Breaking Down the 13 CFP Contenders

Donate To GopherHole
S

SelectionSunday

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
25,040
Reaction score
5,655
Points
113
A mathematical formula only.

# of wins (FCS opponents count as 1/2)

+

# of wins by defeated FBS opponents

divided by

# of games played

The Rankings
1. Michigan State (10-1) (70/11) = 6.363
2. Clemson (11-0) 69.5/11 = 6.318
3. Alabama (10-1) 68.5./11 = 6.227
4. Oklahoma (10-1) 65/11 = 5.909
5. Notre Dame (10-1) 62/11 = 5.636
6. Florida (10-1) 60/11 = 5.454
7. Ohio State (10-1) 59/11 = 5.363
8. Iowa (11-0) 58.5/11 = 5.318
9. Stanford (9-2) 55/11 = 5.0
10. Oklahoma State (10-1) 50.5/11 = 4.59
11. North Carolina (10-1) 50/11 = 4.545
12. Baylor (9-1) 43.5/10 = 4.35
13. Michigan (9-2) 45/11 = 4.09

Best 3 Wins
Alabama -- vs. Wisconsin, @ Mississippi State, @ Texas A&M
Baylor -- @ Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech, WEST VIRGINIA
Clemson -- NOTRE DAME, FLORIDA STATE, @ NC State
Florida -- OLE MISS, vs. Georgia, TENNESSEE
Iowa -- @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, PITT
Michigan -- NORTHWESTERN, BYU, @ Penn State
Michigan State -- @ Ohio State, @ Michigan, OREGON
North Carolina -- @ Pitt, MIAMI-FLORIDA, DUKE
Notre Dame -- @ Temple, NAVY, @ Pitt
Ohio State -- NORTHERN ILLINOIS, PENN STATE, @ Virginia Tech
Oklahoma -- @ Baylor, TCU, @ Tennessee
Oklahoma State -- TCU, @ West Virginia, @ Texas Tech
Stanford -- UCLA, @ USC, ARIZONA

Losses
Alabama -- OLE MISS
Baylor -- OKLAHOMA
Florida -- @ LSU
Michigan -- @ Utah, MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan State -- @ Nebraska
North Carolina -- vs. South Carolina
Notre Dame -- @ Clemson
Ohio State -- MICHIGAN STATE
Oklahoma -- vs. Texas
Oklahoma State -- BAYLOR
Stanford -- @ Northwestern, OREGON

@ = road game
ALL CAPS = home game
vs. = neutral site

Games vs. FCS Opponents
Alabama (1)
Baylor (1)
Clemson (1)
Iowa (1)
North Carolina (2)
Oklahoma State (1)
 

Interesting how your formula works. I agree with the results. I think the 4 spots are Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Michigan State's to lose. With the only potential threat being how the committee views Notre Dame.
 

Alabama being ranked ahead of unbeaten teams is a joke.


It would be one thing if they had a bunch of quality wins.

Northwestern has more quality wins and more quality losses than Alabama.
Iowa has more quality wins than Alabama and no loss.



Alabama being ranked number 2 is completely eye test. Which is I guess why they have the committee. I personally am less impressed by Alabama playing a bunch of 7 and 8 win teams than I am with Oklahoma beating 2 10 win teams.
 

No fancy stats or insider info to back this up, but IMO the Winner of Iowa/Michigan State (assuming they both win next week) would be darn close to a lock for the playoff.

Michigan State would have one loss @ Nebraska, a win vs an undefeated Iowa squad, and road wins over Michigan and OSU.

Iowa would be 13-0 in the Big 10, including wins @ Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, and vs Michigan State.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Some guy said:
Alabama being ranked ahead of unbeaten teams is a joke.


It would be one thing if they had a bunch of quality wins.

Northwestern has more quality wins and more quality losses than Alabama.
Iowa has more quality wins than Alabama and no loss.



Alabama being ranked number 2 is completely eye test. Which is I guess why they have the committee. I personally am less impressed by Alabama playing a bunch of 7 and 8 win teams than I am with Oklahoma beating 2 10 win teams.
Click to expand...

It all comes down to juggling who the best teams are and who the most accomplished teams are. My opinion is you need to look at both. I hear a lot of people say Team A would beat Team B more often than not so Team A should be ranked higher. If that is the only criteria, then why even keep track of records?

Alabama could lose another game or two and I would still think they probably beat Iowa most times if they played each other. That doesn't mean Alabama should get in over an undefeated Iowa team.
 


If Notre Dame in top 4 tomorrow. ...

GophersInIowa said:
It all comes down to juggling who the best teams are and who the most accomplished teams are. My opinion is you need to look at both. I hear a lot of people say Team A would beat Team B more often than not so Team A should be ranked higher. If that is the only criteria, then why even keep track of records?

Alabama could lose another game or two and I would still think they probably beat Iowa most times if they played each other. That doesn't mean Alabama should get in over an undefeated Iowa team.
Click to expand...

You make an excellent point. I'm more of a "resume & results" guy than an eye-test guy, so what frustrates me is when someone starts saying "This team would beat that team on a neutral field." To me that's code for, "I know the other team has the better resume & has proven it more on the field, but I just think the other team is better, so that's that."

I'm not saying that's the case with Alabama. I think the Tide as a 1-loss team has a solid resume & obviously they're a really good football team that is playing well. But I certainly think it applies to Notre Dame. To this point, I'm trying to figure out why the committee values the Irish so much. Basically the best thing they have going for them is they have the "best loss" of all the 1-loss teams. After that its best wins are Navy/@ Temple/@ Pitt (pick 1)? In terms of 1-loss teams, despite having worse losses, I'd take MSU and Oklahoma's resumes over Notre Dame in a heartbeat.

