Bubblicious Thursday: Resilient Colorado. ... you've earned your bid

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SelectionSunday

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After Sunday's games, we'll put all the bubblers in one, big happy pile, but until then we'll keep the three-tiered hierarchy.

Key developments?

(1) Colorado locks up a bid with a win @ Stanford. Tad Boyle has done an outstanding job keeping the Buffs relevant since losing stud Spencer Dinwiddie to a season-ending injury.

(2) Dayton logs the night's biggest bubble win @ Saint Louis. Flyers getting real close, but remain a true bubbler.

(3) George Washington gets an important home win over Saint Joseph's. I'll lock up GW if it simply avoids a bad loss @ Fordham in its regular-season finale. Saint Joe's moves down a level but is still very much in the hunt.

(4) Welcome Louisiana Tech and Utah, now on our radar.

(5) I'll lock in Iowa and/or Xavier if either wins tonight. Both play high-level opponents (see below).

Auto Bids/Placeholders (32)
Vermont (America East), Louisville (American), Virginia (ACC), Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), Saint Louis (Atlantic 10), Villanova (Big East), Weber State (Big Sky), High Point (Big South), Michigan (Big Ten), Kansas (Big XII), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Southern Miss (Conference USA), Green Bay (Horizon), Harvard (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Toledo (MAAC), North Carolina Central (MEAC), Wichita State (Missouri Valley), San Diego State (Mountain West), Robert Morris (NEC), Belmont (OVC), Arizona (Pac 12), Boston U (Patriot), Florida (SEC), Davidson (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Alabama State (SWAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC), Utah Valley (WAC).

Locks (22)
Wisconsin (5), Creighton (7), Duke (8), Syracuse (11), Iowa State (12), UMass (13), VCU (14), Cincinnati (15), New Mexico (17), North Carolina (18), Kentucky (19), Oklahoma (20), UCLA (21), Michigan State (23), Texas (26), Ohio State (27), Colorado (28), UConn (29), Memphis (32), Arizona State (33), Kansas State (37), Baylor (40)

AVAILABLE BIDS: 14 (6 if we concede bids to thresholders)

On the Threshold/Win Your Next Game and You're In (8)
George Washington (30) -- beat Saint Joseph's 76-71
Oregon (31)
BYU (34)
Iowa (38) -- @ Michigan State, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Oklahoma State (42)
Xavier (44) -- Villanova, 6 p.m. (FS1)
SMU (45) -- lost to Louisville 71-84
Arkansas (55) -- beat Ole Miss 110-80

Truest of the True Bubblers (12)
Saint Joseph's (35) -- lost to George Washington 71-76
Dayton (43) -- beat Saint Louis 72-67
Tennessee (46) -- beat Auburn 82-54
Stanford (47) -- lost to Colorado 56-59
GOPHERS (48)
Missouri (49) -- beat Texas A&M 57-56
Nebraska (50) -- beat Indiana 70-60
Providence (52)
Pitt (54)
Georgetown (56)
Florida State (57)
Cal (59) -- lost to Utah 59-63

On the Radar (5)
Saint John's (62)
Louisiana Tech (65) -- @ Rice, 7 p.m.
Clemson (67)
LSU (69) -- @ Vanderbilt, 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
Utah (75) -- beat Cal 63-59

Conference Tournaments Resuming Tonight
Atlantic Sun semifinals -- 1-bid conference (#1 Florida Gulf Coast highest seed remaining).
OVC quarterfinals -- 1-bid conference (#1 Belmont highest seed remaining).

Conference Tournaments Starting Tonight
MAAC -- 1-bid conference (Iona the #1 seed).
Missouri Valley -- definite bid-stealer if someone other than Wichita State wins the tournament (Shockers the #1 seed).
WCC -- potential bid-stealer if someone other than Gonzaga/BYU wins the tournament (Zags the #1 seed).
 

Gophers are sliding down this week and have a no-win situation where they need to beat Penn St twice in a row just to stay relevant. Winning both will have minimal impact on their RPI and losing would move them directly to the NIT.
The future looks grim for the Gophers at this point. Everybody else is winning this week which is the opposite of what happened last year at this point which is making the bubble stronger than previously anticipated.
 

