Bubblicious Thursday: Arkansas @ Kentucky the headliner

[SelectionSunday]

Wednesday Results
#30 Arizona State 76, #41 Stanford 64 (lock in Sun Devils if they beat Cal this weekend; Cardinal back to the bubble)
Texas 74, #45 Baylor 69 (Bears still should be OK as long as they win 2 of final 3)
#46 Pitt 66, Boston College 59 (Panthers likely will get in but not impressed with their resume)
Arizona 87, #47 Cal 59 (Golden Bears riding the teeter-totter; big one @ ASU looms)
#51 Tennessee 75, Mississippi State 68 (Vols will take any win they can get)
Illinois 60, #52 Nebraska 49 (no easy task, but if Huskers win out they're gonna' get in)
George Mason 69, #54 Richmond 60 (Spiders still have opportunities with VCU and Dayton ahead)
Fresno State 76, #58 Boise State 56 (Broncos one loss away from exiting the bubble permanently)
North Carolina 85, #64 NC State 84 (Wolfpack have NIT written all over 'em)
#67 LSU 68, Texas A&M 49 (golden opportunity awaits in Gainesville)

Thursday Bubblers
FIU @ #35 Southern Miss, 6 p.m. -- Golden Eagles once again a RPI tiger; why do I keep them on this list?
#70 Arkansas @ Kentucky, 6 p.m. (ESPN) -- Razorbacks become legit at-large threat with win in Lexington
Portland @ #61 Saint Mary's, 8 p.m. -- Pilots can kick Gaels off the bubble for good
#60 Georgetown @ Marquette, 8 p.m. (FS1) -- if Hoyas stay on the bubble, win over Sparty could be the trump card
#43 Oregon @ UCLA, 10 p.m. (ESPN2) -- Ducks really, really need this one

 

[WanderingGopher]

#60 Georgetown @ Marquette, 8 p.m. (FS1) -- if Hoyas stay on the bubble, win over Sparty could be the trump card

I watched that game, and while Georgetown's win might look good on paper it was much less impressive if the committee actually watched and knew what was going on. No Payne or Dawson for MSU, and MSU looked disinterested and treating it like a "rest" game in the middle of the B1G schedule (as you might expect, having to travel to NY to face an unranked team in the middle of the conference schedule when you've been battling injuries).

I just shake my head at some of the other bubble teams we see being mentioned in the same breath as the Gophers (St. John's, Providence, Dayton, etc.). We know the Gophers are flawed, but still...if we don't make the tourney I will be convinced that we're better than multiple teams in it.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I watched that game, and while Georgetown's win might look good on paper it was much less impressive if the committee actually watched and knew what was going on. No Payne or Dawson for MSU, and MSU looked disinterested and treating it like a "rest" game in the middle of the B1G schedule (as you might expect, having to travel to NY to face an unranked team in the middle of the conference schedule when you've been battling injuries).

I just shake my head at some of the other bubble teams we see being mentioned in the same breath as the Gophers (St. John's, Providence, Dayton, etc.). We know the Gophers are flawed, but still...if we don't make the tourney I will be convinced that we're better than multiple teams in it.

Agree. MSU had just completed a two-game stretch where they lost at home to a bitter rival, then followed it up with a gritty road win in Iowa City. Sparty played like they had no interest being in Madison Square Garden. Georgetown, conversely, played like a team that knew they needed a high-quality win for their resume, which they did. But in the end, it goes back to, "You are what your record says you are." ... the Hoyas still gotta' get credit for the win.

Feel your pain with regards to some other bubble resumes compared vs. the Gophers. I'd add Missouri, Oregon, Pitt, and Southern Miss to that mix, all with only 1 RPI top-50 win to their name. Mizzou's basically beaten UCLA and that's it, Oregon's best Pac 12 win is vs. #91 Utah, Pitt hasn't beat any of the ACC's big dogs (Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina), and Southern Miss' best win was @ North Dakota State. Enough said.

 

[tmvander]

When it comes down to he last few selections does the committee dig in a little deeper? What I mean is would they look and see that the Gophers lost in OT on the road vs Michigan St, almost beat Michigan at home, played Syracuse down to the wire on a neutral court, and almost beat Nebraska on the road? They could also see our 2 100+ losses are by a combined 4 points.

Just curious if they look that far into it or just go off the resumes we all see and thats it.

