Claeys as an underdog

BarnBoy

Active member
Joined
Jan 12, 2009
Messages
4,218
Reaction score
21
Points
38
What is Claeys record as an underdog? Does anyone have a way to look this up?

Looking for healthy discussion around this topic. From my armchair, it feels like we have a shortage of upsets and program-defining wins.

Are their any? How many should their be?

Need to start winning some games we aren't supposed to win. We're we dogs against Iowa? So 0-3 this year? Someone help me out.
 

Shortage of upsets?

Tracy does not yet have a quality win.

Sorry to be a wet blanket. It's just the truth.
 


Shortage of upsets?

Tracy does not yet have a quality win.

Sorry to be a wet blanket. It's just the truth.

Fair enough. I'm not as down on ugly wins as others. Just looking to analyze the Claeys Era losses.
 



The good news is that we haven't lost any games we should have won under Claeys, the bad news is that we haven't won any games we were dogs in. By this account you better win a few games you're not favored in or you better be the favorite every time, now that would be something. I still can't get over that loss in Illinois two years ago, but Kill was our coach then.
 


Here is a look at the 16 games under Claeys. It's pretty easy to draw some of these conclusions without math, but I'm a nerd and trying to avoid work right now:

Gophers_Line.png


Claeys has coached 16 games:

  • In 2015, he beat the line in 5 of 6 games played. Even though we didn't have many wins, it just "felt" like the team played better.
  • In 2016, he's beat the line in only 4 of 10 games played. Many of this year's wins just don't feel as good. Purdue, Oregon State, Colorado State and Rutgers were wins, but we underperformed (relative to the line.)
  • Our only "bright points" of the year have been Indiana State, Maryland and Illinois, where we won and beat the line.

Six of his seven worst games (team performance relative to Vegas line, regardless of win/loss) are THIS YEAR:
  • Rutgers: Line -17.5, win by 2
  • Colorado State: Line -17, win by 7
  • Iowa: Line -2.5, Lose by 7
  • Purdue: Line -18.5, Win by 13
  • Oregon State: Line -12.5, Win by 7

Claeys has been the underdog 7 times (OSU, Mich, Iowa '15, Nebraska, Maryland, Penn State, Wisconson '15) and only won once (Maryland '16). Ouch.

When Claeys' teams are a touchdown or more favorite, he's 6-0.

When the line is less than a touchdown (in either direction), he's 3-3.

In 16 games, Claeys has only been beaten by double digits twice (OSU '15 and Wisconsin '15)

My bottomline:
  • This year's team is playing uninspiring ball. Ugly wins count, but don't get the fanbase excited.
  • Maryland is Claey's only upset (technically), but they had in their backup QB (so did we).
  • Claeys takes care of business against inferior teams. No ugly losses (when favored) in his 16 games. Some ugly wins.
  • He hasn't been able to win a big game yet.
  • PSU and Michigan (last year), stand out as two obvious "what could have been" losses.
  • Our losses this year are by 7, 7 and 3 points.
  • We've only beat the spread in 2 of our last 8 games.
 

Using any of the games where he was an "acting head coach' may be a little disingenuous. He still had Kill "reviewing" him and he probably wasn't making all the decisons himself.

But looking at your summary, understand why you needed to use them.
 









Top Bottom