Caution on overoptimism about effect of Devoe's return

[cncmin]

Guys, I'm as excited as most of the rest of you that Devoe is coming back. He is a very good player, and gives the Gophers another option. The potential problems, off the top of my head, are these:
1. Right now the team is playing very well together, and there's no guarantee that he'll fit right back in.
2. He's going to be taking away some minutes from some very productive players: in particular that being the two seniors, who are really playing well so far this year. Reducing Al or Blake's minutes won't necessarily help the team. And the way the two of them are working so well together this year...
3. He may be over-anxious to reprove himself. It happens. And we should be prepared in case he has a couple off-games to begin with. Perhaps he'll come back amazing. Odds are it'll take a few games for him to get into a good flow again.

As for the great possibilities: Pick your poison, college basketball coaches: do you want to key on Nolen, Blake, Devoe, Trevor, or Ralph/Colton at this point? This is the most-dangerous offensive lineup the team has had since Bobby J., Sam, Eric/Quincy, Courtney J., and John. The potential that Devoe and Blake have on opening each other up are amazing: with the two of them in the game, a team cannot play zone D. With Nolen and Trevor in the game, a team can hardly afford to play man D. Finally we could have a team with nightmare matchups that only the likes of MSU, Ill, and OSU ever seem to have in the Big Ten. The key will be to get everyone on the same page - win as a team.

Anyway, while the dreaming of the last paragraph is fun to do, reality suggests that it won't be that easy, and adding Devoe back to the team is not simply a +9.4-point per game advantage to the Gopher scoring differential. Even if Devoe is great, he could detract from things that others are doing and have a negative effect on the team (though this is hard to imagine). Still, between that and the top-20 ranking, I think Gopher fans need to temper their enthusiasm...at least a bit

 

[howeda7]

You make valid points, but the team will need him badly before the season is over. Right now they're an Al Nolen ankle twist away from a huge mess. That's no way to continue. The timing of bringing him back is ideal in that regard. Even if his return causes a hiccup in chemistry, it shouldn't impact thier ability to beat teams like SDSU and St. Joe's. UVa is the only game left in NC that really strikes me as a possible loss.

 

[oleboy41]

While normally it is a caution to bring a top guy into the mix when the team is playing great without him, it is different with this team. We cannot expect to make much noise in the B10 without a real backup PG and with our starting guards having to play 36+ minutes every night. We saw last year that Tubby will go to 3 guards if he feels its his best lineup and I expect our crunch time lineup to usually include Al, Blake, Devoe and some combo of the bigs. Also Devoe is a scorer but not in the Westbrook mold where he dominates the ball and disrupts offensive flow. Lastly, while the freshmen have played well, Mav shouldn't see the court this year once conference season starts based on what he's shown so far, and Armelin is talented but still fairly raw. We'll likely have a 6 man rotation for the 1-3 spots with Armelin seeing a few minutes per half sort of like Rodney last year and the other 5 playing the bulk of the minutes

 

[MinnySunDevil]

You guys currently have minutes to burn at the guard spots. There is little reason all 3 can't clock in the 25-30 min range presuming you occasionally go with a small lineup. Deep team.

 

[cncmin]

You guys currently have minutes to burn at the guard spots. There is little reason all 3 can't clock in the 25-30 min range presuming you occasionally go with a small lineup. Deep team.

It's funny - when the season started, I didn't feel like the the team was deep at all. Then, with Devoe back, Mo, Chip, and Austin all playing better than I expected (being freshmen and all, against pretty good competition), the reality of the situation is that the Gophers have at least 10 players right now that can contibute quality minutes on the floor. Some of the young guys may not get much playing time this year, but as on any other quality basketball team, they'll grow as they wait "their turn".

I thought the loss of Cobbs was going to be rough. With Al's play, Devoe's return, and the quality play of Chip, the loss of Cobbs may be a non-factor.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Will panic set in if Gophers start 1-3?

The results of the past weekend certainly have enhanced my expectations for the season, but a friendly word of caution. ...

Results/performances like we had this weekend will be much more difficult to duplicate once the Big Ten season starts. It's a lot more difficult to "do what you want" vs. teams that know you inside & out, who have familiarity with and know the tendencies of your players from previous seasons. Scouting reports will kick in (and I realize that works both ways).

I suspect after a (likely) 12-0 nonconference record that if the Gophers struggle in their difficult early-season Big Ten stretch (say, 1-3), panic will set in on this board. After seeing the results in Puerto Rico, and especially knowing we have Trevor Mbakwe, we shouldn't panic. He's an element this program hasn't had in quite some time.

