Bubblicious Wednesday: Bubble games don't get any bigger than Illinois-Iowa

[SelectionSunday]

Tuesday Review
#31 Texas A&M loses @ Arkansas -- Aggies now 0-6 vs. RPI top 50.

#36 Pitt beats Boston College -- Still not impressed.

#37 NC State wins @ North Carolina -- Quite frankly, Wolfpack probably no longer a bubbler but will keep 'em there a little longer because of 11 losses.

#42 Boise State beats New Mexico -- Rubber hits the road for Broncos on Saturday with game @ San Diego State.

#44 Texas loses @ West Virginia -- Reeling Longhorns go to Lawrence next.

#52 LSU wins @ Auburn -- Big one Saturday in Baton Rouge vs. red-hot Ole Miss.

Wednesday on the Bubble
George Mason @ #35 Dayton, 6 -- With only 2 top-50 wins, Flyers can't slip here.

Saint Joseph's @ #43 Massachusetts, 6 -- Unimpressed with Minutemen's resume but will let 'em hang around.

#57 Davidson @ #66 Rhode Island, 6 -- Loser's at-large chances likely toast.

UCF @ #50 Cincinnati, 6:30 (CBSSN) -- Bearcats better than RPI suggests, 5 top-50 wins includes sweep of SMU.

Tulane @ #41 Tulsa, 7 (ESPNNews) -- Conversely, Hurricane not as good as their RPI suggests.

#38 Georgia @ #34 Ole Miss, 8 (SECN) -- I like Rebels' resume (wins @ Oregon, neutral court vs. Cincinnati), Bulldogs' not so much.

#59 Illinois @ #55 Iowa, 8 (BTN) -- Huge ramifications for both. Loser basically assures itself it will HAVE TO do work in Chicago.

Florida State @ #69 Miami-Florida, 8 -- Lose here and the Hurricanes are about finished.

Fresno State @ #77 Wyoming, 8:35 (CBSSN) -- For some reason am stubbornly keeping Cowboys on the radar despite awful (#321) non-conference SOS ranking.

#48 Oregon @ Cal, 10 (ESPNU) -- Ducks need to follow up their huge win over Utah.

Washington @ #49 UCLA, 10 (ESPN2) -- Bruins still solidly in the mix despite 16-12 record.

Gophers RPI Update
Tuesday: 97
Today: 97 (1-6 vs. RPI top 50; 4-9 vs. RPI top 100; #68 overall SOS; #214 non-conference SOS)

 

[tjgopher]

#59 Illinois @ #55 Iowa, 8 (BTN) -- Huge ramifications for both. Loser basically assures itself it will HAVE TO do work in Chicago.

Not sure I'd say loser assures itself of having to do work in Chicago.

Say, for example, Iowa loses tonight and wins the final three games of the regular season. They'd be 20-11 overall, 11-7 in the Big Ten with a home win over RPI #9 Maryland, road wins AT RPI #17 UNC, AT RPI #32 Indiana, plus road/home wins over RPI #45 Ohio State. Only one bad loss, plus some really "good" losses (twice to #6 Wis, #10 Iowa State, #19 UNI, #27 MSU, #44 Texas). I think they'd be a lock at 11-7 in the Big Ten and need to do nothing in Chicago. I think Iowa has a stronger resume than their RPI #55 ranking indicates. Ken Pom has the Hawkeyes at #27, Sagarin has them at #28, BPI at #43.

As for Illinois, they could lose tonight and win out and be 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the Big Ten. They'd have wins at home over RPI #9 Maryland, a neutral win over #13 Baylor, and a road win over RPI #27 Michigan State. They have one bad loss, and some really "good" losses (#4 Villanova, #6 Wis, #32 Indiana, #48 Oregon). They'd have a tougher case than Iowa, in my opinion, and might have work to do in Chicago. Ken Pom has Illinois at #63, Sagarin has them at #46, BPI at #55 (behind Minnesota's #50).

I've said it from the start, but I think 7 Big Ten teams get in, with a pretty good shot now at 8.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I've said it from the start, but I think 7 Big Ten teams get in, with a pretty good shot now at 8.

