Cleveland Plain Dealer: A 3 percent chance Minnesota beats Ohio State

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BleedGopher

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per the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

Chance to beat the Buckeyes: 3 percent. Once again, we could be underestimating an opponent here, one coming off an eight-win bowl season. And with that Michigan State game the week before, this is an interesting spot on the schedule for Ohio State. The Buckeyes have never played a Jerry Kill Minnesota team, with the last matchup between the schools a showdown four years ago between Jim Tressel and Jeff Horton, the interim coach who took over after Tim Brewster was fired during the 2010 season. So Ohio State may not have a feel for what this type of Minnesota team plays like. But it's hard to avoid the history - Ohio State is 24-1 against Minnesota since 1982. So 3 percent, or maybe 4 percent, seems about right.

How they could compete with Ohio State: If Minnesota is something like 7-2 or 6-3 entering the game, and with its schedule, that could happen, maybe Kill can make some magic happen. And now that the Metrodome is a thing of the past, there's always the chance that some nasty Minneapolis weather in November could take away Ohio State's speed edge and level the playing field. The Gophers may need confidence, snow, genius coaching and a crazy crowd to do it, but get all four going and this may not be impossible. But just three out of four probably won't cut it.

Projection: The Buckeyes and Golden Gophers will be playing for the first time in four years, and it should certainly be closer than the 52-10 OSU win in 2010. Minnesota beat Nebraska and Penn State last season, breaking a 16-game losing streak to the Cornhuskers. Are the Gophers ready to do the same to Ohio State? Bet that Urban Meyer will be reminding his team of what Minnesota did to Nebraska a year ago. This may be the week that Meyer makes his strongest push of the season to make sure the Buckeyes don't take an opponent for granted. Off the juice from the home crowd, this is the kind of game Minnesota could lead for a bit. But it doesn't seem like the kind of game the Gophers, 17-21 in three seasons under Kill, are quite ready to win.

http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/2014/07/a_3_percent_chance_minnesota_b.html

Go Gophers!!
 


The Gophers may need confidence, snow, genius coaching and a crazy crowd to do it, but get all four going and this may not be impossible.
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Confidence check, Snow and how about 25 degrees, check. Coaching genius, check. A crazy crowd, we need to work on this.
 

So will the reporter give me/ find me 97-1 odds for a Gopher win? I will gladly put $100 on that. I know he is just writing an article but 3% is way low.
 

afurry91 said:
Sounds about right.
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Winnipeg, "So will the reporter give me/ find me 97-1 odds for a Gopher win? I will gladly put $100 on that. I know he is just writing an article but 3% is way low."

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I agree with both afurry and Winnipeg, but would drop Winnipeg's bet to $50 (I'm cheap) and strike the word "way."
 


Winnipegopher said:
So will the reporter give me/ find me 97-1 odds for a Gopher win? I will gladly put $100 on that. I know he is just writing an article but 3% is way low.
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If I had to give us a percent chance to win one game against Ohio State, it would certainly be close to a 1 in 100 type thing. Since 1969 we are 2-36. Knowing that and the fact that Ohio State is a national title contender again this year, I would have a hard time giving us anything over 5%.
 

GW would only give us a 2% chance to come out with a win.

So there is a chance.
 

Winnipegopher said:
So will the reporter give me/ find me 97-1 odds for a Gopher win? I will gladly put $100 on that. I know he is just writing an article but 3% is way low.
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You're off on your odds calculating...

4% (we'll use that rather than 3 as it's an easier number to work with) would equate to 25/1 odds or once in 25 attempts will the Gophers win.

Either way, seeing as its a home game, if we are 7-2 going in, I will all but guarantee we get better odds from Vegas leading into this game, and I know nothing about betting and haven't ever bet on a football game in my life.
 

It's a tough matchup but I'm thinking more like 10-15%. 3% is just too low, save those for the Kent State type matchups on your schedule.
 



"So, you're saying there's a chance.........."

By that point of the season, injuries can have a big impact. If the Gophs are reasonably healthy, and OSU is a little nicked up, it could be a 10-15% chance or higher. On the other hand, if the Gophs are banged up in key positions, the chances of winning could be a lot lower. For the Gophs to win, they are going to need a few breaks - maybe a defensive TD or a special teams TD, and the OL has to be able to hold their own.
 

