Bubble Watch (March 3)

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SelectionSunday

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Tuesday's Results
Clemson 91, Georgia Tech 80
Michigan 83, GOPHERS 55
Ohio State 73, Illinois 57
South Florida 63, DePaul 59
Vandy 64, Florida 60
Villanova 77, Cincinnati 73

Wednesday's Slate
#59 Charlotte at #33 Rhode Island, 6 p.m.
#46 UConn at #68 Notre Dame, 6 p.m. (ESPN)
NC State at #52 Virginia Tech, 6 p.m.
#55 Mississippi State at Auburn, 7 p.m.
Temple at #87 Saint Louis, 7 p.m.
Memphis at #34 UAB, 8 p.m.
Colorado State at #36 San Diego State, 9:30 p.m. (The MTN)

The Skinny: The Gophers go bye-bye from the at-large board. They'll reappear only if they're still playing basketball on Saturday, March 13. Florida, Georgia Tech and Illinois become full-fledged bubble teams with their losses. ... Tonight, Charlotte-Rhode Island essentially is an at-large elimination game. Louisville -- not listed above but a blow-out loser to Marquette -- will become a bubble team if it loses to Syracuse this weekend.

Conference Tournaments Starting Tonight
Atlantic Sun (two quarterfinals)
Patriot (quarterfinals)
 

It looks like just about every score went the way that would have benefited the Gophers last night (except the one that REALLY counted - our own.)

So, the question -- just for the sake of discussion -- with the way those other games fell, had Minnesota won last night, would we have been in your Field of 65 this morning, SS?
 

Likely still would have been out, but could have put themselves in a pretty good position simply by beating Iowa.

This has been a strange season. It's justice that this team will need to win 4 straight in Indy to get a bid. As skitzo as the Gophers have been, I'm just grateful there's a Big Ten Tournament.

Get to the semis. That's all I want, a sniff of the finish line (the automatic bid). I guess I have a little Lloyd Christmas left in me ("So you're sayin' there's a chance.")
 

SS,

What are the chances of the Big Ten only being a four bid league this year?
 

SelectionSunday said:
Likely still would have been out, but could have put themselves in a pretty good position simply by beating Iowa.

This has been a strange season. It's justice that this team will need to win 4 straight in Indy to get a bid. As skitzo as the Gophers have been, I'm just grateful there's a Big Ten Tournament.

Get to the semis. That's all I want, a sniff of the finish line (the automatic bid). I guess I have a little Lloyd Christmas left in me ("So you're sayin' there's a chance.")
Click to expand...

Would you see any scenario (even really far-fetched ones) that could place the Gophers as an at-large candidate? What if they beat Iowa, win three at BTT, lose in BTT final? That would put them at 21-13 (12-10). Would an at-large in that case be longshot or reasonable? I'm just grasping here, I know.
 


25 to 30%

Nothing wrong with grasping. That's all we got (excuse the poor grammar) right now.

That is the only scenario (appearance in BTT final) I'd give the Gophers a chance. If that were to happen, I'd put it into the 25-30% chance range, factoring in that there likely will be bid-stealers in other conferences. Also of importance, we wouldn't want any other upsets on our side of the bracket (i.e. Michigan or Northwestern to the semis as well). That trip to the finals would need to include 2 quality opponents, in a perfect world Michigan State and Purdue. We need quality wins, not just wins.

Far-fetched is an understatement, especially after watching last night's debacle.
 

Illinois

I still think Illinois will get in as long as they beat Wisconsin this weekend, or if not then, when they likely will play again in Indy.

If Illinois loses their next two, the Big Ten in all probability will be a 4-bid league.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Nothing wrong with grasping. That's all we got (excuse the poor grammar) right now.

That is the only scenario (appearance in BTT final) I'd give the Gophers a chance. If that were to happen, I'd put it into the 25-30% chance range, factoring in that there likely will be bid-stealers in other conferences. Also of importance, we wouldn't want any other upsets on our side of the bracket (i.e. Michigan or Northwestern to the semis as well). That trip to the finals would need to include 2 quality opponents, in a perfect world Michigan State and Purdue. We need quality wins, not just wins.

Far-fetched is an understatement, especially after watching last night's debacle.
Click to expand...

I'd go a little higher then 30%. If we proceed to beat Iowa, PSU, Purdue and MSU (our two most likely oppenents) I'd give us at least 50% shot at getting an at-large bid if we lose the BTT Final (as long as its to OSU or Wisconsin). At that point we'd be 21-13, 12-10 with an RPI of around 60-65 and 5 wins over top 25 teams in the RPI (Butler, OSU, Wisconsin, Purdue and MSU). I think that's enough given the relative weakness of the bubble and the fact that the Selection Committee has previously displayed an aversion to adjusting the bracket to account for anything happening in the BTT Final.

Now, are we capable of actually advancing to the BTT final? I have no clue.
 

After last night's dreadful performance, I'm not going to allow myself to get sucked in any longer. If the Gophers make it to the semfinals, then I'll perk up again (in terms of thinking there's access to the tourney other than by the auto bid). Until then. ... we're a non-factor. Let's beat Iowa.
 



Lots of mid majors getting in this year.
 

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