Bubblicious Monday: All Bubblers Now United In One Pile

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SelectionSunday

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From here forward we're lumping all the bubblers into one big, giant pile of angst. Over the last week or so roughly a half dozen to 10 teams had opportunities to cement their at-large bids, but they refused to seal the deal. So with only six days until Selection Sunday, my unofficial count is we have 25 NCAA Tournament hopefuls battling for 14 available at-large bids.

Things have been quiet on the "bid-stealer" front (perhaps Green Bay could steal one), but don't expect that to hold this week. I'm seeing bubble trouble lurking in the Big East (Marquette?), Mountain West (UNLV?), and WCC (San Francisco?). Sunday developments?

(1) Bubble Nation exhales as Wichita State wins the MVC Tournament in convincing fashion.

(2) Wofford beat Georgia Southern and top seed Davidson was upset by Western Carolina, meaning Gophers nonconference opponent Wofford will be the likely favorite in tonight's Southern Conference championship game. If Wofford beats Western Carolina, the Terriers become the second Gophers opponent to earn an automatic bid (joining Coastal Carolina). Go Terriers!

(3) I almost locked in Nebraska with its impressive win over the Badgers, but I couldn't pull the trigger. I'll be really surprised if the Huskers aren't selected, but to close their case it'd be a good idea to beat Ohio State/Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.

(4) Ohio State's win over Michigan State vaulted the Buckeyes into the RPI top 25, giving the Gophers, for now, their second RPI top-25 win.

(5) Just sayin'. North Dakota State's RPI has snuck into the high 30's (#38). Could the Bison be this season's controversial at-large selection (last year it was Middle Tennessee State) if they fail to win the Summit League Tournament?

AVAILABLE BIDS: 14

Auto Bids/Placeholders (32)
Stony Brook (America East), Cincinnati (American), Virginia (ACC), MERCER (Atlantic Sun), Saint Louis (Atlantic 10), Villanova (Big East), Weber State (Big Sky), COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South), Michigan (Big Ten), Kansas (Big XII), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Louisiana Tech (Conference USA), Wright State (Horizon), HARVARD (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Western Michigan (MAC), North Carolina Central (MEAC), WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley), San Diego State (Mountain West), Robert Morris (NEC), EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC), Arizona (Pac 12), Boston U (Patriot), Florida (SEC), Wofford (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC), Utah Valley (WAC).

Locks (22)
Wisconsin (6), Creighton (7), Duke (8), Syracuse (10), Iowa State (11), VCU (13), New Mexico (16), UMass (17), Kentucky (19), Oklahoma (20), North Carolina (21), Louisville (22), Ohio State (23), Michigan State (24), Oregon (25), UCLA (27), UConn (28), Memphis (29), George Washington (30), Colorado (31), Texas (32), Baylor (34)

The Bubblers (25 battling for 14 spots)
BYU (33) -- vs. San Francisco, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Southern Miss (35)
Arizona State (37)
Dayton (39)
Oklahoma State (40)
Nebraska (41) -- beat Wisconsin 77-68
Saint Joseph's (42) -- lost to La Salle 63-71
Stanford (43)
Tennessee (44)
SMU (45)
Pitt (46)
Kansas State (47)
Xavier (48)
Iowa (49)
GOPHERS (51) -- beat Penn State 81-63
Missouri (52)
Georgetown (53)
Providence (54)
Cal (55)
Saint John's (57)
Florida State (59) -- lost to Syracuse 58-74
Arkansas (62)
Green Bay (63)
NC State (66) -- beat Boston College 78-68
Illinois (68)

Conference Tournaments Resuming Tonight
Colonial title game -- 1-bid conference (#1 Delaware highest remaining seed).
MAAC title game -- 1-bid conference (#1 Iona highest remaining seed).
Southern title game -- 1-bid conference (#3 Wofford highest remaining seed); Gophers want Wofford to win it.
Summit semifinals -- slight chance for bid-stealer if North Dakota State doesn't win it (#1 NDSU highest remaining seed).
WCC semifinals -- likely bid-stealer if Gonzaga or BYU doesn't win it (#1 Gonzaga highest remaining seed).

Conference Tournament Starting Tonight
MAC -- slight chance for bid-stealer if Toledo doesn't win it (Western Michigan the #1 seed).
MEAC -- 1-bid conference (North Carolina Central the #1 seed).

NIT Automatic Bids (regular-season champs who don't receive NCAA at-large bid)
Belmont (Ohio Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
Green Bay (Horizon) -- a chance for an at-large bid?
High Point (Big South)
Vermont (America East)
 

In regards to Nebraska, people should remember that they have 3 bad losses, compared to UMn's 2, and UMn has a Top 5 SOS where as Nebraska's SOS is around #26. Also, just because Nebraska got all of their tough games out of the way early in the conf schedule and lost them, and is now seemingly winning out, because now they have the home games combined with the easier road games doesn't mean that they are "hot" right now, it means the schedule was favorable for a rough start and a good finish, which is just what happened. I predicted Nebraska would be right where it is the second they won the road game vs NW. Wasn't hard to see it coming. Only surprise was their beating MSU, but MSU has been reeling lately. Their road win over IU is pretty comparable to our road win over PSU.