I notice they didn't mention Braxton Miller not playing, not to be a jinx, but Ohio State would be a very different team without him. If Miller should be injured there would not be seamless transition. The game it occurred in and the first game afterwards would be particularly problematic.
 

jaymil said:
It's a tough matchup but I'm thinking more like 10-15%. 3% is just too low, save those for the Kent State type matchups on your schedule.
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I was thinking the exact same percentages. 10-15%, actually i don't know if it would be that different from the Nebraska percentages last year.
 






Winasota Gopher said:
You're off on your odds calculating...

4% (we'll use that rather than 3 as it's an easier number to work with) would equate to 25/1 odds or once in 25 attempts will the Gophers win.

Either way, seeing as its a home game, if we are 7-2 going in, I will all but guarantee we get better odds from Vegas leading into this game, and I know nothing about betting and haven't ever bet on a football game in my life.
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Duh. Thanks for the correction. Somehow I knew I was wrong. If you look at it that way it is more reasonable. At 25-1 I would certainly have to think about it.
 

Winnipegopher said:
Duh. Thanks for the correction. Somehow I knew I was wrong. If you look at it that way it is more reasonable. At 25-1 I would certainly have to think about it.
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32.333333333333 to 1 would be a 3% chance, but that doesn't take into account the casino's built in advantage, so you'd probably see something like 18 to 1 if Vegas pegged it at a 3% chance. In other terms, it'd be a +1800 moneyline for the Gophers, and I couldn't find a conversion to point spread for this, but I deduce it'd be a greater than 21 point spread.

Anyhow, if he wants to take the casino out of it, I'd gladly put down a wager at 32.33 to 1. And it's early, but I'd probably take +1800 too (the breakeven is if the Gophers win a little less than 5.3% of the time).
 

I'm ok with 3%. If we were to beat OSU if would be a huge upset and unexpected. Gophers are improved but Buckeyes are elite.
 


There's really no point in Minnesota even showing up for this one I guess. Can they just forfeit?
 

hyaluronic said:
32.333333333333 to 1 would be a 3% chance, but that doesn't take into account the casino's built in advantage, so you'd probably see something like 18 to 1 if Vegas pegged it at a 3% chance. In other terms, it'd be a +1800 moneyline for the Gophers, and I couldn't find a conversion to point spread for this, but I deduce it'd be a greater than 21 point spread.

Anyhow, if he wants to take the casino out of it, I'd gladly put down a wager at 32.33 to 1. And it's early, but I'd probably take +1800 too (the breakeven is if the Gophers win a little less than 5.3% of the time).
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This kind of talk makes Art Schlichter sit up and take notice.
 

mkAz said:
There's really no point in Minnesota even showing up for this one I guess. Can they just forfeit?
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These types of comments get so tiresome. This is the offseason. All articles are projections and are mainly framed up as opinions. Yet every article someone has to come on and make the same cliche comment "why even show up".
 

Well there was only a 2% chance of Mbakwe getting a 6th year so...
 


maroonedinCA said:
These types of comments get so tiresome. This is the offseason. All articles are projections and are mainly framed up as opinions. Yet every article someone has to come on and make the same cliche comment "why even show up".
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Why do you feel the need to comment on these types of comments? Your running commentary is tiresome.
 


maroonedinCA said:
Read your own post, putz.
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Are you really so arrogant and clueless that you can't see the difference?

Edit: To keep this on topic....I'd say 3% is a bit low...I'd say more like 10-20% chance of a Gopher victory.
 

If this game were in Columbus, I'd buy 3%. I think we have now progressed to the point where saying we have only a 3% chance of winning any home game is absurd, unless it would be an Alabama or Oregon.
 

Word said:
Are you really so arrogant and clueless that you can't see the difference?

Edit: To keep this on topic....I'd say 3% is a bit low...I'd say more like 10-20% chance of a Gopher victory.
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There is no arrogance or cluelessness about it. Your bias makes them different in your eyes but they're really not any different.

Also, since we've beat them exactly twice since 1969 I absolutely agree with you that we have approximately a 20% chance of winning this game. :rolleyes:
 

Fuch the odds...just kick asses and take names.
 

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