WEST
Serious contenders: Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota
Minor contenders: Iowa, Wisconsin
In one day, Wisconsin managed to shave off more than 1.5 expected wins; I honestly wouldn't have guessed that was possible. But that's what happens when you lose a game you're supposed to win and look bad enough doing it that you fall from 19th to 43rd in the rankings.
So if Wisconsin is no longer a top-20 team, then that opens up a crazy race. The Badgers might still bounce back and prove that last week's quarterback misery was a brief fluke, but if they don't, then any other West team not named Purdue or Illinois could take charge at some point soon.
This weekend's Minnesota-Northwestern game is a big one. As we'll see, Northwestern's advantage in this race is that the Wildcats already have two wins under their belt, and that their likely losses are closer to being tossups than Minnesota's are. The 2-0 start (with two wins over more highly-ranked teams, no less) is how NU has the overall edge here despite being the No. 4 team in the division in terms of F/+.
A loss in Minneapolis would get rid of a lot of the Wildcats' margin for error, though it wouldn't end their chances by any means. Meanwhile, Nebraska is a game behind in the loss column but is still in pretty good shape if/when Northwestern and Minnesota both lose. All three of those teams still have to play each other, so this new version of Northwestern will need to maintain form if it wants to reach the title game.
