Calling Selection Sunday

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bga1

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SS- Are we in regardless of what we do? Can we drop our last game and the first game of the BTT and survive? Would a 1-8 road record sully our high RPI?
 

(1) I'd say no, but I'd put it at about 95% yes. I'm leaving a 5% opening in the event there are a flood of upsets (and I mean a flood) in the conference tournaments. Put that in combination with a 5-11 finish (after 3-0 B1G start) and I wouldn't completely rule it out. That said, just too many bad things have to happen for the Gophers not to make it. I'd guess losing to Purdue and then in the first game at the BTT means a "play-in" game in Dayton is in play for the Gophers.

(2) Yes.

(3) The road record would be 3-8, not 1-8. The games vs. Florida State and USC count. Though both are having so-so seasons, they're both in the RPI top 100. But I get your point, 1-8 would be an embarrassing conference road record for this experienced team. 2-7 (if we win) nothing to brag about, either.

What I'm most worried about is the fact the Gophers potentially are playing themselves into the absolute worst scenario for the Big Ten Tournament. ... the 8-9 game VS. ILLINOIS IN CHICAGO. Beat Purdue and I'm pretty certain the worst seed we get is #7 (assuming Illinois loses @ OSU). Lose to Purdue and the most likely scenario is the #9 seed playing Illinois.

It's simple. Beat Purdue and we get friggin' Northwestern or Nebraska in Chicago, who both suck and have nowhere near the talent the Gophers have. Losing to either of those teams twice would be a strong indictment of the coaching staff and team. Once is bad enough.
 

SelectionSunday said:
(1) I'd say no, but I'd put it at about 95% yes. I'm leaving a 5% opening in the event there are a flood of upsets (and I mean a flood) in the conference tournaments. Put that in combination with a 5-11 finish (after 3-0 B1G start) and I wouldn't completely rule it out. That said, just too many bad things have to happen for the Gophers not to make it. I'd guess losing to Purdue and then in the first game at the BTT means a "play-in" game in Dayton is in play for the Gophers.

(2) Yes.

(3) The road record would be 3-8, not 1-8. The games vs. Florida State and USC count. Though both are having so-so seasons, they're both in the RPI top 100. But I get your point, 1-8 would be an embarrassing conference road record for this experienced team. 2-7 (if we win) nothing to brag about, either.

What I'm most worried about is the fact the Gophers potentially are playing themselves into the absolute worst scenario for the Big Ten Tournament. ... the 8-9 game VS. ILLINOIS IN CHICAGO. Beat Purdue and I'm pretty certain the worst seed we get is #7 (assuming Illinois loses @ OSU). Lose to Purdue and the most likely scenario is the #9 seed playing Illinois.

It's simple. Beat Purdue and we get friggin' Northwestern or Nebraska in Chicago, who both suck and have nowhere near the talent the Gophers have. Losing to either of those teams twice would be a strong indictment of the coaching staff and team. Once is bad enough.
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Thanks SS. Right now as a die hard Gopher fan- I want us to make it by hook or crook. But we look like the 9th best team in the Big Ten as of right now.
 

Gophers will be dogs in their next two games.

If we lose both, it would mean we have lost 11 of last 16 games. That ain't pretty.
 

bga1 said:
Thanks SS. Right now as a die hard Gopher fan- I want us to make it by hook or crook. But we look like the 9th best team in the Big Ten as of right now.
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I here ya', BGA. Seemingly the Gophers' preferred MO is to make things as difficult as possible heading to the conference tournament.
 


SelectionSunday said:
I here ya', BGA. Seemingly the Gophers' preferred MO is to make things as difficult as possible heading to the conference tournament.
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Wel, I guess we are going to find out Saturday whether this group just wants to lay down and die or if they want to go somewhere.
 

bga1 said:
Wel, I guess we are going to find out Saturday whether this group just wants to lay down and die or if they want to go somewhere.
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Trying to stay positive, but I expect to see the the Gophers playing Illinois in the opening game (8 vs. 9) of the Big Ten tourney. The good news is if we lose to Illinois, at least it will not be a bad loss (yippee!!), unlike if we lost to Nebraska or Northwestern (again).
 

