Bubblicious Weekend: Gophs can simplify things by winning in Ann Arbor

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SelectionSunday

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Wouldn't it be nice to win a road game vs. a quality conference opponent? It can & does happen, Gophers (witness Arkansas last night), surprise me and "clutch up" in a difficult environment. Win Saturday and -- barring an Illinois-like performance vs. Penn State on Senior Night -- you're "in".

Note: In the weekend games listed below, "win and in" means I think that team becomes a virtual lock and will be removed from future Bubblicious reports.

Thursday Results
#32 Oregon 87, UCLA 83 (Ducks accept their gift from the law firm of Anderson & Adams)
#35 Southern Miss 78, FIU 66 (Rakeem Buckles, 7 points & 1 rebound, disappears)
#57 Saint Mary's 70, Portland 61 (Gaels now face must-win vs. Gonzaga)
#59 Arkansas 71, Kentucky 67 (provided there's no meltdown, now it'll be difficult to keep Hogs out of the tourney)
Marquette 75, #65 Georgetown 73 (Hoyas face uphill battle with Creighton & 'Nova on the horizon)

Friday Bubblers
#60 Providence @ Seton Hall, 6 p.m. (CBSSN)

Saturday Bubblers
UMass @ #56 Dayton, 10 a.m. (ESPNU)
Vanderbilt @ #52 Tennessee, 11 a.m. (ESPN2)
Miami-Florida @ #64 NC State, 11 a.m.
Texas Tech @ #45 Baylor, 12:30 p.m.
Mississippi State @ #48 Missouri, 12:30 p.m.
#46 Pitt @ Notre Dame, 1 p.m. (ESPN2)
#54 Richmond @ Rhode Island, 1 p.m.
#33 Saint Joseph's @ Saint Bonaventure, 2 p.m. (NBCSN)
#32 Oregon @ USC, 3 p.m. (Pac 12 Network)
#34 BYU @ San Diego, 3 p.m.
Georgia @ #59 Arkansas, 3 p.m.
#68 LSU @ Florida, 3 p.m. (CBS)
Creighton @ #41 Xavier, 4 p.m. (FS1)
Northwestern @ #51 Nebraska, 4 p.m. (ESPNU)
#47 Cal @ #30 Arizona State, 5 p.m. (Pac 12 Network) -- ''win and in" for ASU
#44 GOPHERS @ Michigan, 5 p.m. (BTN) --
#63 Boise State @ Wyoming, 5:05 p.m. (CBSSN)
Iowa State @ #38 Kansas State, 6 p.m. (ESPNU) -- "win and in" for K-State
Kansas @ #49 Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Gonzaga @ #57 Saint Mary's, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

Sunday Bubblers
DePaul @ #62 Saint John's, 11 a.m. (CBSSN)
George Mason @ #31 George Washington, noon (NBCSN)
Maryland @ #72 Clemson, noon
Georgia Tech @ #55 Florida State, 5 p.m. (ESPNU)
#42 Stanford @ Arizona, 7 p.m. (ESPNU) -- "win and in" for Stanford
 

Yes.
Winning their last two would be a nice simply way to get there.
9-9 B1G record. BTT wouldn't even matter at that point.
 

Face The Facts said:
Yes.
Winning their last two would be a nice simply way to get there.
9-9 B1G record. BTT wouldn't even matter at that point.
Click to expand...

So you no longer think they're a lock at 8-10? You've been consistent in that message, now hedging a little bit?

9-9 has been my "lock" number (no matter what happens in Indy), sticking with that, but hedging a smidge by saying 8-10 should be enough if we beat Michigan. Couldn't envision the Gophers getting left out with splits vs. Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, + a OT loss in East Lansing (without a return game at Williams Arena) to the most talented team in the conference.
 

"That was way easier than putting. I should just try to get it in in one shot every time" -Happy Gilmore

Let's get it done. We should have had them last time, and now we have an almost full season of learning Pitino's system under our belts.
 

