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SelectionSunday

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A great night all around for our beloved Rodents, as they finally get their third RPI top-50 win. Actually, all three of those wins are vs. teams in the top 19 (see below). North Carolina (5 straight) & West Virginia (3 straight) make the night even better for the Gophers by continuing their recent winning streaks.

Now the Gophers need to follow it up by beating a team they're supposed to beat (Iowa), something the Gophers have been good at this season, save for Virginia.

All RPI references are courtesy of Jerry Palm @ CollegeRPI.com.

RPI Sweet 16
1. Kansas (16-0)
2. San Diego State (16-0)
3. Syracuse (17-0)
4. BYU (16-1)
5. Pitt (16-1)
6. UConn (13-2)
7. Ohio State (17-0)
8. Duke (15-1)
9. Georgetown (12-5)
10. Florida (13-3)
11. Kentucky (13-3)
12. Purdue (15-2)
13. West Virginia (11-4)
14. Villanova (15-1)
15. Notre Dame (14-3)
16. St. John's (10-5)

Big Ten in the RPI
7. Ohio State (17-0)
12. Purdue (15-2)
22. Minnesota (13-4)
23. Illinois (13-4)
24. Michigan State (10-5)
34. Wisconsin (12-4)
57. Northwestern (11-4)
59. Penn State (10-6)
77. Michigan (10-6)
163. Iowa (7-9)
179. Indiana (9-8)

Top-50 Wins by Big Ten Teams (16)
Minnesota (3) -- PURDUE (12), vs. West Virginia (13), vs. North Carolina (19)
Illinois (3) -- NORTH CAROLINA (19), WISCONSIN (34), vs. Gonzaga (42)
Michigan State (3) -- MINNESOTA (22), vs. Washington (28), WISCONSIN (34)
Ohio State (2) -- @ Florida (10), MINNESOTA (22)
Wisconsin (2) -- MINNESOTA (22), vs. Boston College (29)
Penn State (2) -- ILLINOIS (23), MICHIGAN STATE (24)
Michigan (1) -- HARVARD (50)

Gopher Nonconference Opponents in the RPI
13. West Virginia (11-4, 3-2)
19. North Carolina (12-4, 2-0)
113. Akron (9-6, 1-1)
145. Virginia (10-6, 1-1)
168. Saint Joseph's (5-11, 0-3)
182. Siena (5-10, 2-3)
198. Wofford (7-9, 4-1)
204. North Dakota State (7-7, 3-3)
207. Western Kentucky (5-10, 0-3)
220. South Dakota State (10-5, 4-2)
236. Cornell (4-10)
295. Eastern Kentucky (6-9, 3-4)

Big Ten Road Wins (9)
Ohio State (3) -- Michigan (77), Iowa (163), Indiana (179)
Purdue (2) -- Penn State (59), Michigan (77)
Michigan State (1) -- Northwestern (57)
Illinois (1) -- Iowa (163)
Northwestern (1) -- Iowa (163)
Penn State (1) -- Indiana (179)

BCS Conferences Head-to-Head (120 games played)
1. Big East (25-15, 62.5%)
2. Big 12 (24-20, 54.5%)
3. ACC (24-25, 49%)
4. Big Ten (17-19, 47.2%)
5. SEC (19-23, 45.2%)
6. Pac 10 (11-18, 37.9%)

The Undefeateds (4)
Kansas, Ohio State, San Diego State, Syracuse

Games to Watch This Weekend
Saturday
Binghamton @ Maine (winner leads America East)
Boston College @ Miami-Florida
Cincinnati @ Syracuse (another chance at legitimacy for Bearcats)
Dayton @ Xavier
Illinois @ Wisconsin
Maryland @ Villanova (Terps are in dire need of a quality win)
Mizzou @ Texas A&M
Northwestern @ Michigan State (NW could use a quality win of any kind)
Oklahoma State @ Colorado (Buffs now on NCAA tourney radar)
Old Dominion @ Hofstra (CAA-leading Pride has rebounded nicely since 0-3 finish in Puerto Rico)
San Diego State @ New Mexico (Alford's Lobos need a marquee scalp)
Vandy @ Tennessee ('Dores getting sinking & Pearl-less Vols at the right time?)
Sunday
Notre Dame @ St. John's (Lav's guys in midst of brutal Big East stretch)
Purdue @ West Virginia (Boilers still seeking first RPI top-50 win)
Monday
Kansas @ Baylor (Bears have good players but no wins of significance)
Kansas State @ Mizzou (what the h*ll is wrong with K-State?)
Syracuse @ Pitt (two early favorites for #1 seeds)
Villanova @ UConn
 

Yes! SS is back with his reports. Don't take this the wrong way, but I love you SS. I've said it before and I'll say it again, you should start a webpage and reap the benefits of your work.
 

Hope UNC and WVU can continue to put together solid years. Definitely need to avoid that dreaded "bad loss". This Iowa game is almost as much of a must win as the Purdue game was, if not more. You can't put losses on the board at home to teams with RPIs in the 160s.
 