Maybe Tubby will start Ellenson and Shell against Purdue just to make us all miserable and make SS have to recalculate everything once again. :)
 

jamiche said:
Maybe Tubby will start Ellenson and Shell against Purdue just to make us all miserable and make SS have to recalculate everything once again. :)
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That was definitely a head-scratcher. Can't fathom not starting Andre Hollins under any scenario (other than injury or suspension), especially a road game where maybe a good start allows the Gophers to put Nebraska on their heels right away. No, let's just bring our best shooter (and most dangerous scorer) off the bench because a couple other guys played well in their previous game, and while we're at it let's invite the opponent to get off to a better start. Shrewd move.

Still very confident the Gophers will be in the tournament, but I'm not going to gripe for one second if they get left out. Certainly if the Gophers lose to Purdue they've left that door wide open for the Selection Committee.

Somewhere Norwood Teague is squirming.
 



All I know is this. Statistically - in how it affects the RPI and other indexes - the Gophers did themselves as much harm last night as they did themselves good by beating Indiana. So thanks to last night, the only thing the Gophers have in their favor since the Iowa and Ohio State debacles is the win against Penn State, who are so weak themselves that it amounts to only a blip in our favor.

SS is right - if we're going to lose out, we might as well lose to Illinois in the BTT. That will be least damaging.
 


Bad Gopher said:
All I know is this. Statistically - in how it affects the RPI and other indexes - the Gophers did themselves as much harm last night as they did themselves good by beating Indiana. So thanks to last night, the only thing the Gophers have in their favor since the Iowa and Ohio State debacles is the win against Penn State, who are so weak themselves that it amounts to only a blip in our favor.

SS is right - if we're going to lose out, we might as well lose to Illinois in the BTT. That will be least damaging.
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I think it actually helped them to some extent in the snap shot version.

I think it was FTB that tweeted by beating MN Nebraska could now have a top 100 RPI. Meaning our win against them was a top 100 win and our loss against them wasn't "bad"

A flaw in the RPI system if you will.
 

scher215 said:
I think it actually helped them to some extent in the snap shot version.

I think it was FTB that tweeted by beating MN Nebraska could now have a top 100 RPI. Meaning our win against them was a top 100 win and our loss against them wasn't "bad"

A flaw in the RPI system if you will.
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After last night's win Huskers just outside of the RPI top 100 (#102). ... not sure about KenPom. If they win at Iowa I'd imagaine Huskers will move into the top 100.

Pretty said that we've resorted to begging for top-100 wins after a 15-1 start!!!
 



scher215 said:
I think it actually helped them to some extent in the snap shot version.

I think it was FTB that tweeted by beating MN Nebraska could now have a top 100 RPI. Meaning our win against them was a top 100 win and our loss against them wasn't "bad"

A flaw in the RPI system if you will.
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I think there are better indexes than the RPI. The way I compute it - according to Sagarin, the Hoosiers should have been 6 points better than Minnesota at Williams Arena, so we outdid ourselves by 9 points. Last night we should have been 7 points better than Nebraska, so we shorted ourselves by 9 points. It's a wash.
 

SelectionSunday said:
After last night's win Huskers just outside of the RPI top 100 (#102). ... not sure about KenPom. If they win at Iowa I'd imagaine Huskers will move into the top 100.

Pretty said that we've resorted to begging for top-100 wins after a 15-1 start!!!
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Not saying it's okay, we should have stomped Nebraska.

Mostly pointing out that RPI can't always be the end of all discussions.
 

SelectionSunday said:
That was definitely a head-scratcher. Can't fathom not starting Andre Hollins under any scenario (other than injury or suspension), especially a road game where maybe a good start allows the Gophers to put Nebraska on their heels right away. No, let's just bring our best shooter (and most dangerous scorer) off the bench because a couple other guys played well in their previous game, and while we're at it let's invite the opponent to get off to a better start. Shrewd move.

Still very confident the Gophers will be in the tournament, but I'm not going to gripe for one second if they get left out. Certainly if the Gophers lose to Purdue they've left that door wide open for the Selection Committee.