Face The Facts said:
Yes.
Winning their last two would be a nice simply way to get there.
9-9 B1G record. BTT wouldn't even matter at that point.
Click to expand...

Getting to 9-9 in the B1G would put us in. But IMHO a win against Michigan does not simply put us in. It greatly helps our chances but nothing is guaranteed. If Wichita State does not win there conference tournament....somebody's bubble will pop.
 


>"Wouldn't it be nice to win a road game vs. a quality conference opponent? It can & does happen, Gophers (witness Arkansas last night)"

Yeah, but let's face it, the two quality opponents we have left (@Michigan, and then if we win first BTT game we likely play MSU) aren't simply quality opponents, they may be two of the best 5 or so teams in the country at the time we play them. Michigan's numbers are skewed by some early losses when they were still adjusting to McGary's injury, and MSU is likely to be at full strength for the first time basically all year.

Realistically, our tourney berth is going to come down to beating Penn State at home (as it should) and beating somebody like Purdue or Illinois in the first round BTT game (will be a battle), and then lobbying to make sure everybody knows we lost 2-3 games because of Hollins' injury and had the 4th or 5th best SOS.
 

I really like our chances tomorrow. I think we match up with them really well and I think its going to be a close game. Gophers just have to make sure Michigan's shooters don't get any clean looks
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
I really like our chances tomorrow. I think we match up with them really well and I think its going to be a close game. Gophers just have to make sure Michigan's shooters don't get any clean looks
Click to expand...

Me too. Timing is perfect with a few of our guys having gotten the monkey off their back and a few more due to break the ice. Michigan has been just getting by and might be a little thinking beyond the moment and about not blowing a potential BT championship. Andre looked better last game and Austin was great. Now if we can get Smith going and a little something out of EE and Mo- I think we can win this game. It's sort of a positive vibe type of game in that you aren't dead if you lose, but you can real lock it in if you win.
 

Gophers need to play with urgency, but with confidence, like Arkansas did last night in Lexington. When things get difficult and they hit a rough stretch, don't settle for a 2nd-half a*s whooping like they did @ Iowa & Ohio State. Buck up & punch back.
 



Seriously not trying to ask this to sound like a negative nelly or anything, but when is the last time we've beaten a ranked opponent on the road? 3-4 years ago? Do we have a chance of giving Michigan a run for their money? Sure! But Recent history shows that we still face incredibly long odds of winning.
 

If the team loses on Saturday,

ASU beating Cal, Kansas beating Okie State, and Creighton beating Xavier all need to happen for this weekend to not be a disaster.

Tennessee, Baylor, Missouri, Pitt, Nebraska and Arkansas losing would help too but these losses look less likely.

Everyone else is either clearly above or clearly below the Gophers irregardless of what happens.
 

Arkansas

As long as they don't implode, I really like Arkansas' chances after last night. The wins at the top of their resume are pretty solid:

Kentucky twice
Gophers
SMU
LSU and Clemson solid wins, too.

Good mix of quality nonconference & conference wins (3 apiece).

3 very winnable games (Georigia, Ole Miss, @ Alabama) to end the season gets them to 11-7 in the SEC, and clearly establishes Hogs as a 3rd tourney-worthy team from the SEC.
 

SelectionSunday said:
As long as they don't implode, I really like Arkansas' chances after last night. The wins at the top of their resume are pretty solid:

Kentucky twice
Gophers
SMU
LSU and Clemson solid wins, too.

Good mix of quality nonconference & conference wins (3 apiece).

3 very winnable games (Georigia, Ole Miss, @ Alabama) to end the season gets them to 11-7 in the SEC, and clearly establishes Hogs as a 3rd tourney-worthy team from he SEC.
Click to expand...

Around where would their RPI be if they win those games? If Arkansas is going to get in, hopefully they help our SOS as much as possible.
 



GameDay said:
Seriously not trying to ask this to sound like a negative nelly or anything, but when is the last time we've beaten a ranked opponent on the road? 3-4 years ago? Do we have a chance of giving Michigan a run for their money? Sure! But Recent history shows that we still face incredibly long odds of winning.
Click to expand...


last year
 

What I don't understand is why Palm (and Lunardi and others) has *six* teams ahead of us in bracket priority who are lower than us in RPI. We and Mizzou are Palm's very last 2 teams in as of right now. That is a bad spot to be on conf tourney weekend.

