Chip Scoggins: Tubby probably needs a Sweet 16 appearance to feel completely safe

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BleedGopher

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per Chip:

Smith enters the tournament on the hot seat and probably needs a Sweet 16 appearance to feel completely safe. Anything less should compel athletic director Norwood Teague to make a change, even if Smith’s $2.5 million buyout seems unpalatable. Smith responded to a question about his job security Sunday night by noting that he works in a profession of “What have you done for me lately?”

This is a critical time for Tubby and his program. The Gophers became one of the biggest disappointments in college basketball this season. But they get one final chance to prove themselves, to show that they are indeed a good team capable of achieving success in March. Or they could continue to flounder and look disinterested and just go away quietly.

Selection Sunday is supposed to be a festive occasion for teams to celebrate their season and inclusion in the tournament. The mood around the Gophers felt strangely sullen. The team opted to watch the selection show in private, eschewing the public party many schools choose. At a news conference afterward, Smith, Williams and Hollins spoke repeatedly about their struggles this season and how the tournament provides a second chance. None of them showed any real emotion or outward joy.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/gophers/198714311.html?page=all&prepage=1&c=y#continue

Go Gophers!!
 


Agree...fair or not...these are big games for Tubby. Lose to UCLA and the media will be all over him to lose his job.
 

@gophersnow: Tubby on his status: "I don’t apologize or defend anything because we do the best we can. We do a good job. That’s why we’re NCAA bound."

Go Gophers!!
 



beat ucla then beat the team that's #2 per sagarin to keep your job? that's some stretch goal
 

GopherOhana said:
beat ucla then beat the team that's #2 per sagarin to keep your job? that's some stretch goal
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He dug this hole by sending his team out for inexcusable performances against Iowa, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Purdue. Now he has to make up for it.
 

I don't know how Sagarin rates, but nobody else would have Florida #2. UCLA is young and inconsistent the way it is, and just lost their second best player. Florida (if they make it past the first round) is probably the most beatable of the 3 seeds.

Given the crappy way we finished the season, the committee really did us a favor with this draw.
 

Parski1 said:
Agree...fair or not...these are big games for Tubby. Lose to UCLA and the media will be all over him to lose his job.
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Completely fair. Lose to UCLA and it becomes obvious what to do.
 



BleedGopher said:
@gophersnow: Tubby on his status: "I don’t apologize or defend anything because we do the best we can. We do a good job. That’s why we’re NCAA bound."

Go Gophers!!
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I like the quote, thanks BleedGopher.
 

WanderingGopher said:
I don't know how Sagarin rates, but nobody else would have Florida #2. Florida (if they make it past the first round) is probably the most beatable of the 3 seeds.
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Not sure how you come to this conclusion.

Ken Pom has Florida as the No. 1 team in his calculations.
ESPN's BPI has Florida as the No. 2 team.
Sagarin has Florida as the No. 3 team.
RealtimeRPI has Florida as the No. 8 team.

All of those rankings would suggest a 3-seed for Florida is actually low.
 

afurry91 said:
He dug this hole by sending his team out for inexcusable performances against Iowa, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Purdue. Now he has to make up for it.
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Agreed. If our second half would have gone anywhere near as good as what our team showed itself to be capable of in the first half, then we would be at least a 4 seed and our path to the Sweet 16 would be two teams seeded below us. The coach doesn't get the benefit of relaxed expectations because he played his way into a lower seed.
 

This team is beat up emotionally. The Illinois loss didn't help. Even though we're a 3 point favorite,
I have a feeling if we don't get off to a good start we will melt like the wicked witch of the west. You couldn't ask for a better draw. Second leading scorer is out; UCLA has been out rebounded in 11 of their past 12 games. A game I certainly wouldn't bet on.
 



bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Agreed. If our second half would have gone anywhere near as good as what our team showed itself to be capable of in the first half, then we would be at least a 4 seed and our path to the Sweet 16 would be two teams seeded below us. The coach doesn't get the benefit of relaxed expectations because he played his way into a lower seed.
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why would we relax expectations for next year should tubby's team beat ucla and florida? don't 3 years of consistent results trump 2games?
 

GopherOhana said:
why would we relax expectations for next year should tubby's team beat ucla and florida? don't 3 years of consistent results trump 2games?
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Not when those two games are in the tournament. My expectation for this year was to win a tournament game and get into the round of 32 for the first time in Tubby's tenure. When we were 8 in the country, my hopes had certainly gotten higher than that. However, at the end of the day, if we give Tubby another shot after coming off of his worst two years year, then I have trouble seeing why we fire him if he posts his best season this year. My two year goal is that I expect a Sweet 16 either this year or next, but if he gets us to the round of 32, I won't be calling for his head this offseason.
 

In a strange way, this favorable draw is a mixed blessing for Tubby. The team is favored. There's an expectation now - or at least some confidence - that they'll win it. At least nobody will be able to claim that it was an unrealistic expectation for them to advance a game. I wouldn't require Tubby to get past Florida to keep his job (although a competitive game wouldn't be too much to ask). But when it comes to the UCLA game, it's like, OK, show me what you've got. Can you prepare your team? Can you get them ready to play? What can you do with a clean slate, a second chance? This is a game against a shorthanded team that you can beat and arguably should beat. No excuses. If you're going to say one thing is the test, the deciding factor, this would be it.
 

ruppertflywheel said:
This team is beat up emotionally. The Illinois loss didn't help. Even though we're a 3 point favorite,
I have a feeling if we don't get off to a good start we will melt like the wicked witch of the west. You couldn't ask for a better draw. Second leading scorer is out; UCLA has been out rebounded in 11 of their past 12 games. A game I certainly wouldn't bet on.
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Agree. UCLA was a blessing of a draw for a #6 seed. And the team needs to understand that everything past is irrelevant. Those losses to Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska are meaningless now. Charge forward with a fresh attitude and improved mental toughness. When we're good we rebound as well as anybody in the country, and our defense is a strength. Take care of the ball, and actually move on offense and things will work out.