The only difference in signature wins is that Iowa's rpi rating is so low compared to its Sag, KP and BPI, otherwise UMn would have the same 3 Top 25 wins.

And yes the RPI has Neb at #42 to UMn's #49, but the Sagarin has UMn at #49 to Nebraska's #55, and the BPI has UMn at #52 to Nebraska's #57.

All of this argue's more for Nebraska NOT being worthy more than UMn being worthy, but with only 13 spots open, why should Nebraska get one of those spots if UMn is more deserving?!

Sure, Nebraska having never won an NCAA tourney game and their late season surge is supposedly a feel good story, but is that what the NCAA tourney should be about, or should it be like all the other NCAA tourney's out there where the most deserving teams are the ones expected to get in?!


Just saying, as a Gopher fan SS, I think it would be a shame if you got caught up in the Nebraska hype that's going on in the media. Maybe I am biased, and I'd admit as much if you took issue with my comments and pointed out where I was being biased, but it can't hurt to play a little devils advocate.
 

PartoPitinosPosse said:
Just saying, as a Gopher fan SS, I think it would be a shame if you got caught up in the Nebraska hype that's going on in the media. Maybe I am biased, and I'd admit as much if you took issue with my comments and pointed out where I was being biased, but it can't hurt to play a little devils advocate.
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No offense taken. A little devil's advocate never hurt anyone.

For clarity, I tend not to get "caught up in the hype" when it comes to selecting the at-larges. I leave that to the talking heads on ESPN and the shock-talk radio hosts who have no clue what they're talking about.
 

If I were a Nebraska fan with 11 conference wins and an RPI around 42, I would be livid if my team didn't get in, even while acknowledging that they had a break in the schedule this year. The fact is they won most of the games they "should" have and won a few they should not have. Right now, other than our head to head disadvantage with the Huskers, I see that they took advantage of their opportunities and we didn't. huskers blew a gimme at Penn State. Other than that, they took care of business and stole a couple (MSU on Road/ WI at home).

I'm not a big fan of bad losses as a criterion. Good wins show what your potential is and how good you can be and I think are more important than bad losses.
 



Holy Man said:
If I were a Nebraska fan with 11 conference wins and an RPI around 42, I would be livid if my team didn't get in, even while acknowledging that they had a break in the schedule this year. The fact is they won most of the games they "should" have and won a few they should not have. Right now, other than our head to head disadvantage with the Huskers, I see that they took advantage of their opportunities and we didn't. huskers blew a gimme at Penn State. Other than that, they took care of business and stole a couple (MSU on Road/ WI at home).

I'm not a big fan of bad losses as a criterion. Good wins show what your potential is and how good you can be and I think are more important than bad losses.
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I fully agree. If the Big ten gets six and the team out is Nebraska, it will go down as one of the royal screw jobs of all time (unless the champion is Minnesota or below).
 



Holy Man said:
If I were a Nebraska fan with 11 conference wins and an RPI around 42, I would be livid if my team didn't get in, even while acknowledging that they had a break in the schedule this year. The fact is they won most of the games they "should" have and won a few they should not have. Right now, other than our head to head disadvantage with the Huskers, I see that they took advantage of their opportunities and we didn't. huskers blew a gimme at Penn State. Other than that, they took care of business and stole a couple (MSU on Road/ WI at home).

I'm not a big fan of bad losses as a criterion. Good wins show what your potential is and how good you can be and I think are more important than bad losses.
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Pretty much this. If you're in a BCS conference and you finish 4 games over .500, you're getting in.
 



howeda7 said:
Pretty much this. If you're in a BCS conference and you finish 4 games over .500, you're getting in.
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Georgia is hoping that's true. They're 12-6 in the SEC, and if they get an at-large bid it'll be the greatest upset since Dewey beat Trurman.
 

Once the committee gets down to about four teams for two spots they start flipping coins.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Georgia is hoping that's true. They're 12-6 in the SEC, and if they get an at-large bid it'll be the greatest upset since Dewey beat Trurman.
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Didn't Washington win the Pac12 and not get invited 2 years ago?
 




SelectionSunday said:
Georgia is hoping that's true. They're 12-6 in the SEC, and if they get an at-large bid it'll be the greatest upset since Dewey beat Trurman.
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Touche. I guess the SEC has had a few of those in the past few years. Going 6-6 in the non-conference with a loss to Davidson will do that.
 

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