Face The Facts said:
Gophers are sliding down this week and have a no-win situation where they need to beat Penn St twice in a row just to stay relevant. Winning both will have minimal impact on their RPI and losing would move them directly to the NIT.
The future looks grim for the Gophers at this point. Everybody else is winning this week which is the opposite of what happened last year at this point which is making the bubble stronger than previously anticipated.
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It's why I thought (after their nonconference season) 9-9 was always their number for a safe landing in the NCAA tourney. 8-10 simply leaves too many things up to chance, and that's what we're finding out this week.

Agree with you about Sunday's game. Lose it and the auto bid becomes the Gophers' only path to the 4-letter Madness. It's still in their hands, though. Time to start taking names, and winning ballgames, starting with Penn State.
 


Gophers are definitely on the outside looking in right now but Saturday has MOST of these bubble teams playing again. If a handful of them lose and the Gophers win were right there in the mix with anybody else.

Its all gonna come down to the BTT and who we draw. I hope were the 7 seed and our opponent is Illinois as the 10 seed as there RPI is around 70ish. Would look as a better win compared to Purdue, PSU, and N'Western. Then in the 2nd round game I want Wisconsin. Best RPI in the league and I think we matchup pretty well with them. STILL so much to happen...just need to let things play out. This week has been brutal thus far but nothing is over...MOST these teams still play again....lets just hope they lose now.
 


SelectionSunday said:
It's why I thought (after their nonconference season) 9-9 was always their number for a safe landing in the NCAA tourney. 8-10 simply leaves too many things up to chance, and that's what we're finding out this week.

Agree with you about Sunday's game. Lose it and the auto bid becomes the Gophers' only path to the 4-letter Madness. It's still in their hands, though. Time to start taking names, and winning ballgames, starting with Penn State.
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A bid in the finals wouldn't do it for us? Would 2 wins against PSU followed by a loss to Wisconsin really be better than splitting with Penn State, beating Wisconsin and MSU before losing to Michigan? The difference would be going 2-1 with no good wins vs. going 3-2 with 2 good wins and a bad loss.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
A bid in the finals wouldn't do it for us? Would 2 wins against PSU followed by a loss to Wisconsin really be better than splitting with Penn State, beating Wisconsin and MSU before losing to Michigan? The difference would be going 2-1 with no good wins vs. going 3-2 with 2 good wins and a bad loss.
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Not liking any 7-11 scenario. Sometimes a bubble team's record just gets to the point where it's too little, too late. Would certainly be willing to revisit that if Gophers are still playing on selection day.
 

Nebraska currently has 10 BT wins and the best we can do is 8. Has a Big Ten team ever jumped over another BT team that had 2 more conference wins........for ncaa bid that is.
 

SS: I know a lot of people (myself) included are looking for teams to lose. Although it would be nice for teams to lose we should be looking at teams to win...such as Ohio State. If they beat MSU Sunday that should propell them to top 25 RPI status thus enhancing our resume would it not? Same goes for Florida State if they somehow get back into the top 50 RPI???

Looking at our resume it still needs work...but IMHO its not worse then teams like Stanford or Cal who are already in the field.
 



OSU and FSU

JReck33 said:
SS: I know a lot of people (myself) included are looking for teams to lose. Although it would be nice for teams to lose we should be looking at teams to win...such as Ohio State. If they beat MSU Sunday that should propell them to top 25 RPI status thus enhancing our resume would it not? Same goes for Florida State if they somehow get back into the top 50 RPI???

Looking at our resume it still needs work...but IMHO its not worse then teams like Stanford or Cal who are already in the field.
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Reck, agree with everything you've said in your previous posts. It's been a bad week so far for the Gophers, yes, but they're still right there. That's the bottom line. They have as good a chance to be selected as any of the teams I have 'em grouped with. They likely won't have to be selected ahead of all those teams, just some of 'em. I think some of us (myself included) are forgetting that.

Ohio State getting into and and staying in the RPI top 25 would help the Gophers. I don't track it, but I believe RPI top-25 wins is one of the things the committee looks at.

