Bubble Watch (February 11)

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SelectionSunday

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Wednesday's Results
Clemson 77, Florida State 67
Dayton 75, Charlotte 47
Iowa 78, Northwestern 65
Old Dominion 64, James Madison 44
Tulsa 60, Southern Miss 52
Syracuse 72, UConn 67
Virginia Tech 72, NC State 62
William & Mary 67, Delaware 54

Thursday's Slate
#42 Louisville at St. John's, 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
#62 Notre Dame at Seton Hall, 6 p.m. (ESPNU)
Michigan at #63 Minnesota, 6 p.m. (ESPN)
#53 Washington at Cal, 8 p.m. (ESPN2)
Ole Miss at #72 Mississippi State, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

The Skinny: Clemson and Dayton picked up highly significant wins last night, while Northwestern used up its one stinker that perhaps it could survive. On life support, Gophers can't slip up at home tonight vs. the reeling Wolverines.
 

Northwestern used up its one stinker that perhaps it could survive down the stretch.
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Sorry, I am understanding correctly that the Iowa loss was not a tournament killer for Northwestern?
 

Was at the game

I was in Iowa City on business yesterday, and was (easily) able to score a ticket to the game. Northwestern indeed laid an egg. Iowa played pretty well, but Northwestern was missing a lot of shots, and doing an atrocious job of rebounding.

They are 5-7, 16-8. Their schedule, as SS has pointed out, is kind've favorable, and if they beat our Gophs on Sunday, they can survive this (Iowa) game.

It is absolutely imperative that we kick them when they are down and beat the snot out of them on Sunday. It is high time that the Gophs quit whining about what might have been and what the coaches are saying, and show some tenacity and some killer instinct (and some ability to convert lay-ups). It is a road game of course, but Evanston is not West Lafayette or Columbus, so it is doable. I'm assuming a little, but a Gopher victory woudl hopefully leave us 7-5, 16-8 and drop NW to 5-8, 16-9, and on bubble life support...

I wish I was more optimistic.....it sure *can* be done.....
 

Not dismissing the Wildcats just yet

Good question. It very well could be a tournament killer (that's why I used the word "perhaps"), but I think the knee-jerk reaction at this time of the year is to write off a bubble team as soon as they suffer a bad loss. This certainly was a stinker at the wrong time for the Wildcats, eerily similar to the one Penn State suffered in Iowa City late last season.

What it means to me is Northwestern now must win the games it could/should win (including the Gophers on Sunday) the rest of the way, which really is every game left on their schedule with the exception of the Badgers in Madison. No more losses to Indiana, Iowa or Penn State. And certainly a Wildcats win at Wisconsin on Feb. 21 would erase the stench of the Iowa loss very quickly.
 

Can we survive a loss at Northwestern?
 


Keep in mind, basing all this conjecture on what I think the Gophers must do to feel secure about a NCAA bid heading into the Big Ten Tournament. ...

Assuming the Gophers win the games they must win (Michigan twice, Indiana, Iowa), yes, I think we can survive a loss at Northwestern. ... but only if we win 2 of Wisconsin/Purdue/@Illinois. That would get the Gophers to 11-7 with 4 or 5 top-50 wins (also Butler & Ohio State). I'd love their chances, especially if there's a road win in Champaign-Urbana.
 

Winning at Illinois ??

SelectionSunday said:
Keep in mind, basing all this conjecture on what I think the Gophers must do to feel secure about a NCAA bid heading into the Big Ten Tournament. ...

Assuming the Gophers win the games they must win (Michigan twice, Indiana, Iowa), yes, I think we can survive a loss at Northwestern. ... but only if we win 2 of Wisconsin/Purdue/@Illinois. That would get the Gophers to 11-7 with 4 or 5 top-50 wins (also Butler & Ohio State). I'd love their chances, especially if there's a road win in Champaign-Urbana.
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Winning at Illinois isn't something I remember the Gophers doing in a very long time.

As I recall our final four team, that did not exist lost at Illinois.

So, anyone, when did we last win at Champaign?
 

Maybe Illinois will be last year's Wisconsin?

In most seasons, at some point a bubble team must prove its intestinal fortitude by beating a NCAA-caliber team on the road. Last year it was Wisconsin for the Gophers (we'd never won there before), maybe it's the Illini for us this season?

I'm just hoping the Gophers are still in the hunt when they visit the Illini. It's very possible the Gophers could be dead and buried by then after playing the Badgers and Boilers.
 

Section201 said:
Winning at Illinois isn't something I remember the Gophers doing in a very long time.