 

[oleboy41]

Another thing. Like SS said, once B10 play starts and we start seeing teams that know us, we'll be very happy to have Devoe back when teams start throwing zones at us.

 

[Frink]

Devoe

+1 to SS and oleboy's posts. I loved what I saw from our guards this week but it will help to have a new look to throw at Big 10 teams. In a best case scenario the threat of Devoe opens up things for them and means we don't have to count on them playing 35 minutes a game during the heavy part of the schedule.

 

[book]

Devoe was the best player on the Canadian trip. Can't help but to get him back. We need another 3 point shooter.

 

[JGopher]

Very good point SS. There's a good possibility we lose 3 in a row at the start. In that case I will try to steer clear of everyone jumping off the cliff here. I can see it now...

I think losing early Big Ten games will be a great wake up call for the team. This will be the 6th or 7th time a lot of these guys have played each other. And, it's the only way to expose the real weaknesses of the team.

 

[Roland Brooks]

Devoe

Gophers need Devoe! If the Gophers are to make a move and compete in the Big Ten for a title then win a couple games in the tourney they need Devoe.

I like Devoe in with the second team and when the Gophers go to 3 guards.. Lots of great guards in the Big Ten and while Maverick is dong ok he would get exposed against the better teams not to mention if Al gets in foul trouble...

 

[josh087]

The results of the past weekend certainly have enhanced my expectations for the season, but a friendly word of caution. ...

Results/performances like we had this weekend will be much more difficult to duplicate once the Big Ten season starts. It's a lot more difficult to "do what you want" vs. teams that know you inside & out, who have familiarity with and know the tendencies of your players from previous seasons. Scouting reports will kick in (and I realize that works both ways).

I suspect after a (likely) 12-0 nonconference record that if the Gophers struggle in their difficult early-season Big Ten stretch (say, 1-3), panic will set in on this board. After seeing the results in Puerto Rico, and especially knowing we have Trevor Mbakwe, we shouldn't panic. He's an element this program hasn't had in quite some time.

Agreed. A 1-3 BT start is not only a possibility, it is a probability, with games @ OSU, MSU, and Wisc. Arguably our 3 toughest BT road games of the season, and for sure 3 of the 4 toughest right out of the gate. I don't expect a lot of panic from those on this board (I know I won't), but the media/uninformed general public could turn negative unnecessarily with the 1-3 start. Remember, Ohio State was 1-3 in the BT last year. Granted, some of that was without Evan Turner, but still.

We were definitely fortunate to play OSU without Evan Turner last year in the barn, although whoever their #21 was almost single-handedly won the game.

 

[underground629]

He definitely can fit that mold, especially playing pg. I have no problem if he's shooting like he did at the end of last year, but when he struggles to shoot and continues to dominate the ball, it's a problem. That's partially why I like Nolen so much more than Devoe. If Devoe struggles shooting, he really hurts us (especially at pg). He'll continue to dribble/shoot too much, and he's an average to below average defender. Even if Nolen struggles, he won't shoot that much, he'll play great defense, and he'll hustle as much as anyone on the court.

I know you weren't saying he's better than Nolen or anything, but those thoughts just came to mind. Obviously we need him as a backup pg and to play sg. When other teams don't have very tall or athletic sgs or sfs, I'd love to see a lineup of Al, Devoe, Hoff, Trevor, and Sampson/Iverson.

Also Devoe is a scorer but not in the Westbrook mold where he dominates the ball and disrupts offensive flow.

 

[MEK711]

There's no way Devoe won't fit in to what were trying to do. As it stands, this team only has one three point shooter getting consistent minutes in Blake (Hollins looks like a decent 3pt shooter). On top of that, we don't have a single player that can create offense for himself. It's amazing to me that we've managed to play this well and be 5-0 without really any kind of half-court offense. The problem with the starting lineup of Al, Blake, Rodney, Ralph and Trevor is that none of these guys besides Blake are really shooters at all, and none can really get their own shot. Al is an amazing penetrator and has shown improvements in finishing in the lane, but the guy is not a shooter and never will be. Rodney is really nothing close to a shooter right now, and his midrange game is non-existent.

At this point, Devoe fills almost every void this team has and even just average play from him will be a huge boost. Plus he's shown the ability to play the PG position. I really like the possibility of having Devoe, Hollins, Blake, Ralph, and Trevor on the floor at the same time. Three guards that can all hit the three and space the floor for our dominant big men inside. Sounds really nice to me.