What that means for Tubby's future? I have no idea if Teague is already setting up criteria for firing him or not, but I can't imagine he stays if we get embarassaed by a dinged up PAC-12 team.
 

WanderingGopher said:
I don't know how Sagarin rates, but nobody else would have Florida #2. UCLA is young and inconsistent the way it is, and just lost their second best player. Florida (if they make it past the first round) is probably the most beatable of the 3 seeds.

Given the crappy way we finished the season, the committee really did us a favor with this draw.
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I agree that UCLA has a major injury, but I think you are taking Florida lightly. Good, athletic, and a great coach...Although I will say if the Gophers play like they can play, they could beat them, they have really only played 2-3 great games all year IMO.
 

I think to only reason to keep him is if he gives you the best shot at the three in state recruits. However his buyout is the same this year and next year. Teague can get on with his plan by letting him go after this season, based on the fact they get worse as season goes on and the kids that have left the program and been successful elsewhere.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
I think to only reason to keep him is if he gives you the best shot at the three in state recruits. However his buyout is the same this year and next year. Teague can get on with his plan by letting him go after this season, based on the fact they get worse as season goes on and the kids that have left the program and been successful elsewhere.
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Again...No way in h@ll they spend 2.5 million for another buyout. Already trashed for money spent on Brewster and UNC....will not happen again. It's just a pipe dream for some of you Tubby Bashers.
 

Parski1 said:
Again...No way in h@ll they spend 2.5 million for another buyout. Already trashed for money spent on Brewster and UNC....will not happen again. It's just a pipe dream for some of you Tubby Bashers.
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Then he stays for at least another two years. Again buyout is same next year.
 

Parski1 said:
Again...No way in h@ll they spend 2.5 million for another buyout. Already trashed for money spent on Brewster and UNC....will not happen again. It's just a pipe dream for some of you Tubby Bashers.
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I wouldn't be too sure about that.
 


Parski1 said:
Again...No way in h@ll they spend 2.5 million for another buyout. Already trashed for money spent on Brewster and UNC....will not happen again. It's just a pipe dream for some of you Tubby Bashers.
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If they have donors who are willing to pay for all or some of it, it may be easier for it to happen than you think. I'm not saying that is the case, but it certainly could be.
 

Parski1 said:
Again...No way in h@ll they spend 2.5 million for another buyout. Already trashed for money spent on Brewster and UNC....will not happen again. It's just a pipe dream for some of you Tubby Bashers.
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GophersInIowa said:
If they have donors who are willing to pay for all or some of it, it may be easier for it to happen than you think. I'm not saying that is the case, but it certainly could be.
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There is always the chance that Tubby could 'step down' also.

If Maturi was still around, Tubby for sure would be back.
 

station19 said:
There is always the chance that Tubby could 'step down' also.

If Maturi was still around, Tubby for sure would be back.
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Plus it would be a major blow to the credibility of both Teague and Ellis, one of which openly criticized nearly every aspect of the program a week ago.
 

goldengophers said:
Plus it would be a major blow to the credibility of both Teague and Ellis, one of which openly criticized nearly every aspect of the program a week ago.
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Yup. People don't seem to understand that Teague and Ellis are big on basketball. Especially considering VCU didn't even have a football team.

If there are enough donors who won't buy tickets / won't donate / won't buy a practice facility with Tubby still here or more winning, that buyout is nothing.

I don't think any amount is really too high for Teague if it means he improves the basketball team.

I would hope 2.5 million isn't the sole reason we retain any coach. Well, he's never won a single game for us in 8 years, but that buyout, yikes. Can't fire the guy.

IMO, Teague and Ellis will make the right basketball decision for this program. Period.
 

scher215 said:
Yup. People don't seem to understand that Teague and Ellis are big on basketball. Especially considering VCU didn't even have a football team.

If there are enough donors who won't buy tickets / won't donate / won't buy a practice facility with Tubby still here or more winning, that buyout is nothing.

I don't think any amount is really too high for Teague if it means he improves the basketball team.

I would hope 2.5 million isn't the sole reason we retain any coach. Well, he's never won a single game for us in 8 years, but that buyout, yikes. Can't fire the guy.

IMO, Teague and Ellis will make the right basketball decision for this program. Period.
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I agree, however I don't think Teague, in his own mind, has made a decision on Tubby yet. IMO Teague is waiting to see how they do in the tournament, if and that's a big if, the team gets on a hot streak in this tournament and goes deep into the tournament Tubby will be back.
 

wdgold said:
I agree, however I don't think Teague, in his own mind, has made a decision on Tubby yet. IMO Teague is waiting to see how they do in the tournament, if and that's a big if, the team gets on a hot streak in this tournament and goes deep into the tournament Tubby will be back.
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Agreed. It will be based on Tubby's entire tenure, including his full 6th season.
 


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