I don't take it the wrong way TJ. ... and thanks. I wish I had the tech savvy to do a blog or something like that, but the truth is I just don't have the desire to start one. It's enough satisfaction for me to have a few folks on GH look at some of this stuff on occasion.
 

Monty, I agree with you about avoiding bad losses and obviously I hope none are forthcoming, but I do think the Gophers have given themselves some decent margin for error. That hasn't been the case in our first two NCAA seasons under Tubby. Even the year we beat the eventual overall #1 seed (Louisville) the Gophers didn't have much to go along with that because of a really weak nonconference schedule, and ditto last year with Butler.

To have two wins outside of conference the likes of UNC & West Virginia is huge. The Gophers have given themselves some breathing room, so long as UNC & West Virginia continue to have good seasons. My expectations are much more than a 9-9 (regular season) Big Ten record, but I feel pretty safe in saying at this point that the Gophers would pretty much be a lock for the NCAA simply by hitting the .500 mark, especially considering there are now three additional at-large spots. The same can't be said for Michigan, Northwestern and Penn State, who did nothing outside of the Big Ten.

I hope we're not having this (bubble) conversation on March 13th.
 


The Strib would better to take half of Myron's salary, give it to SS, and let one of thier tech people post his stuff. It's far superior to most of thier college hoops coverage.
 

I also like these reports but SS is making me nervous. This is the Gophers and if there is a
curse ... just saying ... let's not get ahead of ourselves.
 

Tj, I like when you post also. (Joining the love fest) Not trying to start a debate, but SS gives a little rosier picture about the Gophers chances this year than you did a while back. I'm thinking this Purdue win and the opportunity to run off a few wins might have you feeling a little more confident? Keep upthe great work SS, I really enjoy it.
 

I hear ya' Mulligan. I don't mind peeking ahead a little bit, but I know there's still a lot of season left and this Gophers season still can go either way.

One game a time, not too high, not too low, is still the best way to go. ... the rhythm of a season.
 




fan of Ray Williams said:
Tj, I like when you post also. (Joining the love fest) Not trying to start a debate, but SS gives a little rosier picture about the Gophers chances this year than you did a while back. I'm thinking this Purdue win and the opportunity to run off a few wins might have you feeling a little more confident? Keep upthe great work SS, I really enjoy it.
Click to expand...

Thanks - appreciate the comment. If you remember, I was was referencing Ken Pomeroy's projections and he was pessimistic, which gave me reason for concern given how accurately his efficiency formulas have projected teams over the years. So, I was mildly concernced about someone else's less-than-rosey outlook. I think at the time Pomeroy had us going 7-11 in the Big Ten, which would leave us out of the tourney. I don't think there's any way we end up 7-11, so I wasn't overly concerned about that part of it. I was thinking 9-9 was possible, but it appears that would get us in, so I'm less concerned today.

Short answer, last night makes us all feel better!!
 

tjgopher said:
Thanks - appreciate the comment. If you remember, I was was referencing Ken Pomeroy's projections and he was pessimistic, which gave me reason for concern given how accurately his efficiency formulas have projected teams over the years. So, I was mildly concernced about someone else's less-than-rosey outlook. I think at the time Pomeroy had us going 7-11 in the Big Ten, which would leave us out of the tourney. I don't think there's any way we end up 7-11, so I wasn't overly concerned about that part of it. I was thinking 9-9 was possible, but it appears that would get us in, so I'm less concerned today.

Short answer, last night makes us all feel better!!
Click to expand...

Well he has us going 8-10 now LOL.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I don't take it the wrong way TJ. ... and thanks. I wish I had the tech savvy to do a blog or something like that, but the truth is I just don't have the desire to start one. It's enough satisfaction for me to have a few folks on GH look at some of this stuff on occasion.
Click to expand...

MV over at FBT should take you in ...
 



I am looking forward to the quadruple-header of BT games tomorrow on the network, and on Sunday MN/Iowa and Purdue/WVa. Should be good times.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I don't take it the wrong way TJ. ... and thanks. I wish I had the tech savvy to do a blog or something like that, but the truth is I just don't have the desire to start one. It's enough satisfaction for me to have a few folks on GH look at some of this stuff on occasion.
Click to expand...

SS, I'm a left-brain dominant, anal retentive, accountant type and I love the stuff you bring. In fact, on occasion I borrow your format or analysis criteria and post it on another school's (ASU) board with info related to them. Sometimes I even give you credit for your contribution here. :eek:

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
 

Purdue vs West Virginia Question...

Which would be better for the Gophers... A Purdue win over West Virginia or a Purdue loss to West Virginia?
 

sec105 said:
Which would be better for the Gophers... A Purdue win over West Virginia or a Purdue loss to West Virginia?
Click to expand...
The team you play twice.

Plus it would indirectly, very slightly bump the whole conference, instead of just one team.
 

Purdue, but really it kind of depends on how you look at it.

I say Purdue because we play them twice and now have a chance to beat them twice. However, other than it would mean a Big Ten team losing to a Big East team, it won't bother me much if West Virginia wins. I always want the Gophers to hold wins over NCAA-qualifying teams from outside of the Big Ten. That means pulling for Huggy Bear & Roy Boy, especially, the rest of the season.

