Breaking down the Big 10 Schedule

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howeda7

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As expected there's way too much of the chicken-little act going on here. It would have been great to steal one of these two, but these were two of the three toughest games on the entire Big 10 slate. To break it down:

Likely Losses: Stealing one is great and probably necessary to contend for Big 10 title:

1. @OSU
2. @ MSU
3. @ Wiscy
4. @Purdue

Toss-ups:Would be nice to win 7 of 10:

5. OSU
6. MSU
7. @Michigan
8. @ NW
9. @ Indiana
10. Illinois
11. Purdue
12. NW
13. @ Iowa
14. @ PSU

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

15. Michigan
16. Indiana
17. PSU
18. Iowa
 

Still seeing 11-12 wins. Michigan doesn't seem as scary with Harris and Sims gone, but who knows when we play them.
 

FTB

From the Barn said:
Still seeing 11-12 wins. Michigan doesn't seem as scary with Harris and Sims gone, but who knows when we play them.
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The question is this, "Can this team win the games we think they should win?"

Even this year we bombed against Virginia who lost to Iowa State last night by 13 at home !

Time will tell. Stealing one of these first two would have been a huge leg up.
 

I think you're close but put @Iowa in the likely win category (very bad to lose) and make us 5-9 in the toss-ups. That's 10-8 in a very tough Big 10. After the Big Ten tourney, 22 or 23Ws and 10Ls overall will be good enough to keep us off the Final Selection bubble but not a very good NCAA seed.
 

Section201 said:
The question is this, "Can this team win the games we think they should win?"

Even this year we bombed against Virginia who lost to Iowa State last night by 13 at home !

Time will tell. Stealing one of these first two would have been a huge leg up.
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Still think VA had more to do with no nolen, limited rodney, and reintegration of Joseph. We beat them 9/10 at home Too bad the 1 was the first 1.
 


I'd put 3 or 4 of those "toss-ups" in the likely win category: If this team loses to Iowa, Penn State, or Indiana this year that would fall in to the very bad loss category and make it very difficult to get in to the top 3-4 of the Big Ten.

I am not concerned about any individual game, just how the team is playing. I am not sure it's being a chicken little to be upset about being 0-2 in Big Ten play when it appears the Gophers left their games in San Juan.
 

EG#9 said:
I'd put 3 or 4 of those "toss-ups" in the likely win category: If this team loses to Iowa, Penn State, or Indiana this year that would fall in to the very bad loss category and make it very difficult to get in to the top 3-4 of the Big Ten.

I am not concerned about any individual game, just how the team is playing. I am not sure it's being a chicken little to be upset about being 0-2 in Big Ten play when it appears the Gophers left their games in San Juan.
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I certainly hope to win the road games at Iowa, Indiana and PSU. But I don't consider any Big 10 road game a lock. Especially Indiana, as last year proved. The only individual losses that would cause me to hit the panic button would be a home loss to those 3 teams or Michigan.

And can we get over the UVa loss please? They are an extremely young team that is capable of looking great and winning back-to-back road games at MN and VT one week then looking awful the next. That happens when you play so many freshman/sophs.
 

howeda7 said:
Likely Losses: Stealing one is great and probably necessary to contend for Big 10 title:

1. @OSU
2. @ MSU
3. @ Wiscy
4. @Purdue

Toss-ups:Would be nice to win 7 of 10:

5. OSU
6. MSU
7. @Michigan
8. @ NW
9. @ Indiana
10. Illinois
11. Purdue
12. NW
13. @ Iowa
14. @ PSU

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

15. Michigan
16. Indiana
17. PSU
18. Iowa
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I would put 10-14 in the should win catagory. 5-9 will determine how good the Gophers are.
 





1. @OSU L
2. @ MSU L
3. @ Wiscy L
4. @Purdue L
5. OSU L
6. MSU W
7. @Michigan W
8. @ NW W
9. @ Indiana W
10. Illinois W
11. Purdue W
12. NW W
13. @ Iowa W
14. @ PSU W
15. Michigan W
16. Indiana W
17. PSU W
18. Iowa W

if a regular season record of 24 - 6 isn't good enough for you ... please seek help.

This team should only lose at home to tOSU, other than that, they should not lose at home. It's that simple. Handle business at home, beat the bad / average teams on the road and you have a 24-6 record. Sorry to those expecting 30-0.
 

howeda7 said:
As expected there's way too much of the chicken-little act going on here. It would have been great to steal one of these two, but these were two of the three toughest games on the entire Big 10 slate. To break it down:

Likely Losses: Stealing one is great and probably necessary to contend for Big 10 title:

1. @OSU
2. @ MSU
3. @ Wiscy
4. @Purdue

Toss-ups:Would be nice to win 7 of 10:

5. OSU
6. MSU
7. @Michigan
8. @ NW
9. @ Indiana
10. Illinois
11. Purdue
12. NW
13. @ Iowa
14. @ PSU

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

15. Michigan
16. Indiana
17. PSU
18. Iowa
Click to expand...

The 'real' season begins now. The 10 'toss-up' games are what will make or break the season and we haven't played one yet. First up, Purdue. Do I wish we'd stolen one of these 3 losses? Sure. But we're still on track for 11-7, 22-8 if we can simply win 7 of these crucial 10.
 

howeda7 said:
The 'real' season begins now. The 10 'toss-up' games are what will make or break the season and we haven't played one yet. First up, Purdue. Do I wish we'd stolen one of these 3 losses? Sure. But we're still on track for 11-7, 22-8 if we can simply win 7 of these crucial 10.
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That seems very attainable. 3-2 at home and 4-1 on the road in those games (for instance) would put us in pretty good shape going into the BTT (assuming we win all of the probable wins).
 



Alright, here is howda7's original post updated through the Purdue game:







Likely Losses: Stealing one is great and probably necessary to contend for Big 10 title:

1. @Purdue

Toss-ups:Would be nice to win 6 of 9:

2. OSU
3. MSU
4. @Michigan
5. @ NW
6. @ Indiana
7. Illinois
8. NW
9. @ Iowa
10. @ PSU

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

11. Michigan
12. PSU
13. Iowa







Don't you think 11-7 or even 12-6 seems a heck of a lot more likely than the bubble team drivel people were spouting off earlier this week?
 

z-stein said:
Alright, here is howda7's original post updated through the Purdue game:







Likely Losses: Stealing one is great and probably necessary to contend for Big 10 title:

1. @Purdue

Toss-ups:Would be nice to win 6 of 9:

2. OSU
3. MSU
4. @Michigan
5. @ NW
6. @ Indiana
7. Illinois
8. NW
9. @ Iowa
10. @ PSU

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

11. Michigan
12. PSU
13. Iowa







Don't you think 11-7 or even 12-6 seems a heck of a lot more likely than the bubble team drivel people were spouting off earlier this week?
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I'll still be pretty happy with 11. With the possible exception of @ Iowa, there will be zero easy road wins and any that we can eke out will be a gift. We don't match up well with Michigan, Assembly Hall is always difficult to win in, and we've seen what PSU has done at BJC so far.
 

Updated through the Iowa, Michigan, and Northwestern games:

Likely Losses: Stealing one is great and probably necessary to contend for Big 10 title

1. @Purdue

Toss-ups: Would be nice to win 4 of 7

2. OSU
3. MSU
4. @ NW
5. @ Indiana
6. Illinois
7. @ Iowa
8. @ PSU

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

9. Michigan
10. PSU

Losing to Purdue, winning the "Likely wins," and winning 4 of the 7 toss ups would give the Gophers an 11-7 record. Doing it without Nolen will be tough, but I think the Gophers have a great chance to win (at least) 5 of those 7 toss ups---winning 2/3 vs OSU, MSU, and Illinois and dropping one of the toss up road games for example.

I know, I know--one game at a time, but I like to get a feel for I hope and think the rest of the season could play out.

Now, let's beat Purdue and start thinking more in the 13-14 win range. ;)
 

<<Toss-ups: Would be nice to win 4 of 7

2. OSU
3. MSU
4. @ NW
5. @ Indiana
6. Illinois
7. @ Iowa
8. @ PSU>>

Sorry, but I think you can put OSU in the Likely Loss Category. They ARE the best team in the country right now.
 

station19 said:
<<Toss-ups: Would be nice to win 4 of 7

2. OSU
3. MSU
4. @ NW
5. @ Indiana
6. Illinois
7. @ Iowa
8. @ PSU>>

Sorry, but I think you can put OSU in the Likely Loss Category. They ARE the best team in the country right now.
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I think our height will give them issues (although I am very scared about Lighty/Diebler). And we are at home so you never know...
 


station19 said:
<<Toss-ups: Would be nice to win 4 of 7

2. OSU
3. MSU
4. @ NW
5. @ Indiana
6. Illinois
7. @ Iowa
8. @ PSU>>

Sorry, but I think you can put OSU in the Likely Loss Category. They ARE the best team in the country right now.
Click to expand...

Obviously, the original list was made at the beginning of Big 10 play. That said, while it may be stubborn homer pride, I refuse to say any game at The Barn has to be called a 'likely loss' even if it's against #1.
 

howeda7 said:
Obviously, the original list was made at the beginning of Big 10 play. That said, while it may be stubborn homer pride, I refuse to say any game at The Barn has to be called a 'likely loss' even if it's against #1.
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Kudos to your 'subborness'.:cool02:

Notice I put them in the 'Likely' Loss category. Not for sure loss.
 

station19 said:
Kudos to your 'subborness'.:cool02:

Notice I put them in the 'Likely' Loss category. Not for sure loss.
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There are very few 'sure losses' in MN sports.

