Bubblicious Monday: Xavier, Ok State, and Pitt center stage tonight

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SelectionSunday

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This week we'll track bubble teams either (A) on the threshold of locking up a NCAA bid, (B) among the truest of the true bubblers, or (C) on the fringe of legitimate at-large consideration. For example, after Florida State's win over Georgia Tech last night, we've upgraded the Seminoles to one of the truest of the true bubblers.

In a nutshell, currently there are 27 teams competing for 16 available at-large spots. Generally speaking, teams on the threshold need 1 or maybe 2 wins to lock up a bid. Essentially, those teams are likely to make the tournament barring a complete collapse. Starting today I'll update the number of available at-large spots, the 3 lists, and team RPIs. Eventually we'll get rid of the first and third lists and just have one big bubble, but for now there's still some separation among bubble teams.

Championship Week gets underway tonight with the 8-9 (Lafayette @ Loyola-Maryland) 7-10 (Navy @ Colgate) games in the Patriot League. The Patriot is a one-bid league, so we have no potential bid-stealers there.

Spots Available: 16 (5 if we concede bids to thresholders)

On the Threshold (11)
Colorado (30)
George Washington (31)
Saint Joseph's (34)
BYU (35)
Xavier (37) -- @ Seton Hall, 6 p.m. (FS1)
Iowa (39)
SMU (41)
Oklahoma State (44) -- Kansas State, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Pitt (45) -- NC State, 8 p.m. (ESPNU)
Baylor (46)
Arkansas (58)

Truest of the True Bubblers (10)
Oregon (33)
Stanford (42)
GOPHERS (47)
Tennessee (48)
Dayton (49)
Missouri (52)
Cal (53)
Nebraska (55)
Providence (56)
Florida State (57)

In the Mix (6)
Boise State (54)
Saint John's (60)
Georgetown (62)
LSU (64)
Clemson (71)
Illinois (74)
 

Will gophers RPI lower at all with a W vs PSU?
 


I'm assuming that is 5 if there are no upsets/bid stealers from the small conferences.

Any idea what the range is for # of bid stealers per year?
 



The potential bid-stealers

station19 said:
I'm assuming that is 5 if there are no upsets/bid stealers from the small conferences.

Any idea what the range is for # of bid stealers per year?
Click to expand...

Definite/likely bid-stealers if don't win conference tourney (2)
#6 Wichita State (Missouri Valley)

#14 New Mexico or #22 San Diego State (Mountain West)

Possible Bid-Stealers if don't win conference tourney (3)
#25 Gonzaga or #35 BYU (WCC) -- neither a lock for an at-large bid, but I suspect both will get in

#40 Southern Miss (Conference USA) -- I don't like their at-large chances, but RPI is in the at-large range

#50 Green Bay (Horizon) -- decent #52 nonconference SOS includes a win over Virginia; I'd take ahead of Southern Miss. Would committee take a flyer on a solid regular-season champ from a smaller conference? They usually do (see Middle Tennessee last season, though MTSU's RPI was much better than Green Bay's is).

So that would be 5 max, but that doesn't include potential upset winners in the major conferences.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Definite/likely bid-stealers if don't win conference tourney (2)
#6 Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
#14 New Mexico or #22 San Diego State (Mountain West)

Possible Bid-Stealers if don't win conference tourney (3)
#25 Gonzaga or #35 BYU (WCC) -- neither a lock for an at-large bid, but I suspect both will get in
#40 Southern Miss (Conference USA) -- I don't like their at-large chances, but RPI is in the at-large range
#50 Green Bay (Horizon) -- decent #52 nonconference SOS includes a win over Virginia; I'd take ahead of Southern Miss

So that would be 5 max, but that doesn't include potential upset winners in the major conferences.
Click to expand...

I can easily see it happening in the Big 10. Indiana and Illinois have the potential to do some serious damage if they get hot.
 

PitinoFan said:
I can easily see it happening in the Big 10. Indiana and Illinois have the potential to do some serious damage if they get hot.
Click to expand...

Indiana, I can see it, but not Illinois. Illini wouldn't be able to score enough over the course of 4 days.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Indiana, I can see it, but not Illinois. Illini wouldn't be able to score enough over the course of 4 days.
Click to expand...

Probably true, but all it would take is for Illinois to score a big upset and open the door for someone else. It should be an entertaining week.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Definite/likely bid-stealers if don't win conference tourney (2)
#6 Wichita State (Missouri Valley)

#14 New Mexico or #22 San Diego State (Mountain West)

Possible Bid-Stealers if don't win conference tourney (3)
#25 Gonzaga or #35 BYU (WCC) -- neither a lock for an at-large bid, but I suspect both will get in

#40 Southern Miss (Conference USA) -- I don't like their at-large chances, but RPI is in the at-large range

#50 Green Bay (Horizon) -- decent #52 nonconference SOS includes a win over Virginia; I'd take ahead of Southern Miss. Would committee take a flyer on a solid regular-season champ from a smaller conference? They usually do (see Middle Tennessee last season, though MTSU's RPI was much better than Green Bay's is).

