Bill Connelly and the CFP committee

[Pompous Elitist]

They don’t take advanced stats into account. The CFP committee of (mostly) athletic directors, hot dog vendors, and tv sales guys is even worse than I thought.


Connelly:

It is decreed that the committee takes strength of schedule into account, but it doesn’t say how. It frowns on advanced analytics and gives no alternative guidance. So the committee goes with things like “wins over top-25 teams” and “assuring there’s no way in hell a team from a Group of 5 conference will get in.”

4. By now, though, some are figuring out how strength of schedule is taken into account.
ESPN’s stats team has created both forward- and backward-looking measures to assess the difference between the “best” teams and those determined most deserving of a title shot. As it turns out, the Strength of Record backward view — or judging your team by whom you’ve beaten, not by how good you are — is effective at mirroring committee action.

Despite the committee’s mantra of selecting the “four best teams in the country,” it appears that in the first two years of playoff selection, the committee favored team accomplishment over team strength. So if you are trying to predict what the committee will do, take a look at strength of record, because seven of eight teams to make the playoff ranked in the top four of that metric before playoff selection.
The committee insists it is looking for the “best” team. It is not. Kirby Hocutt, former chairman of the CFP committee, conflated “best” and “most deserving” on a number of occasions. An example:

Q: Are you looking for the four best teams or the four most-deserving teams? Is there a difference?

A: You have to take into account the entire season. The season doesn’t start in October. Everybody has 12 regular-season opportunities, and the committee is watching. At the end of the year, we want to make sure we have the four very best teams over the course of the entire season.
They do not. And that’s fine, I guess.


https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ll-2018-strength-of-schedule-week-12-rankings

 

[Some guy]

Most deserving and best are not close tot he same thing.


If you were going to say best, even an 8-4 Alabama team would be in the playoff this year.
If you were going to say best, I honestly think Ohio state at their best is better than everyone outside of Bama and Clemson.


Most deserving would include the four unbeatens IMO.





I think traditionalists would prefer most deserving over best.
I think people that understand confirmation bias would prefer most deserving over best.

 

[Dano564]

The issue with this committee and the NCAA selection committee for basketball is that this could easily be rectified with algorithms that would at least be consistent and still make sure a group of 5 team doesn't get in.

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

I have always been convinced that I could get several of my buddies that are all knowledgable about college football and do a better job than the committee has done in the past.

ESPN has too much influence over the committee and everything about the playoff.

Just the fact that Clemson is ranked higher at this point than Notre Dame tells me how incompetent the committee really is.

 

[Dano564]

I have always been convinced that I could get several of my buddies that are all knowledgable about college football and do a better job than the committee has done in the past.

ESPN has too much influence over the committee and everything about the playoff.

Well, you and your buddies would be more unbiased because of lack of financial benefits directly related to those on the committee. Toughest issue the committee has is trying to maintain the idea that it's an honest process.

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

Well, you and your buddies would be more unbiased because of lack of financial benefits directly related to those on the committee. Toughest issue the committee has is trying to maintain the idea that it's an honest process.

If only the committee and the country could also....Face The Facts.....Well done sir!

 

[GoGophersUMN]

I wish they'd drop the whole "best team" or "most deserving team" thing. It's pretty clear they pick the 4 teams that will maximize interest in the game that are still good enough they can make some argument, no matter how bad, that they deserve it.

As long as Alabama stays dominant, they will get in no matter what with 1 loss. Doesn't matter how bad it is or how poor their wins are. OSU doesn't get quite as much leeway but they always have a much easier path as a 1 loss team than just about anyone else.

I'm sure they're hoping for Georgia to beat Alabama so they can put both in and sell the potential rematch. That would upset the rest of the power 5 because there'd only be 1 spot for the other 4 conferences (assuming Notre Dame wins on Saturday). But that would also make an expansion to 6 or 8 teams happen sooner which I'm sure they'd love because it would mean more bowl games and more money.

 

[Goldmember]

A Go5 team will get in just as soon as they play 3-4 P5 opponents, beat them all, and win all of their conference games.

No one forced UCF to play FAU and SC State. They schedule these games to assure they stay unbeaten.