Vikings @ TB

Twins v Yankees in the play-offs

Gopher football vs OSU

Gopher football vs Michigan

Gopher football @ Wicsoncin

Gopher football @ Iowa

Gopher football vs anyone in Insight Bowl

Wait, maybe it's mainly one team that's the problem...
 

howeda7 said:
There are very few 'sure losses' in MN sports.

Vikings @ TB

Twins v Yankees in the play-offs

Gopher football vs OSU

Gopher football vs Michigan

Gopher football @ Wicsoncin

Gopher football @ Iowa

Gopher football vs anyone in Insight Bowl

Wait, maybe it's mainly one team that's the problem...
Click to expand...

Timberwolves, Wild, Gopher WBB, Lynx.
 


station19 said:
Timberwolves, Wild, Gopher WBB, Lynx.
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Eh. The Wild are the only one of those that qualifies as more then a minor sport and I don't know of any particular teams they've failed to beat.
 

OSU's gonna' get beat sometime; it might as well be the Gophers.

Beating OSU certainly would eliminate most of the angst we typically have at the end of a season (bubble). A win over OSU would almost be like 2-3 wins in the eyes of the Selection Committee. It's like someone from the ACC (i.e Florida State) notching a win over Duke.

A 9-9 Big Ten regular season without a win over OSU and the Gophers still might get in, but 9-9 with a marquee win the caliber of OSU (added to UNC, West Virginia, Purdue, etc.) and the Gophers would be lock city.
 

I hoped to update this saying the Gophers would be 4-0 in the original toss up games, but things didn't work out that way. I have rearranged the original order of games to fit what I think are the toughest games left in each category.

Updated through the Purdue and Indiana games:

Toss-ups: Would be nice to win 4 of 6

1. OSU
2. @ PSU
3. Illinois
4. @ NW
5. MSU
6. @ Iowa

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

7. PSU
8. Michigan

Winning the "Likely wins" and winning 4/6 of the "Toss ups" would put the Gophers at 11-7 with a decent seed (maybe 6-7 or so?).

If you want to put Ohio St. in the "Likely Loss" category, that is fine by me (although no game at the Barn is a likely loss IMO). That would mean the Gophers would need to win 3/5 of the other "Toss ups" in order to go 10-8 and still be an absolute lock for the NCAA tournament.
 


Updated through the Ohio St. game:

Toss-ups: Would be nice to win 4 of 5

1. @ PSU
2. Illinois
3. @ NW
4. MSU
5. @ Iowa

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

6. PSU
7. Michigan

Winning the "Likely wins" and winning 4/5 of the "Toss ups" would put the Gophers at 11-7. After the recent loses, this seems a little more unlikely, however winning 3/5 of the toss ups (and the likely wins) would put the Gophers at 10-8 with solid NCAA footing.

It still isn't panic time. The Gophers are now in a 3 way tie for 5th place in the conference and will move into a tie for fourth with a win over Illinois on Thursday. The rpi has moved down to (a still solid) 27 after the loss to Ohio St. (according to live-rpi.com). The Gophers have the fourth best resume in the conference (much better than those of Mich St., Illinois, and Penn St.).

The Illinois game is huge. A win would put the Gophers in great shape to make their third consecutive NCAA tournament, while a loss would put this team back in bubble land. I'm not going to call this a must win, as, the way the season is playing out, it seems more and more likely that finishing 9-9 in conference with a win in the Big Ten tournament would still get this team into the Big Dance.

Go Gophers!
 

z-stein said:
Updated through the Ohio St. game:

Toss-ups: Would be nice to win 4 of 5

1. @ PSU
2. Illinois
3. @ NW
4. MSU
5. @ Iowa

Likely wins: Losing any of these would be bad.

6. PSU
7. Michigan

Winning the "Likely wins" and winning 4/5 of the "Toss ups" would put the Gophers at 11-7. After the recent loses, this seems a little more unlikely, however winning 3/5 of the toss ups (and the likely wins) would put the Gophers at 10-8 with solid NCAA footing.

It still isn't panic time. The Gophers are now in a 3 way tie for 5th place in the conference and will move into a tie for fourth with a win over Illinois on Thursday. The rpi has moved down to (a still solid) 27 after the loss to Ohio St. (according to live-rpi.com). The Gophers have the fourth best resume in the conference (much better than those of Mich St., Illinois, and Penn St.).

The Illinois game is huge. A win would put the Gophers in great shape to make their third consecutive NCAA tournament, while a loss would put this team back in bubble land. I'm not going to call this a must win, as, the way the season is playing out, it seems more and more likely that finishing 9-9 in conference with a win in the Big Ten tournament would still get this team into the Big Dance.

Go Gophers!
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The Illinois game is now the biggest game of the year. Just have to have it. We have been given a huge break. While we have been tanking- so has MSU, Illinois and Penn State. Win against Illinois and then go down to Iowa and beat a team we really ought to beat 9 of 10 times- and we'll be fine.
 

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