Same for FSU getting into the RPI top 50. Even though the Seminoles are directly competing with us & it would greatly enhance their resume, the single-most result I want to occur this weekend (other than a Gopher win over Penn State) is for FSU to beat Syracuse. If not into the top 50, it would get the Seminoles close to it heading into the ACC Tournament where they could enhance it some more. The Gopher resume could really, really use another top-50 win. I think it's one (maybe 2) light of those right now.
 

station19 said:
Nebraska currently has 10 BT wins and the best we can do is 8. Has a Big Ten team ever jumped over another BT team that had 2 more conference wins........for ncaa bid that is.
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Not sure about 2 wins. But last year we jumped Iowa and they had 1 more conference win then we did. My guess would be yes its happened but I dont have any proof.
 

JReck33 said:
Not sure about 2 wins. But last year we jumped Iowa and they had 1 more conference win then we did. My guess would be yes its happened but I dont have any proof.
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I realize what we did last year but I don't think that has happened very often. I can't believe any team has jumped a two game lead.....maybe SS knows.
 

They are right there. They are really close to a 50-50 right now. But my thought is this Sunday, they won't gain much. A win over Penn State is needed, but it just prevents the resume from getting worse, vs getting better.
They are likely to play Penn State again the next game, and that kind of stinks having to beat a team twice in a row. The teams the Gophers beat like Ohio State and Iowa have dropped some which has hurt.
 



Face The Facts said:
They are right there. They are really close to a 50-50 right now. But my thought is this Sunday, they won't gain much. A win over Penn State is needed, but it just prevents the resume from getting worse, vs getting better.
They are likely to play Penn State again the next game, and that kind of stinks having to beat a team twice in a row. The teams the Gophers beat like Ohio State and Iowa have dropped some which has hurt.
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Assuming we beat PSU...there game tonight against N'Western is pretty important. I think the Gophers want PSU to lose. N'Western owns the tiebreaker over Illinois and I believe in a three way tie with N'Western, Illinois and Purdue....Purdue would be the 11, making Illinois the 10 and N'Western the 9. Illinois has the best RPI of the bottom teams in the 70's I believe so a win there is better then the other bottom teams.

I dont know about you guys but I want Illinois....and not just for the RPI purposes...I just dont like there team and I want a little revenge. So tonight we should be N'Western fans I believe.
 

station19 said:
Nebraska currently has 10 BT wins and the best we can do is 8. Has a Big Ten team ever jumped over another BT team that had 2 more conference wins........for ncaa bid that is.
Click to expand...
Possibly in this case
Gophers had nine games against the top 5 teams while Nebraska had seven
 

JReck33 said:
I dont know about you guys but I want Illinois....and not just for the RPI purposes...I just dont like there team and I want a little revenge. So tonight we should be N'Western fans I believe.
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I want Illinois as well. They will not beat the Gophers a second time, and it'd be a bonus to beat them because they have the best RPI of our potential opponents.
 

If Iowa loses tonight, do they fall to being a true bubbler? Seems absurd since they're still ranked, so I'm guessing a win over Illinois on Sunday is all they need?
 

howeda7 said:
If Iowa loses tonight, do they fall to being a true bubbler? Seems absurd since they're still ranked, so I'm guessing a win over Illinois on Sunday is all they need?
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Iowa's in if they win either one. Don't become a bubbler unless they lose both.
 

station19 said:
I realize what we did last year but I don't think that has happened very often. I can't believe any team has jumped a two game lead.....maybe SS knows.
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Closest thing from memory that I can think of is Indiana in 2005. They had a rough non-conference season, then got it going in Big Ten play. Finished 10-6 in the Big Ten, Minnesota beat them in BTT, and Indiana went to NIT.

Ohio State was 8-8 and would have almost certainly made the NCAA had it not been on probation that year.

So, it still didn't happen, but likely could/would have in 2005.

Otherwise, I can't think of a scenario that that's happened.
 