Somewhere Norwood Teague is squirming.
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I can't remember Andre ever starting strong other than Memphis this year, tough to experiment this late in the year but I can't blame Tubby on that one, having him come in late against Penn State worked.

With Austin Hollins, Coleman, and Williams DOA on offense I can't understand why Ellenson isn't seeing any playing time, is his defense that bad, even if his shot selection is questionable it sure wouldn't hurt the offense, not sure it could get any worse than it has been.

Can't believe this team will get in if they lose to Purdue and the first round of the B1G tournament.
 

scher215 said:
Not saying it's okay, we should have stomped Nebraska.

Mostly pointing out that RPI can't always be the end of all discussions.
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Yep, the RPI is just a part of the equation. The "begging" thing I was referring more to myself!
 

jovs said:
I can't remember Andre ever starting strong other than Memphis this year, tough to experiment this late in the year but I can't blame Tubby on that one, having him come in late against Penn State worked.

With Austin Hollins, Coleman, and Williams DOA on offense I can't understand why Ellenson isn't seeing any playing time, is his defense that bad, even if his shot selection is questionable it sure wouldn't hurt the offense, not sure it could get any worse than it has been.

Can't believe this team will get in if they lose to Purdue and the first round of the B1G tournament.
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I don't think when Andre scored is why you start him. He needs to find a rhythm. Get a feel for the game and how it is going to be officiated, played, how Nebraska is playing, etc.

You can't sit your leading scorer and PG, you just can't do it.
 

MN is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens vs. Purdue and the 8/9 game of the B1G Tournament.

If you compare the Gopher's resume to other bubble teams it's not even close.
 

jovs said:
I can't remember Andre ever starting strong other than Memphis this year, tough to experiment this late in the year but I can't blame Tubby on that one, having him come in late against Penn State worked.

With Austin Hollins, Coleman, and Williams DOA on offense I can't understand why Ellenson isn't seeing any playing time, is his defense that bad, even if his shot selection is questionable it sure wouldn't hurt the offense, not sure it could get any worse than it has been.

Can't believe this team will get in if they lose to Purdue and the first round of the B1G tournament.
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Ellenson is not good defensively right now and Tubby is almost completely focused on defense. I'm sure that's why it took Dre so long last year to get much PT (I don't buy the 6 week tweeked ankle excuse Tubby puts out there). Tubby favored Mav for the defense. Finally Dre started lighting it up enough and Tubby got desperate enough where he had to go with it. Tubby just doesn't take a balanced approach to the game - the whole focus is on the DON'Ts:

DON'T turn it over
DON'T be out of position in the ball line defense
and so on

Offensive players simply don't thrive long term under these conditions and there are a long line of victims.

And his teams play like teams that are afraid of making errors (which makes you make errors) and they play not to lose. They are much more impressive and agressive in games that are not supposed to win than in games that they should win.
 


SelectionSunday said:
That was definitely a head-scratcher. Can't fathom not starting Andre Hollins under any scenario (other than injury or suspension), especially a road game where maybe a good start allows the Gophers to put Nebraska on their heels right away. No, let's just bring our best shooter (and most dangerous scorer) off the bench because a couple other guys played well in their previous game, and while we're at it let's invite the opponent to get off to a better start. Shrewd move.

Still very confident the Gophers will be in the tournament, but I'm not going to gripe for one second if they get left out. Certainly if the Gophers lose to Purdue they've left that door wide open for the Selection Committee.

Somewhere Norwood Teague is squirming.
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Did anyone hear a reason for NOT starting Dre? Is Tubby losing his mind?

I do not get it.
 


From the Barn said:
Losing? More like lost.
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The Gophers will set the record for highest RPI to NOT make the tourney. And with a 5-11 record over their last 16 nobody should complain on Selection Sunday when it happens.
 

Moses87 said:
The Gophers will set the record for highest RPI to NOT make the tourney. And with a 5-11 record over their last 16 nobody should complain on Selection Sunday when it happens.
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Lets make a deal if they don't make the tournament I will stop posting and if they do make it you will stop posting deal?
 


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