Bubble Watch (March 2)

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SelectionSunday

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Tuesday's Slate
Villanova at #58 Cincinnati, 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
#70 GOPHERS at Michigan, 6 p.m. (BTN)
#66 South Florida at DePaul, 6:30 P.M. (ESPNU)
#73 Illinois at Ohio State, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

The Skinny: In effect, three bubble teams face elimination tonight. ... Cincinnati, South Florida and the Gophers. Lose and their only chance at the NCAA Tournament is via the automatic bid. The good news for Illinois is they can wrap up a bid by winning in Columbus. The bad news is, if they don't, we're talking major choke potential this weekend vs. a sure to be revenge-driven Badger team in Champaign-Urbana.

Conference Tournaments Starting Tonight
Big South (quarterfinals)
Horizon (1st round, seeds 3-10)
Ohio Valley (quarterfinals)
 

OSU's still got a great chance at a #2 seed, so I don't see a letdown there. Illinois appears to be in big, big trouble.
 

SS could you clarify a few terms for me?

What exactly is the last four in, first four out, next four out?

As the Gophers are the first four out on several brackets now does that mean that they're in?
 

SS - interested in your take on Jerry Palm's latest projection from this morning. He has both Illinois and Minnesota OUT and neither amongst the group that is the last four out. Agree?
 

Last 4 In = last 4 at-larges that would be in the tournament.

First 4 Out = first 4 (potential at-large) teams to miss the tournament.
 




Generally speaking, I'm usually more in line with Lunardi than Palm. I respect both, but with regards to assessing the the at-larges I trust Lunardi more than Palm.

I have Illinois solidly in at this point, but that could change in a hurry. Split this week and I think the Illini are pretty safe heading into Indy. Lose both. ... then the Illini are in some trouble.

I have the Gophers as one of my first 4 out, but I certainly understand projections that don't have them anywhere near the cut line. I can't argue with Palm on that. The Gophers are fortunate to even be one of the first 4 out, considering all the games they've let slip away.

Regarding UConn, I have them in this week, probably among the last 1 or 2. There is no bigger bubble game this week than tomorrow's UConn-Notre Dame game in South Bend. It's monstrous for the winner, likely devastating for the loser.
 

First 4 Out = first 4 (potential at-large) teams to miss the tournament.
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So, and I hope I'm not being dense here, the first four out would still be considered the bottom of what would be the bubble or the top?
 



The simplest translation would be. ... come Selection Sunday you do not want to be one of the first 4 out. I wouldn't call it the bottom of the bubble, I'd call it the "wrong side" of the bubble.
 

The simplest translation would be. ... come Selection Sunday you do not want to be one of the first 4 out. I wouldn't call it the bottom of the bubble, I'd call it the "wrong side" of the bubble.
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That works and thanks for answering. :)
 

SelectionSunday said:
Regarding UConn, I have them in this week, probably among the last 1 or 2. There is no bigger bubble game this week than tomorrow's UConn-Notre Dame game in South Bend. It's monstrous for the winner, likely devastating for the loser.
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I see that you have both UCONN and ND in right now. Are you saying the loser of this game is likely out and that might open up another at large spot for our Gophers? (Assuming we can win out of course which is far from a done deal.)
 

It's huge for both, but I think the game is more important for UConn than Notre Dame. Even if Notre Dame loses, they'll have another crack at a quality win this weekend when they play @ Marquette, which would get them to 9-9 in the Big East. If UConn loses, the best they could finish in the Big East is 8-10, and that would be assuming they win @ USF this weekend.

This is a tough one to call, but as a Gopher fan I'd prefer Notre Dame win tonight, knock UConn down another peg or two. If the Gophers are fortunate enough to be in the mix after being eliminated from the BTT (unless they win it, of course), these are two teams we'll likely be compared against.
 



Palm is an idiot. There are really only 2 bracketologies i look at. Lunardi, and Bracketography.com. Lunardi has us as the 2nd team out, and Bracketography has us as a 10 seed. We obviously have to win these next 2 to still be considered. Also, you have to figure that Marquette and Louisville are the 6th and 7th teams from the Big East in. Cincinatti, UConn, and Notre Dame are all bubbles. The record I believe is 8 for teams from one conference to make the tournament and that only happened once. So ou have to believe that between those 3, at the most, 1 will make it.
 

SS -

Can you include Florida/Vandy on your bubble watch games for tonight? The Gators are far from a lock at this point, especially with games @Kentucky and against Vandy this week.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Last 4 In = last 4 at-larges that would be in the tournament.

First 4 Out = first 4 (potential at-large) teams to miss the tournament.
Click to expand...

I struggled to understand this also till I finally figured it out a couple of years ago. To me it would be easier to understand if it was: Last four in....Last four out.
 



Thanks guys. I'll trust you and make the correction. My mother will kill me if she sees me butchering the English language.
 

SelectionSunday said:
It's huge for both, but I think the game is more important for UConn than Notre Dame. Even if Notre Dame loses, they'll have another crack at a quality win this weekend when they play @ Marquette, which would get them to 9-9 in the Big East. If UConn loses, the best they could finish in the Big East is 8-10, and that would be assuming they win @ USF this weekend.