 

[SelectionSunday]

When it comes down to he last few selections does the committee dig in a little deeper? What I mean is would they look and see that the Gophers lost in OT on the road vs Michigan St, almost beat Michigan at home, played Syracuse down to the wire on a neutral court, and almost beat Nebraska on the road? They could also see our 2 100+ losses are by a combined 4 points.

Just curious if they look that far into it or just go off the resumes we all see and thats it.

Am very confident the committee does a lot of digging, especially for the final couple spots. There's always going to be a few selections and/or seeds we can quibble with, but those folks don't take their responsibility lightly. They don't just look at the numbers and say, "Let's call it a day."

 

[howeda7]

Stanford is still sitting pretty with a #9 seed per Lunardi. Why?

 

[SelectionSunday]

Stanford is still sitting pretty with a #9 seed per Lunardi. Why?

Though not a lock yet, numbers are pretty solid.

5-7 vs. top 50, including a win @ UConn, another one @ Cal.

SOS is solid at 37. (played BYU, Pitt, UConn, and Michigan in nonconference)

7-6 in road/neutral games.

A win @ Arizona this weekend should lock 'em in, but absent that beating Colorado and Utah at home should do the trick.

 

[fryguy22]

Agree. MSU had just completed a two-game stretch where they lost at home to a bitter rival, then followed it up with a gritty road win in Iowa City. Sparty played like they had no interest being in Madison Square Garden. Georgetown, conversely, played like a team that knew they needed a high-quality win for their resume, which they did. But in the end, it goes back to, "You are what your record says you are." ... the Hoyas still gotta' get credit for the win.

Feel your pain with regards to some other bubble resumes compared vs. the Gophers. I'd add Missouri, Oregon, Pitt, and Southern Miss to that mix, all with only 1 RPI top-50 win to their name. Mizzou's basically beaten UCLA and that's it, Oregon's best Pac 12 win is vs. #91 Utah, Pitt hasn't beat any of the ACC's big dogs (Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina), and Southern Miss' best win was @ North Dakota State. Enough said.

This is making me feel more confident. I feel like the last few years the committee has rewarded teams that have shown the ability to go out and get good wins. I feel that puts us in a decent spot vs. some of these guys who only have one real "quality" win.

I feel like 2 more wins (total) would have me feeling really good....am I overconfident?

 

[Twinsfan007]

Though not a lock yet, numbers are pretty solid.

5-7 vs. top 50, including a win @ UConn, another one @ Cal.

SOS is solid at 37. (played BYU, Pitt, UConn, and Michigan in nonconference)

7-6 in road/neutral games.

A win @ Arizona this weekend should lock 'em in, but absent that beating Colorado and Utah at home should do the trick.

i thought they played @ASU? most of been thinking the other way around or something.

 

[tmvander]

This is making me feel more confident. I feel like the last few years the committee has rewarded teams that have shown the ability to go out and get good wins. I feel that puts us in a decent spot vs. some of these guys who only have one real "quality" win.

I feel like 2 more wins (total) would have me feeling really good....am I overconfident?

I like our chances if we just beat Penn St and then lose our first round of the BTT so if you are overconfident I'm not sure what I am

 

[SelectionSunday]

This is making me feel more confident. I feel like the last few years the committee has rewarded teams that have shown the ability to go out and get good wins. I feel that puts us in a decent spot vs. some of these guys who only have one real "quality" win.

I feel like 2 more wins (total) would have me feeling really good....am I overconfident?

I'll be completely honest. If the Gophers lose to Michigan, beat Penn State, then win their 1st BTT game, I'll feel pretty good but not entirely comfortable.

Completely comfortable?

That'll come if I'm sitting in my seat in Indy on Saturday the 15th watching the Gophers play someone (Badgers?) in the semifinals.

 

[Dano564]

For years there had been an emphasis on teams playing tougher schedules and valuing the big win.

Last year, Jay Bilas criticized the committee for selecting Middle Tennessee State who was 28-6, but was only 1-4 vs Top 50, and no games played against 51-100.

Kentucky who did not make the tournament was 3-4 vs Top 50, 3-4 vs 51-100, and 21-12 overall.
Not many were surprised that Kentucky didn't make it with their RPI of 57, but MTSU had a 33 RPI and was non-impressive in their schedule with a SOS of 128.

 

[Dano564]

The committee enters team into the tourney by vote.

