Big Ten Standings Corrected for Schedule

[illinoisgopher]

I did an analysis assuming that there are 6 teams under consideration (TUC) and what would the standing look like if these 6 won all their games remaining against teams not under consideration and won all their home games against TUC but lost all road games against TUC. So far this year the TUC are 26-3 for a 90% winning % against non TUC lending strong support to this assumption. Home TUC teams are 7-3 against TUC opponents for a 70% winning % lending some support to this assumption.

The results MSU wins the conference at 14-4 with Michigan, Indiana, OSU and Wisconsin at 13-5 and the Gophers at 12-6. Sixth place but clearly in the thick of the race. Winning at MSU or OSU while holding serve at home and against the bottom of the conference leads to a shot at winning the BIG ten.

The three TUC losses to bottom dwellers belong to MN at NW, OSU at ILL and Wis at Iowa.
The three TUC losss at home to other TUC are MN to Mich, Ind. to Wis and Wis to MSU.

Borrowing the +/- concept rewarding teams for road TUC wins and subtracting for home TUC losses and losses to non TUC teams gives us. Mich and MSU at +1. Indiana, OSU and Wisconsin at -1 and MN at -2.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I did an analysis assuming that there are 6 teams under consideration (TUC) and what would the standing look like if these 6 won all their games remaining against teams not under consideration and won all their home games against TUC but lost all road games against TUC. So far this year the TUC are 26-3 for a 90% winning % against non TUC lending strong support to this assumption. Home TUC teams are 7-3 against TUC opponents for a 70% winning % lending some support to this assumption.

The results MSU wins the conference at 14-4 with Michigan, Indiana, OSU and Wisconsin at 13-5 and the Gophers at 12-6. Sixth place but clearly in the thick of the race. Winning at MSU or OSU while holding serve at home and against the bottom of the conference leads to a shot at winning the BIG ten.

The three TUC losses to bottom dwellers belong to MN at NW, OSU at ILL and Wis at Iowa.
The three TUC losss at home to other TUC are MN to Mich, Ind. to Wis and Wis to MSU.
Borrowing the +/- concept rewarding teams for road TUC wins and subtracting for home TUC losses and losses to non TUC teams gives us. Mich and MSU at +1. Indiana and OSU at -1 and MN and Wisconsin at -2.

I don't think it bodes well for us or the skunks given that the two teams combine for 2/3 of the losses games that we are "supposed" to win.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I don't think it bodes well for us or the skunks given that the two teams combine for 2/3 of the losses games that we are "supposed" to win.

I would tend to agree with that. The Gophers and Badgers are capable of beating the B1G elite (we both have), but neither of us are elite. I'd bet the Gophers, especially, will have the most trouble with the non-TUC down the stretch because we're far from a shoo-in to protect our home court (win over MSU the exception). The Gophers only have 2 games left on the schedule where I look at and definitively say, "We're going to win that game". ... those are Penn State and @ Nebraska. So that gets us to 6 conference wins.

What I find strange is it seems quite a few folks just assume we'll beat the likes of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin at home. I expect the Gophers to win those games, but not at all do I assume we will. There's not a lot of difference between teams 5-8. Odds are the Gophers will get dumped in one of those, meaning they'll have to make it up somewhere else with a win or 2 (IU, @ Iowa, @ MSU, @ OSU)

 

[Gopher Warrior]

What I find strange is it seems quite a few folks just assume we'll beat the likes of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin at home. I expect the Gophers to win those games, but not at all do I assume we will. There's not a lot of difference between teams 5-8. Odds are the Gophers will get dumped in one of those, meaning they'll have to make it up somewhere else with a win or 2 (IU, @ Iowa, @ MSU, @ OSU)

I'm with you on this. Makes the Iowa game a little bit more interesting than it already is - you and I are probably both of the thought that "losing to Iowa on Sunday isn't the end of the world and reasonably happen..if it does, make it up elsewhere, Gophers will be at the halfway point of the B1G schedule"... but with the Spartans following that game, dropping to 4-5 (and especially if they dropped to 4-6) would probably make 'many' or 'most' fans get right back into ultra-negative mode. Big, big game from a fan-happiness standpoint.