This is a tough one to call, but as a Gopher fan I'd prefer Notre Dame win tonight, knock UConn down another peg or two. If the Gophers are fortunate enough to be in the mix after being eliminated from the BTT (unless they win it, of course), these are two teams we'll likely be compared against.
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UConn's AD is on the Selection Committee. That carries some weight. Therefore, I agree, root for ND and make it close to impossible for them to put UConn in with a straight-face. I think they'll put them in if there's any way they can defend doing so. ND does not carry the same influence outside of the fact that Digger Phelps head will explode if they get slighted.
 

jjgopher said:
Palm is an idiot. There are really only 2 bracketologies i look at. Lunardi, and Bracketography.com. Lunardi has us as the 2nd team out, and Bracketography has us as a 10 seed. We obviously have to win these next 2 to still be considered. Also, you have to figure that Marquette and Louisville are the 6th and 7th teams from the Big East in. Cincinatti, UConn, and Notre Dame are all bubbles. The record I believe is 8 for teams from one conference to make the tournament and that only happened once. So ou have to believe that between those 3, at the most, 1 will make it.
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Certainly he's free not to have us on the first four out, etc. But to say we have to win the BTT no matter what? That's ridiclous. You're telling me that if we win our last two, beat Bucky in the quarterfinals and OSU in the semi-finals (just to pick two) then lost in the BTT final, we'd still be out? Not a chance. We'd be about a 75% lock just winning a BTT quarterfinal game and an absolute lock winning a semi-final.
 

howeda7 said:
Certainly he's free not to have us on the first four out, etc. But to say we have to win the BTT no matter what? That's ridiclous. You're telling me that if we win our last two, beat Bucky in the quarterfinals and OSU in the semi-finals (just to pick two) then lost in the BTT final, we'd still be out? Not a chance. We'd be about a 75% lock just winning a BTT quarterfinal game and an absolute lock winning a semi-final.
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I was in the process of posting the same thing but I hit the refresh button instead of the spell check.
 


That's the best and more importantly fair assessment that I've seen. Certainly much more accurate than the ones offered recently by Myron and Doogie. I think Myron and Doogie are so focused on the Gophers' RPI (it is poor, yes) that they don't even look at the other bubble teams with whom the Gophs are most directly competing. Bottom line is if the Gophers get to the semis with 4 straight wins (3 if the #5 seed), their RPI will be fine (perhaps in the 50s) in terms of being in line with other bubble teams.

It all hinges on these last 2 games, obviously. The Gophs must win them both to have a legit shot at it heading to Indy. Would be so helpful to play in the 4-5 game right away & not have to play Thursday.
 

If we win the last two games and Ill. loses last two we will be the #5 seed. The only way Ill. can move above us for consideration is if Ill. makes it to the semifinals of BTT, which I think is unlikely. So if that is the scenario and Gophers are left out there would only be 4 BT teams in the big dance. The Gophers would be left out with wins against two of those teams and 1 point loses to the other two.

Obviously there are a lot of variables(other bubble teams and conference tournaments), but I don't see the NCAA taking only 4 BT teams.
 

I agree SS, that was really a fair assessment of where things stand. I was shocked to say the least.

What pisses me off about it though-

We'd say it's complicated, and that a lot of it could depend on how other bubble teams perform, the overall impression of the Big Ten and how Illinois finishes up. The Illini are in fifth in the Big Ten at 10-6, but their RPI (73) is even lower than sixth-place Minnesota's (70). Having not paid a ton of attention to RPI up until this point, we were kind of stunned to see Illinois was so low.
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And it's what frustrates me to no end with some of our local media - What do you mean you were stunned?!? I mean, isn't it like your business to know these things? I listened to Rosen yesterday on KFAN blather on about the Gophers strictly being an NIT team and having zero chance of making the NCAA's. Ah, pardon me LittleMarkieRosenAhRosenAhRosen ( if anyone remembers that from years ago ) You're wrong. Inexcusably wrong for someone in your position. Doogie and others too. They're friggin clueless.

They need to start reading the Gopherhole more often. :)

Sorry, rant over. Carry on.
 

station19 said:
If we win the last two games and Ill. loses last two we will be the #5 seed. The only way Ill. can move above us for consideration is if Ill. makes it to the semifinals of BTT, which I think is unlikely. So if that is the scenario and Gophers are left out there would only be 4 BT teams in the big dance. The Gophers would be left out with wins against two of those teams and 1 point loses to the other two.

Obviously there are a lot of variables(other bubble teams and conference tournaments), but I don't see the NCAA taking only 4 BT teams.
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That is a valid point. They beat the 'teams get bids not conferences' drum to death. But to have four teams as probably #5 seeds or higher (and all in the Top 25) make it and no one else would be almost unheard of.
 

Rand

I give Rand credit for admitting he hasn't followed the RPI at all up until now. A lot of folks in his profession would never admit to that. Truth is, I don't blame him for admitting that. Only the wackos (and I consider myself in this group, unfortunately) care about any of this stuff before March.
 

What was the Gophers RPI last year? Why is it so low this year with Butler, A&M and 3 highly-rated Big Ten teams on the schedule?
 

I'll answer your first question. Gophs ended last season with RPI of #42 with a strength of schedule of #35.

Currently (according to CollegeRPI.com) they have a RPI of #70 with a SOS of #42.
 

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