pointed to in November and said "guaranteed win".

Just like dozens and dozens of other teams in the country, as well as the Badgers, the Gophers have missed a few opportunities to lock up an NCAA bid at this point. But the fact that they close the regular season with two home games to all but seal a tourney bid is hardly reason for dispair at this point. The Wisky game will be a toss-up, with Wisky clearly entering the game playing better basketball. Should be a battle...
 

Well said, Ogee. We couldn't ask for much more. We're struggling, no doubt, but we can still salvage this thing by beating our rivals for a second time while at the same time putting a crimp in their NCAA hopes. We'll have to beat the Badgers by playing well because I don't think they'll beat themselves or choke, but that's the way it should be. Play your way in, don't fall into a bid. We've got a shot at it & this game could go either way. Ditto for the Michigan game. I like the fact we're playing 2 other bubble teams to close the season. Beating Indiana & Iowa at home to end the season wouldn't really tell us much or help our resume. These games can.
 

Hey GV

The next time Keaton Nankiville goes 5-5 on threes let me know - yet you still lost that game to Purdue. Every team has weird stuff happen to them with abnormal events happening along the way. Your record is your record. It may not say exactly how good you are - but your record is what it is, and that's how you get judged.
 

Also...

"The Minnesota game is the real head scratcher."

Really? I would have thought the overtime win against Iona, or perhaps the 2-pt home victory over Idaho State might have been the real head scratchers?
 

SS - sorry but I'm gonna have to add something here and disagree with you. With this analysis, PSU is made to look better, and Minnesota and Wisconsin worse. Phooey. Why? Because since Minnesota and Wisconsin are in the top-50, Penn State is credited with another top-50 win. In actuality, and comparison between bubble teams MUST include how they did against each other, so, I would revise this list:

Ohio State (7): + Penn State (NR)
Michigan (6): + Penn State (NR)
Minnesota (5): + Penn State (NR)
Wisconsin (5): + Penn State (NR) + Penn State (NR)
Penn State (5)

By the way, Joe Lunardi of ESPN has PSU and Michigan the last 2 in, and Minnesota the first 1 out!

By way of reasoning, unless Penn State ends up +2 in the Big Ten win column over the Gophers, the Gophers should have precedence based on SOS and lack of bad losses (PSU probably has 2 - RI and vs. Temple). When you match up Wisconsin and Penn State, Wisconsin is in (beat PSU both times) unless there's a +2 margin. Michigan and PSU split, so this comparison may simply based on BT records, the better one in. THE biggest game this year for the Gophers is NOT vs. Wisconsin. The Badgers are in, not out, basically a lock unless they collapse in their final few games. No, in fact I think that if the Gophers lose against Wisconsin they're still not out. IMO, it's that game against Michigan that matters...whoever wins that is in, the loser out. IF PSU wins their final 3 games, each of which is winnable, they'd be 11-7 and a lock, and you can forget the above comparisons. They can do it - they have vs. Indiana, vs. Illinois, and AT Iowa. Ironically, I think they have a better chance of beating Illinois than winning at Iowa...maybe I'm just being foolish. Or maybe I just figure that f'ing Trent Meacham only plays well against the Gophers, and without him having a stellar game (as usual, I even posted on that at halftime before he really went off that he's a gopher-killer), the Gophers crush Illinois yesterday just based on hustle play. Meacham's momentum crushing shots were the huge difference.

Minn vs. Mich is the game that really matters; Winner's in, loser's out.
Mich vs. Wisc. is not nearly as important, and Minn. vs. Wisc. probably doesn't make much difference.






SelectionSunday said:
Jerry Palm updated his bracket today. Has Gophers as #9 seed playing #8 West Virginia in Kansas City in West Region.

His matchups for Minneapolis are: #2 Louisville vs. #15 Long Beach State; #7 Utah vs. #10 Arizona; #3 Kansas vs. #14 Buffalo; and #6 Gonzaga vs. #11 Virginia Tech.

Interesting considering these are our last 2 opponents? Wisconsin and Michigan are among Palm's "last 4 in" while Penn State is among his "first 4 out." So basically at this point he's saying the Gophers are #5 in the Big 10's pecking order, Michigan & Wisconsin are #6/7 and Penn State is #8. I'd put Michigan #5 in the pecking order, ahead of the Gophers, Wisconsin & Penn State.

Among the 5 Big Ten bubble teams, here are their top-50 wins. Using this limited information, judge for yourself how these teams stack up vs. one another.

Ohio State (6): Butler (20), Purdue (28), Minnesota (36), at Miami-Florida (44), at Michigan (46), Michigan (46)

Michigan (5): Duke (2), Illinois (14), Purdue (28), vs. UCLA (33), Minnesota (36)

Penn State (5): at Michigan State (6), at Illinois (14), Purdue (28), Minnesota (36), Michigan (46)

Minnesota (4): vs. Louisville (11), Illinois (14), at Wisconsin (29), Ohio State (40)

Wisconsin (3): Illinois (14), Ohio State (40), at Michigan (46)

In truth, in terms of beating quality competition the Badgers' resume easily is the worst of these 5, despite a strong overall schedule. But the Badgers are finishing strong, the Gophers are not. That is important & it matters to the committee. In terms of figuring out the final pecking order, the Badgers/Wolverines game this weekend is every bit as important as the Gophers/Badgers game next week.
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Ogee Oglethorpe said:
The Badger fan is right, face the facts. The Badgers are clearly the only team in the nation to have lost a couple of games this year that they should have won. Nobody else has dumped down the stretch and lost disappointing games. Apparently their whole season has been defined by that collapse against the Gophers?

Not to get into a verbal sparring match but this is a pretty ridiculous argument, GV. And to say only a handful of teams have lost 10-pt leads in the last 4 minutes is a little short-sighted as well. Northwestern did it a few weeks ago in something around 2 minutes or less.
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Again, Ogee, do not try to use logic with this clown. He'll have none of it.

And by the way, the Badgers didn't blow those games. Just 6 games in a row of 10,000:1anomalies in addition to the refs being out to get Bo. Oh, and Venus aligning with Mars. That is the only logical way that the Gophers (and the other teams that spanked the Badge during that stretch) could possibly have won.

And not only do I watch the game, band dork, I played the game. And above the co-ed, intramural marching band level that you must have. Your "knowledge" of the game speaks for itself.
 

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