1st: Get automatic qualifiers in.
2nd: They vote on all the schools that are no brainers. (AP Top 25)

3. Then they look at how many spots are left.
4. Then they enter the next group of schools and vote on them. (Teams outside the AP top 50 but receiving votes who also probably have a top 30 RPI from major conferences.

5. Then they get together the remaining 20-30 teams and start widdling down the list. Throwing out ridiculous teams and voting them off until they get a managable list and vote for those that should be in. By this time, it's Saturday or Sunday and they only have a couple contingencies left which are mainly seeding, unless Penn St or Georgia Tech are playing int he Championship game. At that point they have the bottom couple teams identified who would bump out of the tournament, as well as a swapping of seeds if the favored team wins the Big Ten or ACC Championship that Sunday. (Maybe moving them up a seed.

 

[stocker08]

Arkansas up 20-13 @ Kentucky about 10:00 into the game.

 

[PitinoFan]

What's up with Kentucky? Every year, they have a top 5 team in terms of talent, yet they underperform more often than not.

 

[station19]

The committee enters team into the tourney by vote.

1st: Get automatic qualifiers in.
2nd: They vote on all the schools that are no brainers. (AP Top 25)

3. Then they look at how many spots are left.
4. Then they enter the next group of schools and vote on them. (Teams outside the AP top 50 but receiving votes who also probably have a top 30 RPI from major conferences.

5. Then they get together the remaining 20-30 teams and start widdling down the list. Throwing out ridiculous teams and voting them off until they get a managable list and vote for those that should be in. By this time, it's Saturday or Sunday and they only have a couple contingencies left which are mainly seeding, unless Penn St or Georgia Tech are playing int he Championship game. At that point they have the bottom couple teams identified who would bump out of the tournament, as well as a swapping of seeds if the favored team wins the Big Ten or ACC Championship that Sunday. (Maybe moving them up a seed.

Wouldn't they be the true 'First Four Out'?

 

[Russ Archambault]

What's up with Kentucky? Every year, they have a top 5 team in terms of talent, yet they underperform more often than not.

UK is a revolving door with one and done's, which works just fine if you have Anthony Davis as the centerpiece. He was transcendent at the college level on both ends, especially as a rim protector. MKG was also a stud on defense. I think what you've seen the past 2 years is more representative of what you should expect from them. Talented and inconsistent, but only a contender if they manage to field a top defense, which is easier said than done when you're dealing with a lineup of 5* freshmen.

That Richmond loss to a bad GMU team is a head scratcher. Also an added bummer for us considering they counted as a top 50 win before that loss.

 

[BJN]

Arkansas pulls out a win in OT. That hurts.

 

[GophersInIowa]

The committee enters team into the tourney by vote.

1st: Get automatic qualifiers in.
2nd: They vote on all the schools that are no brainers. (AP Top 25)

3. Then they look at how many spots are left.
4. Then they enter the next group of schools and vote on them. (Teams outside the AP top 50 but receiving votes who also probably have a top 30 RPI from major conferences.

5. Then they get together the remaining 20-30 teams and start widdling down the list. Throwing out ridiculous teams and voting them off until they get a managable list and vote for those that should be in. By this time, it's Saturday or Sunday and they only have a couple contingencies left which are mainly seeding, unless Penn St or Georgia Tech are playing int he Championship game. At that point they have the bottom couple teams identified who would bump out of the tournament, as well as a swapping of seeds if the favored team wins the Big Ten or ACC Championship that Sunday. (Maybe moving them up a seed.

This reminds me of when UNLV was ranked in the top 25 in one of the polls and got left out some years ago (maybe the 90's?). I've got to imagine that is the only time it has happened since the expansion to 64.

 

[Dano564]

Arkansas pulls out a win in OT. That hurts.

Well, it indirectly helps our RPI with them winning however...
but another team in the discussion.

 

[GameDay]

Well, it indirectly helps our RPI with them winning however...
but another team in the discussion.

Them winning is better for us than another bubble team winning since we've played them, but it still hurts us more than it helps.

 

[WanderingGopher]

Oregon up 12 at UCLA at the half. Not good, not good at all.

Edit- UCLA suspended their best two players (Adams and Anderson) for tonight due to a "rules violation." SMH. So Oregon's going to get credit for a "quality road win" that really isn't such a quality road win.

Other than Marquette essentially knocking out Georgetown, not a great night tonight for the Goph's.

 

[howeda7]

Rough bubble night. Oregon got a complete gift. Maybe Boehline will suspend Saustkus and Robinson on Saturday.