Breakin' It Down (12 bids available as of today)

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SelectionSunday

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Please note, I'm being as lenient as I can possibly be with the bubble. This is a very inclusive list, not an exclusive one. Quite a few of the "On the Bubble" teams are longshots at best, including the likes of reeling Cincinnati, Matt Janning's Northeastern squad and, of course, the Gophers. It's a weak bubble pool, so I'm trying not to rule anyone out who has a sliver's chance in the event they make a run in their conference tourney.

Here's how I think the field is shakin' down heading into Thursday night. "Automatics" with an * means I believe that team is a certainty to receive an at-large bid even if it fails to win its conference tournament. RPI is listed in parentheses.

Automatics (31)
*Kansas (1)
*Syracuse (2)
*Duke (3)
*Kentucky (4)
*New Mexico (8)
*Temple (15)
*Butler (17)
*Northern Iowa (21)
Cal (22)
*Ohio State (28)
*Utah State (32)
*Gonzaga (35)
Old Dominion (39)
Siena (40)
UTEP (44)
Cornell (46)
Kent State (48)
Oakland (57)
Murray State (69)
Sam Houston State (73)
Wofford (78)
Weber State (80)
UCSB (103)
Morgan State (108)
Troy (121)
Coastal Carolina (124)
Jacksonville (129)
Stony Brook (137)
Quinnipiac (142)
Lehigh (164)
Jackson State (208)

Locks (22 gets us to 53)
1. Kansas State (5)
2. West Virginia (6)
3. Villanova (7)
4. Pitt (9)
5. Baylor (10)
6. Purdue (11)
7. Texas A&M (12)
8. Vanderbilt (13)
9. Georgetown (14)
10. Tennessee (16)
11. Wisconsin (18)
12. Xavier (19)
13. Maryland (20)
14. BYU (23)
15. Michigan State (24)
16. Clemson (25)
17. Texas (26)
18. Oklahoma State (27)
19. Richmond (30)
20. Missouri (31)
21. Florida State (38)
22. Marquette (47)

Need 1 More Win (up to 3, that would get us to 54-56)
1. Wake Forest (34)
2. Louisville (36)
3. UNLV (43)

On the Bubble (leaves us with 24 bubblers fighting for final 9-11 spots)
1. Rhode Island (29)
2. San Diego State (33)
3. Georgia Tech (37)
4. Dayton (41)
5. UAB (42)
6. St. Mary’s (45)
7. UConn (49)
8. Wichita State (50)
9. Memphis (51)
10. Florida (52)
11. Virginia Tech (53)
12. Arizona State (54)
13. Washington (55)
14. Ole Miss (56)
15. William & Mary (58)
16. Mississippi State (59)
17. Charlotte (60)
18. Notre Dame (61)
19. Seton Hall (63)
20. Cincinnati (65)
21. South Florida (67)
22. Northeastern (70)
23. Illinois (72)
24. Minnesota (77)

***A little history. I've tried projecting the field since the 1991-92 season. These are my report cards, so to speak. Trust me, I wouldn't lie about this.;) I'll have two more projections for this season, one on Monday and the final one very early Sunday morning (as in 2-3 a.m.) on Selection Sunday (March 14). I'll do my best to duplicate the 2000-01 and 2008-09 seasons.

Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2008-09)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
TOTALS: 574/612 (93.8%)
LAST 5 YEARS: 162/170 (95.3%)
 

SS,
As a "bracketologist", would you say that this season is shaping up to be a little tougher to predict than the past? Or no?
 

Overall I think it's going to be easier to pick, especially if there are a lot of upsets in the conference tournaments. It's safe to say that the last 4-6 bids will go to teams more suited for the NIT.
 

No, I'm talking your picks on SS on which teams make the final at large spots. I just got a feeling you were talking about filling out the actual brackets and predicting the games.
 

Gophers Need To W Over Iowa Then W Big 10 Tourney

Anything less = close but not quite.
 


Friend Of Tubby said:
Anything less = close but not quite.
Click to expand...

How many 'W Big 10 tourney'? All of them? Then the Iowa win is not terribly relevant. Anyway, the buble really is awfully weak when you look at it. I think 3 more wins (advancing to BTT semi's) sadly gives us at least a reasonable shot depending on how the various conference tournaments break.
 

I think the Gophers would be in pretty good shape if they can get to the finals. Semi's might give them an outside shot.
 


SS, how do you do on average once the bracket is done and it's time to make NCAA tournament picks?
 



Way to go out on a limb FOT. Win the Big Ten Tourney and then in. Wow, amazing.
 

betterdeadthanred said:
SS, how do you do on average once the bracket is done and it's time to make NCAA tournament picks?
Click to expand...
That's not quite as much of a science as actually seeding the bracket and picking the at-larges is. Mostly dumb luck :confused:
 

Let's just say I have more success pegging the at-larges than I do picking the games. I can't remember the last time I finished in the money in an office pool.
 

FOT ???

Gophers Need To W Over Iowa Then W Big 10 Tourney

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friend Of Tubby said:
Anything less = close but not quite.
Click to expand...


This does not compute. Did you mistype? Am I reading this wrong? :confused:

The Iowa game means ziltch.

Iowa could beat us by 60 and if we then win the BTT, we are dancing. Period.

We won't win the BTT but if we did...

:)
 



howeda7 said:
How many 'W Big 10 tourney'? All of them? Then the Iowa win is not terribly relevant. Anyway, the buble really is awfully weak when you look at it. I think 3 more wins (advancing to BTT semi's) sadly gives us at least a reasonable shot depending on how the various conference tournaments break.
Click to expand...

All 4 W in Big 10 tourney. The Iowa W is necessary to keep their momentum going / spirits high going into Big 10 tourney.
 

Section201 said:
Gophers Need To W Over Iowa Then W Big 10 Tourney

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




This does not compute. Did you mistype? Am I reading this wrong? :confused:

The Iowa game means ziltch.

Iowa could beat us by 60 and if we then win the BTT, we are dancing. Period.

We won't win the BTT but if we did...

:)
Click to expand...

See my reasoning above. Must W over Iowa to head into Big 10 tourney on a high note.
 


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