SS.

was wondering what you make of the Stanford vs Utah matchup. Is the loser out of the tourney?Could stanford still get in with a loss? Is winning that game alone enough for stanford to get in? I'd assume utah has to win and win some more in the Conference tourney. Been following the stanford situation closely and I'm shocked to what has happened to that program. Their attendance are comparable to gopher women games. Makes me wonder why they held on to Dawkins for so long, and I'd be interested to see if a strong incoming recruiting class could save Dawkins job if he missed the tourney again. Honestly, stanford probably has the less to worry about when it comes to maybe losing an incoming class, as I'd assume majority of those kids picked the school and not the coach for going there.
 

Utah/Stanford

GuyFawkes said:
SS.

was wondering what you make of the Stanford vs Utah matchup. Is the loser out of the tourney?Could stanford still get in with a loss? Is winning that game alone enough for stanford to get in? I'd assume utah has to win and win some more in the Conference tourney.
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Utah certainly has no chance for an at-large bid if it loses, extremely doubtful even with a win. I was beyond generous adding the Utes to the radar this morning. Their nonconference schedule ranks #339 (of 349) in the country. But I couldn't ignore the Utes' 4 RPI top-50 wins, with the opportunity for at least 2 or 3 more.

I think Stanford's squarely on the bubble, but that changes if they lose at home to Utah. That would be back-to-back home losses to end the regular season, both against good but not great opponents. That would scream, "Don't select us."

Even with a win, Stanford will have some work to do.
 

Well- winning the next two is a must- that's for sure now. Even then it looks like a 50/50 proposition. Winning three gets them one more top 50 win. It seems like that's the ticket at this point. The NCAA tourney starts NOW for the Gophers.

And that's fine. This is a bonus year for me. If they get in- I'm ecstatic, if not it was a fun first year with the new coach and better days are ahead.
 


bga1 said:
Well- winning the next two is a must- that's for sure now. Even then it looks like a 50/50 proposition. Winning three gets them one more top 50 win. It seems like that's the ticket at this point. The NCAA tourney starts NOW for the Gophers.

And that's fine. This is a bonus year for me. If they get in- I'm ecstatic, if not it was a fun first year with the new coach and better days are ahead.
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Yep, win the next 2 and we'll at least be in the mix. Win 3 and I'll be confident we make it. Unfortunately, I think the team is too inconsistent to win 3 games in a row right now, even though 2 of them will be against bottom teams. Hopefully something clicks during the week off and Dre Hollins gets healthy.
 

Here's who we cheer for according to Palm to help our RPI (and it's an interesting little thing for those of you who haven't found the Palm reader)

New Orleans needs to beat Lamar

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi needs to beat McNeese State

Richmond needs to beat Virginia Commonwealth

Iowa needs to beat Michigan State

Montana needs to beat Sacramento State

Lots left to shake out in the coming 9 days. it's getting dicey!
 

It's not over until I say its over. Was it over when Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
 

I respect Lunardi, his numbers speak for themselves, but there's one thing that needs to mentioned about his game-by-game updates when there are games on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU. It is blatantly obvious that his last 4 byes/last 4 in/first 4 out/next 4 out projections cater to whichever teams are currently airing on the Mother Ship's airwaves, or to a lesser extent any bubble team that is playing that night.

For example, leading up to last night nary a peep from Lunardi about Stanford or Colorado being anywhere near the bubble, but then, presto, Stanford vs. Colorado airs on ESPNU and all of a sudden on one of Lunardi's game-by-game updates both Stanford/Colorado magically appear. LSU plays Vandy tonight on ESPN2. Don't be surprised at all if all of a sudden LSU will be listed as one of Lunardi's "next 4 out", even though we've heard or seen nothing all week from Lunardi about the Tigers. (edit: what a shocker, this morning Lunardi just included LSU in his next 4 out) LSU is nowhere near to being one of the next 4 out, but that won't stop Lunardi.

His game-by-game updates are driven largely by ratings. Don't trust those ones.
 

Twinsfan007 said:
Joe Lunardi must be on something to keep Stanford still clearly in the field. I don't see that much difference from us to them and they have lost 3 straight. http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
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maybe road record? but that's a garbage inflated stat for Stanford if you look at it as 3 of their 7 wins came against Denver (152), USC (170), and Wash St. (209)
 



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