So that would be 5 max, but that doesn't include potential upset winners in the major conferences.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

In other words we are sitting on pretty thin ice. Time to move the fish house.
 

station19 said:
In other words we are sitting on pretty thin ice. Time to move the fish house.
Click to expand...

That's about right. With that thin of a line I don't see how anyone would feel comfortable the Gophers are getting in simply by winning their next two games. They could get in with just those two wins, yes, but comfortable certainly wouldn't be in my vocabulary on SS.
 

Good list SS, but I have a hard time buying Arkansas as 'on the threshold' considering they are in the last 4 in with the Gophers and have an RPI of 58, lower than all of the 'true bubblers.' I'd say they're 2-3 wins away.
 



howeda7 said:
Good list SS, but I have a hard time buying Arkansas as 'on the threshold' considering they are in the last 4 in with the Gophers and have an RPI of 58, lower than all of the 'true bubblers.' I'd say they're 2-3 wins away.
Click to expand...

Probably 2 wins for Arkansas, I'd agree with that.

The key is not to fall in love with a team's individual RPI. Basically most of the bubble teams all are in the same neighborhood/predicament. Some are RPI tigers (overvalued) like Southern Miss (#40), while others are undervalued like Arkansas (4 RPI top-50 wins, 8 RPI top-100 wins, strong finishing kick). One key thing the committee will do is identify the teams who have inflated RPIs. Gonzaga (#25) is another team with an inflated RPI. The Zags will be a very interesting case if they get dumped in the WCC tourney.
 

Isn't OK state in no matter what at this point? they did just beat kansas
 

GuyFawkes said:
Isn't OK state in no matter what at this point? they did just beat kansas
Click to expand...

A win tonight over K-State pretty much locks 'em in. Ok State and Baylor are the two major-conference teams with the best chance of earning at-large bids with a sub .500 conference record. The Gophers are the only other one with a realistic shot.

Maybe Oregon? But I don't think the Ducks can afford to lose to both ASU & Arizona at home to end the season, which would put them at 8-10 and on a downslide heading into the Pac 12 tourney.
 

SS,

Realistically how many games does stanford need to win to make the tourney. Just looked at the pac12 standings in the are in a very crowded middle of the pack, and could easily find themselves at the bottom of it with loss or 2 in their remaining games.
 

GuyFawkes said:
SS,

Realistically how many games does stanford need to win to make the tourney. Just looked at the pac12 standings in the are in a very crowded middle of the pack, and could easily find themselves at the bottom of it with loss or 2 in their remaining games.
Click to expand...

IMO Stanford is more on the right side of the bubble than the wrong side of the bubble. If they sweep Colorado and Utah in Palo Alto they're in great shape to get a bid. Don't want to say they'd be a lock yet, but pretty darn close to it. Anything short of that, no, they'll might need an add-on win or two in the Pac 12 tourney.
 

SelectionSunday said:
IMO Stanford is more on the right side of the bubble than the wrong side of the bubble. If they sweep Colorado and Utah in Palo Alto they're in great shape to get a bid. Don't want to say they'd be a lock yet, but pretty darn close to it. Anything short of that, no, they'll might need an add-on win or two in the Pac 12 tourney.
Click to expand...

If Colorado loses @Stanford and @Cal, putting them at 20-11, are they on the hotseat? Closing up the season with four straight loses has make their first round game somewhat of a must-win.
 

Xavier lost to Seton Hall. Not a good loss for the Musketeers but I'll leave it to SS to say just how much it hurts them.
 

And NC State beats Pitt on the road. Bad losses for Xavier and Pitt.
 

Pittsburgh is very puzzling as to why they are as high as they have been on so many brackets.
This seems to be a copy-cat thing going on. They were always near top 25 status, so I think a lot of people are like... okay, so top 6 seeds go through AP 1-24, so I'll give them a 7 seed.
So they keep doing that for a while, and every now and then bumping them to a 8 seed.

But now all of a sudden, they've dropped ass, and you compare them to these other bubble teams and they have nothing going good for them. No good wins. 1-6 vs top 25. Weak schedule. Now an even lower RPI at 52.
It doesn't make sense to me.
 

Face The Facts said:
Pittsburgh is very puzzling as to why they are as high as they have been on so many brackets.
This seems to be a copy-cat thing going on. They were always near top 25 status, so I think a lot of people are like... okay, so top 6 seeds go through AP 1-24, so I'll give them a 7 seed.
So they keep doing that for a while, and every now and then bumping them to a 8 seed.

But now all of a sudden, they've dropped ass, and you compare them to these other bubble teams and they have nothing going good for them. No good wins. 1-6 vs top 25. Weak schedule. Now an even lower RPI at 52.
It doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...

What Pitt has a clear advantage over a team like the Gophers is they have a good road/neutral record (9-3) and don't have any losses to teams with an RPI of 100+. Minnesota can't say that, especially the road/neutral record which is just the opposite (3-9). But after that, the clear advantage is Minnesota. SOS is 3 compared to 84 for Pitt. Minnesota has 3 top 50 wins and only 1 for Pitt. Minnesota with 3 wins against 51-100, Pitt has 4. Maybe I'm biased but I think both teams should be even as of now. Jerry Palm has labeled Pitt as a bubble team in his update this morning, FWIW.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MINN/PITT
 

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