Yet Cal, Providence, Baylor, Pitt, Okie State, and Arkansas are all currently in the bracket and placed above us. Providence and AR, in particular are about FIFTEEN SPOTS below us in RPI but Palm put them ahead of us.
 

As much as I would love to see the Gophers win at Michigan I just don't see it happening. More likely is they beat Penn St and then win their first round Big ten game.
 

After last night I'd have Arkansas ahead of the Gophers, but I certainly wouldn't have Providence ahead of the Gophers. Not sure why Lunardi and Palm are so infatuated with Pitt, either. Gophers have more top-50 wins, more top-100 wins, and a better overall & nonconference SOS than Pitt.

It's probably the Gophers' road/neutral record (3-8) that is holding them back the most. They have a chance to do something about that tomorrow and then again in Indy. Other than the Richmond game, the Gophers are "home-court heroes". That's not a complimentary term when heard in reference to a bubble team. ... it means you suck away from home. That said, I'd rather be a home-court hero than not one at all, for example Pitt, which lost to Duke, Virginia, and Syracuse at home. At least the Gophers have some top-quality wins at home.
 

GameDay said:
Seriously not trying to ask this to sound like a negative nelly or anything, but when is the last time we've beaten a ranked opponent on the road? 3-4 years ago? Do we have a chance of giving Michigan a run for their money? Sure! But Recent history shows that we still face incredibly long odds of winning.
Click to expand...

two years ago at Indiana and last year at Illinois
 

SelectionSunday said:
It's probably the Gophers' road/neutral record (3-8) that is holding them back the most.
Click to expand...

You're probably right, but that's why I hope the committee actually pays attention to the games themselves rather than just looking at resumes/stats.

As we all know, of the 8 road/neutral losses, 2 of them were in OT. 5 were to teams ranked in the top 20 at the time, and 2 more were to teams right around the top 50 RPI. The only real "bad" road/neutral loss was in OT to Purdue without Andre Hollins. And of course we're getting shafted out of a "good road win" by Richmond now tanking well after the fact without its best player...not relevant at all to when we beat them.

We all said, though, at the time of the Hawaii tourney we really needed to come out of it with one D1 "neutral court" win, and we didn't get it. Could come back to haunt us, unfortunately.
 

The only real "bad" road/neutral loss was in OT to Purdue without Andre Hollins.



Actually, Andre Hollins did play 36 minutes that game and went 3-14. Albeit his first game back and not at 100%.
 

From the look of the bubble schedule for this weekend, their is certainly the potential for a lot of bad results for the Gophers this weekend. While the Gophers play Michigan, a lot of the other "bubblers" have easy games. Of course the flip side to that is that only LSU (and maybe Oklahoma State) have a chance at a more impressive resume win than the Gophers do.

Side note, but I hope most fans don't consider the Penn State game a layup regardless of the outcome in Ann Arbor today. The Gophers should win that game, but they will likely be feeling a lot of pressure and have already dropped two "easy" ones at home.
 

Bad bubble day for the Gophers. But there's about 10 more left, so let's not panic.
 

Touche. Not a good one at all. Even so, at least now the Gophers' job is laid out in front of them. It's not much of a secret. Win 2 straight and the Gophers have a puncher's chance to make the tournament. Win 3 straight and you're in.

Anything less than that and it's the NIT, barring a Championship Week pretty much completely devoid of bid-stealers.

RPI now at #47 on warrennolan.com, updated every 5 minutes.
 

Sayanora Richmond, NC State, and Saint Mary's

Good news is we cleared some teams completely off the bubble this week.

Richmond made a valiant effort to stay in the mix without its best player, but the Spiders are now toast after back to back blowout losses to A-10 non-contenders. Also say good bye to NC State, and Saint Mary's.
 


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