I see your point. Using the word "likely" before "have to" would have been more accurate on my part.

Agree that 7 is looking really good and 8 isn't that far-fetched. Increases the chances of getting 8 if Illinois wins tonight. Like you said, Illini have a tougher row to hoe down the stretch than Iowa.

 

[Some guy]

SS

Just curious.
Why do you include non-conf SOS on a resume? You always say they judge teams not conferences, so why does not conferenxe SOS matter at all?

 

[SelectionSunday]

SS

Just curious.
Why do you include non-conf SOS on a resume? You always say they judge teams not conferences, so why does non conference SOS matter at all?

The non-conference SOS is a team ranking, has nothing to do with your conference. All non-conference schedules aren't created equally, obviously. Pretty comfortable saying non-conference schedule rank is an important one to the committee, especially when they get down to those last few teams that look so similar.

That's why I'd say it's especially important for Purdue to distance itself from the bubble. The Boilers are going to have enough quality wins at the end of the season, but if they're in a dogfight for one of the last couple bids their non-conference SOS (currently #225) could be their death knell. The committee over the years has a track record of excluding teams with non-conference schedules in the 200s or higher, for example SMU (#295) last season. And what hurts Purdue is they not only played a soft NC slate, they lost a couple of those. 200s is dangerous territory.

 

[howeda7]

If Texas plays its way out again, does Rick Barnes' seat finally burst into flames?

 

[SelectionSunday]

If Texas plays its way out again, does Rick Barnes' seat finally burst into flames?

Would have to think so. Made a nice bounce-back last season, started well this season, now the bottom has fallen out. Longhorns will probably lose @ Kansas, but if they beat Baylor & K-State in their last 2 and then add a top-50 win at the Big XII tourney, they'll probably make it. Wouldn't bet on that right now, though.

 

[Some guy]

The non-conference SOS is a team ranking, has nothing to do with your conference. All non-conference schedules aren't created equally, obviously. Pretty comfortable saying non-conference schedule rank is an important one to the committee, especially when they get down to those last few teams that look so similar.

That's why I'd say it's especially important for Purdue to distance itself from the bubble. The Boilers are going to have enough quality wins at the end of the season, but if they're in a dogfight for one of the last couple bids their non-conference SOS (currently #225) could be their death knell. The committee over the years has a track record of excluding teams with non-conference schedules in the 200s or higher, for example SMU (#295) last season. And what hurts Purdue is they not only played a soft NC slate, they lost a couple of those. 200s is dangerous territory.

On the contrary. Conference affiliation has EVERYTHING to do with non conference SOS.

Compare gonzaga to Wisconsin.
15 of wisconsins toughest 25 games are excluded from non-conference SOS
15 of Gonzaga's easiest 25 games are excluded from non-conference SOS

It is a stat skewed against teams with a stronger conference because using it without also using conference RPI means they value non-conference games more than conference games.
Why should they included non-conference SOS as a measurement but not conference SOS?
They don't differentiate between non conference and conference wins, so why do they discriminate between non-conference and conference games?

 

[Holy Man]

On the contrary. Conference affiliation has EVERYTHING to do with non conference SOS.

Compare gonzaga to Wisconsin.
15 of wisconsins toughest 25 games are excluded from non-conference SOS
15 of Gonzaga's easiest 25 games are excluded from non-conference SOS

It is a stat skewed against teams with a stronger conference because using it without also using conference RPI means they value non-conference games more than conference games.
Why should they included non-conference SOS as a measurement but not conference SOS?
They don't differentiate between non conference and conference wins, so why do they discriminate between non-conference and conference games?

I am no SS, but I believe they Do include conference SOS by having an "overall" SOS. The overall SOS does include conference games, and therefore is included in SOS.

 

[SelectionSunday]

. ... I believe they Do include conference SOS by having an "overall" SOS. The overall SOS does include conference games, and therefore is included in SOS.

Yep. That's why I pay attention to both (overall SOS & non-conference SOS), but separate the two. With regards to the final 2-3 at-large spots, not always but almost always, I'm more likely to exclude teams with horrific non-conference SOS rankings (see SMU last season).