I think tomorrow's rankings are the first ones that'll tell us a lot. What happens between #3-6 will be really interesting. If Notre Dame is still in the top 4 after the results from Saturday (ND squeaks by a really bad BC team, Iowa crushes a bad Purdue team, Sparty wins @ OSU, Oklahoma beats TCU), Rece Davis should be all over that when he questions the Selection Committee chairman.
 

Absolute Certainties: (i.e. Teams in if they win out)
Alabama
Clemson
Iowa
Michigan State

Maybes: (if they win out)
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Baylor
Florida
Oklahoma State

If everything goes their way: (Must win out and get some help)
Ohio State (needs PSU to beat MSU)
Stanford (Needs Florida to lose to Alabama, Bama to lose to Auburn and florida to win SEC, chaos in Big 12)
North Carolina (needs a lot to happen)
Michigan (Needs PSU to win and ND to lose and chaos in Big 12)

My Final Four:
Clemson
Alabama
Michigan State
Notre Dame

I can't see the committee stiffing a 1 loss Irish team.
 

Otis said:
Absolute Certainties: (i.e. Teams in if they win out)
Alabama
Clemson
Iowa
Michigan State

Maybes: (if they win out)
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Baylor
Florida
Oklahoma State

If everything goes their way: (Must win out and get some help)
Ohio State (needs PSU to beat MSU)
Stanford (Needs Florida to lose to Alabama, Bama to lose to Auburn and florida to win SEC, chaos in Big 12)
North Carolina (needs a lot to happen)
Michigan (Needs PSU to win and ND to lose and chaos in Big 12)

My Final Four:
Clemson
Alabama
Michigan State
Notre Dame

I can't see the committee stiffing a 1 loss Irish team.
Click to expand...

Good summary. I would say Florida is pretty close to a lock if they win out. I don't see the committee leaving out a 1-loss SEC Champion.
 

If they all have one loss, ND should absolutely not get in ahead of MSU or Oklahoma. But I'm sure they will.
 



GophersInIowa said:
Good summary. I would say Florida is pretty close to a lock if they win out. I don't see the committee leaving out a 1-loss SEC Champion.
Click to expand...

Yes. But they will simply take Alabama's place, one would hope.
 

howeda7 said:
If they all have one loss, ND should absolutely not get in ahead of MSU or Oklahoma. But I'm sure they will.
Click to expand...

Yes, I'm thinking a lot of people (other than Notre Dame fans) are thinking the same thing.

My guess is it'll be a moot point. Stanford will beat the Irish this weekend.
 

Tuesday's rankings

When the new rankings come out Tuesday, look for Michigan State and Notre Dame to be the only teams with 3 wins over (current) top-25 teams. Look for Temple and Pitt to move into the top 25, giving Notre Dame wins 2 and 3 (to go along with Navy).

That is, unless the committee for some "crazy" reason decides to rank Georgia and/or LSU (losers of 3 straight), which would give Alabama 3 or 4 wins vs. the top 25, and thus add them to the list.
 

What the committee will do with top 6 ... What I think rankings should be

To me there's a clear top 6 moving forward until 1 of 'em loses.

Here's what I think the committee will do. ...
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Iowa
4 Notre Dame
5 Sparty
6 Oklahoma

They'll move both Temple and Pitt into the rankings, which will allow them to justify (prop up) having Notre Dame in the top 4.

Here's what I think rankings should be. ...
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Sparty
4 Iowa
5 Oklahoma
6 Notre Dame
 



mnsportsgeek said:
Interesting how your formula works. I agree with the results. I think the 4 spots are Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Michigan State's to lose. With the only potential threat being how the committee views Notre Dame.
Click to expand...

True, but if Iowa gets 13-0 they're in. Suppose that would eliminate sparty in the process, but I doubt Notre dame gets in over Iowa in that scenario. May be Oklahoma
 

Yep, I agree that the most ball-busting scenario for the committee will be if Alabama, Clemson, Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame all win out. Which one do you leave out? In my opinion, unbeaten Clemson would be the only sure thing in that scenario. The committee would really have to scrub away at the resumes of Alabama, Sparty, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame.

All that said, the great thing about college football is it's never neat and tidy. Sh*t will happen. There will be carnage in the next two weeks. My guess is Clemson chokes in the ACC title game, losing a shootout to UNC.
 

SelectionSunday said:
When the new rankings come out Tuesday, look for Michigan State and Notre Dame to be the only teams with 3 wins over (current) top-25 teams. Look for Temple and Pitt to move into the top 25, giving Notre Dame wins 2 and 3 (to go along with Navy).

That is, unless the committee for some "crazy" reason decides to rank Georgia and/or LSU (losers of 3 straight), which would give Alabama 3 or 4 wins vs. the top 25, and thus add them to the list.
Click to expand...

Iowa's wins over NW, WI and Pitt >>>> ND's wins over Navy, Temple and Pitt
 



It's Committee Day

Notre Dame should not be in the top 4.

Fighting Irish should not be in top 4.

The team with the most annoying mascot in the country should not be in the top 4.

The Golden Domers should not be in the top 4.

I repeat, Notre Dame should not be. ...

If ND wins @ Stanford this weekend, then we'll talk. In the meantime, if Irish are in today's top 4 all 1-loss teams should be very afraid moving forward. Last year the committee got it right with the final 4. Hoping that's the case again this year.
 

Notre Dame has more quality wins than Alabama in terms of ranking.

Notre dame has a close loss to #1 on the road and wins against 2 ranked teams. Alabama has beaten one to this point and lost at home to another.

(In the AP anyways)
 

Surprised Oklahoma is so high. I think Michigan St. should be ahead of them.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom