Bookies and Vegas welcome all bets on MN with open arms...

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JPIIGopher

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at least that's my read on this game. The latest reports online suggest that 66% of all wagers against the spread are on MN and 90% of all money line wagers(straight up to win) are on the Gophers. Since Vegas isn't in the losing money business (see SF -7 vs Vikings for more on that) this could be bad news for our Gophers. I've been handicapping college football for almost a decade and this is one of the more perplexing lines I have seen in a while. How can a team that lost home games to Iowa St and Central Michigan be favored by 7-7.5 against a team that is 4-0 and seemingly getting better every week?

I think the answer lies in the Hawkeyes new found RB Mark Weisman. He gashed C Mich for 217 yards on 8yds/carry. Not impressed? LeVeon Bell considered to be one of the top backs in the country went for 70 yards on 18 carries for 3.9ypc against C Mich.

While the Gophers have had great success defending the pass we haven't defended the run very well at all. Through four games the Gophers are giving up an average of 5.16 yards/carry(taken from top 2 runners on each team) And this from teams that are pass first spread offenses.

On offense against Syracuse we struggled to get the ball in the endzone. NW and USC each put up 40+ and we managed only 17pts..and this with 4 turnovers from Syracuse. Our shakey FG kicking combined with penalties, injuries on the O-line, and Shortell's inexperience could be a problem in Iowa's hostile environment.

Given all this I think the oddsmakers are predicting a 9-10 pt Hawkeye win...something like 24-14. Of course every now and then Vegas is wrong! Let's hope they have underestimated Max Shortell and his band of no names on offense. Let's hope our defense learns how to stop the run just in time to #ProtectthePig!
 

Nothing like waking up with nancy negative. Vegas sets a line to even the wagering out not the game. Iowa is one dimensional so load the box and capitalize on red zone chances.Gosh, I hope JK reads this thread before kickoff.
 

I think he was explaining why we are 7 point dogs. Did a good job of it too. Hopefully Hageman can stop their run. And please, let's have no missed chip shot FGs and at least average punting.
 

JPIIGopher said:
I think the answer lies in the Hawkeyes new found RB Mark Weisman.
Click to expand...

I hope our answer lies with Brendan Beal. It's one thing to defend the run when the offense is in a spread formation, and another when they line up in run formations. Beal should play a lot today.
 

JPIIGopher said:
at least that's my read on this game. The latest reports online suggest that 66% of all wagers against the spread are on MN and 90% of all money line wagers(straight up to win) are on the Gophers. Since Vegas isn't in the losing money business (see SF -7 vs Vikings for more on that) this could be bad news for our Gophers. I've been handicapping college football for almost a decade and this is one of the more perplexing lines I have seen in a while. How can a team that lost home games to Iowa St and Central Michigan be favored by 7-7.5 against a team that is 4-0 and seemingly getting better every week?

I think the answer lies in the Hawkeyes new found RB Mark Weisman. He gashed C Mich for 217 yards on 8yds/carry. Not impressed? LeVeon Bell considered to be one of the top backs in the country went for 70 yards on 18 carries for 3.9ypc against C Mich.

While the Gophers have had great success defending the pass we haven't defended the run very well at all. Through four games the Gophers are giving up an average of 5.16 yards/carry(taken from top 2 runners on each team) And this from teams that are pass first spread offenses.

On offense against Syracuse we struggled to get the ball in the endzone. NW and USC each put up 40+ and we managed only 17pts..and this with 4 turnovers from Syracuse. Our shakey FG kicking combined with penalties, injuries on the O-line, and Shortell's inexperience could be a problem in Iowa's hostile environment.

Given all this I think the oddsmakers are predicting a 9-10 pt Hawkeye win...something like 24-14. Of course every now and then Vegas is wrong! Let's hope they have underestimated Max Shortell and his band of no names on offense. Let's hope our defense learns how to stop the run just in time to #ProtectthePig!
Click to expand...

Great overview. I didn't realize central Mich had shut down Weisman. We need a big day from DCT today and to avoid a bunch of false starts. I am confident with the athletes we have as DBs that Claeys will stack the box.
 


Vaned berg is a good QB, if they could find a receiver he could be trouble today if we waaaay over play the run.
 

ncgo4 said:
Vaned berg is a good QB, if they could find a receiver he could be trouble today if we waaaay over play the run.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately this was a good call. We can't sell out completely for the run.
 

I've got a good chunk on the Gophers today. What did you expect, me to bet Iowa? lol.
 




So far vegas looking spot on, let's hope Shortell can rally the troops!
 



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