As I recall our final four team, that did not exist lost at Illinois.

So, anyone, when did we last win at Champaign?
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In 1996 IIRC, we were something like 19-10, 9-8 going into the last game of the season (No BTT). All of the experts said if we won in Champaign it was lock-city for the Gophers. No Big 10 team that had ever finished .500, much less with a winning record had ever been left out of the 64 team tournament. Wisconsin had gotten in at 8-10 the year before. Needless to say we won, and got hosed by the Selection Committee. Clem was livid.

That's the last time I remember. If it's happened since, I'd be surprised.
 



SS: Why didn't you include UNC in your 2/11 version of your bubble watch?
 

howeda7 said:
In 1996 IIRC, we were something like 19-10, 9-8 going into the last game of the season (No BTT). All of the experts said if we won in Champaign it was lock-city for the Gophers. No Big 10 team that had ever finished .500, much less with a winning record had ever been left out of the 64 team tournament. Wisconsin had gotten in at 8-10 the year before. Needless to say we won, and got hosed by the Selection Committee. Clem was livid.

That's the last time I remember. If it's happened since, I'd be surprised.
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According to Eric Thrall's webpage, that's correct. The last time we won at Illinois was 1996. We've lost 11 straight there. However, the 1996 win was vacated. Before that, our last win in Champaign was 1978. Removing the vacated games (and assuming I tallied properly), we officially have 23 straight losses at Illinois. Counting the vacated games, we are 1-25 in our last 26 games there. Heck, until we beat them last year in the Barn, we had lost 20 straight to them overall (home, road & neutral)!! We could sure use a win there this year!
 

UNC

The 2-6 (now 2-7) record in the ACC. I can't reasonably consider any team 4 games below .500 in a major conference this late in the season to be on (or near) the bubble. Certainly, the Tar Heels will have opportunities within the ACC to get themselves back into the mix, but even that doesn't look very promising at this point.
 

As it pertains to the Gophers it's nice to see Miami win last night. That should solidify them as a top-100 team come year end. Let's hope they don't creep up much higher into true bubble territory. Currently at 74.

Portland also looks like it could maintain a top 100 rpi. Currently at 84.

SFA and definitely Morgan St have a chance to battle for conference titles. In fact, Morgan St is at RPI 120.

Over analyzing, but fun to cheer for every little piece of the puzzle.
 



Assuming the Gophers win the games they must win (Michigan twice, Indiana, Iowa), yes, I think we can survive a loss at Northwestern. ... but only if we win 2 of Wisconsin/Purdue/@Illinois. That would get the Gophers to 11-7 with 4 or 5 top-50 wins (also Butler & Ohio State). I'd love their chances, especially if there's a road win in Champaign-Urbana.
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Sounds like a plan.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The 2-6 (now 2-7) record in the ACC. I can't reasonably consider any team 4 games below .500 in a major conference this late in the season to be on (or near) the bubble. Certainly, the Tar Heels will have opportunities within the ACC to get themselves back into the mix, but even that doesn't look very promising at this point.
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I just wanted to see it in writing. Makes me smile. :)

Also, to further 'Ol Roy's cause, I'd like to give the following message to the Gopherholers and please pass it on:

To donate $10 to the Carolina Men's Basketball Relief effort, text ROY on your cell phone to 90999

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/11/roy-williams-haiti-analog_n_457906.html

'Ol Roy had this wonderful quote earlier this week:

"Our massage therapist told me, 'You know, coach, what happened in Haiti is a catastrophe. What you're having is a disappointment,' " said Williams. "I told her that depends on what chair you're sitting in. It does feel like a catastrophe to me, because it is my life."

Stay classy 'Ol Roy.
 

Glad I could help Pewter.

I don't think too many college basketball fans (outside of Chapel Hill) are weeping for Roy. We might as well enjoy it while we can because it's not likely to last long.

I was going to use the "you can't spell North Carolina without NIT" joke, but then I thought about the spelling of our favorite state university!
 

Honest question for SS: When was the last time (if ever) that the reigning national champion finished the following year with a losing record? I can't think of any. I'd like to know if UNC is about to make more history this year.

They're currently sitting at 13-11. Here's their remaining schedule

NC St
at #20 GT
at BC
FSU
at Wake
Miami
at #7 Duke

To make it happen, they have to finish 2-5 and then win no more than 1 ACC tourney game. They'll be decided underdogs against GT, Wake, and Duke while it's probably a push at BC and home against FSU. It's certainly possible they beat only NC St and Miami.
 

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