For the record, I think the Boilers will beat WV. I was impressed with Purdue last night, even on a night Moore didn't have it. If Lewis Jackson plays like that most of the time, they'll really have something. Not many guys blow by Nolen off the dribble, but Jackson did it at least 2-3 times last night. He's quick as a hiccup and he made some shots. He's improved a ton.
 

Hopefully we're not going to be in a spot where it matters much, but if we're a bubble team, I'd root for WVA. It always helps to have a marquee non-conference win to point to, and WVU will probably end up as our best one. It would be helpful if they finished in the Top 25, etc. and a win over Purdue would go a long way. But they have enough other chances in the Big East for quality wins, so it shouldn't matter much, and I can't stand rooting for Thugins.
 


I'd say WVU. Our chances of winning at Purdue are slim-to-none, so in my mind it doesn't really matter that we play them twice, since we won't win twice over them. Purdue is going to be a top-25 RPI team in all likelihood. A WVU win over Purdue would help keep the RPI of the mountaineers high, since their RPI is more likely to go down as the year progresses.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Purdue, but really it kind of depends on how you look at it.

I say Purdue because we play them twice and now have a chance to beat them twice. However, other than it would mean a Big Ten team losing to a Big East team, it won't bother me much if West Virginia wins. I always want the Gophers to hold wins over NCAA-qualifying teams from outside of the Big Ten. That means pulling for Huggy Bear & Roy Boy, especially, the rest of the season.

For the record, I think the Boilers will beat WV. I was impressed with Purdue last night, even on a night Moore didn't have it. If Lewis Jackson plays like that most of the time, they'll really have something. Not many guys blow by Nolen off the dribble, but Jackson did it at least 2-3 times last night. He's quick as a hiccup and he made some shots. He's improved a ton.
Click to expand...

Selection Sunday - I've been on this site long enough to realize you're probably the most knowledgable, level headed, unbiased guy around. From what you've seen from the Boilers this season, would they be the #1 team in the country and a national title favorite with Robbie Hummel?
 


I don't know about #1, but I certainly would have them right up there with Duke (with Irving) and Kansas and just ahead of Pitt & Ohio State (I'm not sold on Syracuse). I know it's hard for Purdue fans not to think about what could have been, but you still do have a very good basketball team. Next year at this time (assuming he gets healthy) you'll be very glad you have Hummel to help bridge the gap to Painter's next crop of players.
 

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:
Selection Sunday - I've been on this site long enough to realize you're probably the most knowledgable, level headed, unbiased guy around. From what you've seen from the Boilers this season, would they be the #1 team in the country and a national title favorite with Robbie Hummel?
Click to expand...

I know it wasn't directed at me, but IMO they would definitley be right up there. IF Hummel is 100%. Tearing ACL's and such is often considered a 2-year injury. But after seeing Johnson last night, wow is he good. Jackson was better than I expected as well. Moore I was unimpressed with, rarely even noticed him being on the floor.

I don't think they would be as good as Duke or OSU or some other elite teams, but they'd be in the conversation. Granted, if Hummel is not 100% ... it would be interesting to see where he would be at and how effective.
 

With Siena and Wofford's RPI's almost at 200, do they still count as good wins, and do the RPI's of some of our non-con opponents start improving since most of them are done getting paid to lose by the major conference teams?
 

Anything in the top 100 is generally considered a good win.

Overall, I think our nonconference mid-major opponents have been disappointments, especially Western Kentucky and Wofford, and to a lesser extent Siena (they lost a lot from last season but still did have 2 really good players returning).
 

scher215 said:
"....I don't think they would be as good as Duke or OSU or some other elite teams."
Click to expand...

Maybe I'm the only one, but I don't see OSU as all that? If the BT officials would have even considered allowing it, given one or two different interpretations/applications of the rules, we could have easily defeated OSU on their home court last week. If the BT officials will ever consider letting the players decide the outcome of the contest, we might, very well, defeat OSU in the Barn on February 6th.
 

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:
Selection Sunday - I've been on this site long enough to realize you're probably the most knowledgable, level headed, unbiased guy around. From what you've seen from the Boilers this season, would they be the #1 team in the country and a national title favorite with Robbie Hummel?
Click to expand...

IMO if the answer to the question "Would they have beaten Richmond and Minnesota with a healthy Hummel?" is yes, they you're looking at an undefeated team ranked in the top 5 at minimum, thus certainly making it a part of the short list of favorites.

Before last night I thought Purdue's downfall would be having a PG who cannot score, but Jackson proved against one of the better defenders in the league he can get to the hoop and finish. He will need to keep doing this to keep defenses honest.
 

While the win and things in general are looking good right now we have a history of losing games in the Big10 we shouldn't.

'09-'10: @ Michigan, vs Michigan, @ Northwestern
'08-'09: @ Michigan, vs Michigan, @ Northwestern, @ PSU

I think I'll wait until we get through some of those games before I feel "we should be a lock for an at large bid".
 

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