 

[SelectionSunday]

". ...but with the Spartans following that game, dropping to 4-5 (and especially if they dropped to 4-6) would probably make 'many' or 'most' fans get right back into ultra-negative mode. Big, big game from a fan-happiness standpoint."

Agreed. I would very much prefer the Gophers not be sitting 4-5 at the halfway point, especially considering their 1st game of the second half is in East Lansing, and the fact that 5 of the final 9 will be on the road. 4-5 at mid-point means the Gophers would need to go 6-3 just to finish above .500, and I think 6-3 is about the optimal with the schedule we have left (after Iowa).

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I'm with you on this. Makes the Iowa game a little bit more interesting than it already is - you and I are probably both of the thought that "losing to Iowa on Sunday isn't the end of the world and reasonably happen..if it does, make it up elsewhere, Gophers will be at the halfway point of the B1G schedule"... but with the Spartans following that game, dropping to 4-5 (and especially if they dropped to 4-6) would probably make 'many' or 'most' fans get right back into ultra-negative mode. Big, big game from a fan-happiness standpoint.

I don't think its fair to call it purely a fan-happiness thing. I really do think this one is crucial for our season. A home loss to Iowa, standing on its own, would not be catastrophic to the team. But, a home loss to Iowa to put us on a 1-5 slide would be pretty terrible for the team. When you are on a skid and in a tough part of your schedule, you need to find a way to get the ones you should have and steal at least one you shouldn't. During the last 5 games, we won our second easiest game of the conference schedule, lost to a horrendous NU team, dropped a forgiveable one (at least forgiveable if taken alone not coming off fo back to back losses), and lost two games against elite competition which few teams would win, but we failed to steal the upset either time.

If we come out of Sunday with a loss, then we have gone through a 6 game stretch where we went 0-2 in games we shouldn't have won, 0-1 in games we should expect to be competetive in, and 1-2 in games that we should have won. I just don't see a team wetting the bed that badly, but then being able to flip a switch and win all of the ones the should, all of the competetive ones, and steal a big upset or two. That said, I think rolling over Husker High earlier this week reenergized the team, and I do not expect a loss to Iowa. I think we play well the rest of the way out and get ourselves above the .500 hump this year.

 

[tjgopher]

Agreed. I would very much prefer the Gophers not be sitting 4-5 at the halfway point, especially considering their 1st game of the second half is in East Lansing, and the fact that 5 of the final 9 will be on the road. 4-5 at mid-point means the Gophers would need to go 6-3 just to finish above .500, and I think 6-3 is about the optimal with the schedule we have left (after Iowa).

Not to mention, if Iowa upsets us on Sunday, both the Gophers and Hawkeyes are 4-5. Iowa (with a win) gains a "quality road win" and has a significantly easier schedule down the stretch and could end up ahead of us and into the TUC category. Rembember, Iowa started with a tough schedule, but has a cakewalk starting after their road games with us and WIS. After that, they play only two TUC (both home). IA could win 7 of their last 8 games (certainly will be favored in 6 of them). If they win Sunday's road game, they have to be targeting 9 or 10 league wins.

But, if we beat them on Sunday, then they are 3-6 and have an uphill fight, while we are back over .500 at 5-4.

Mighty important game for both teams.

 

[scools12]

What I find strange is it seems quite a few folks just assume we'll beat the likes of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin at home. I expect the Gophers to win those games, but not at all do I assume we will. There's not a lot of difference between teams 5-8. Odds are the Gophers will get dumped in one of those, meaning they'll have to make it up somewhere else with a win or 2 (IU, @ Iowa, @ MSU, @ OSU)

Those 3 games are big for the Gophers. Going 1-2 against Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin at home would make things tough in getting a 9th conference win.

 

[bga1]

I would tend to agree with that. The Gophers and Badgers are capable of beating the B1G elite (we both have), but neither of us are elite. I'd bet the Gophers, especially, will have the most trouble with the non-TUC down the stretch because we're far from a shoo-in to protect our home court (win over MSU the exception). The Gophers only have 2 games left on the schedule where I look at and definitively say, "We're going to win that game". ... those are Penn State and @ Nebraska. So that gets us to 6 conference wins.

What I find strange is it seems quite a few folks just assume we'll beat the likes of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin at home. I expect the Gophers to win those games, but not at all do I assume we will. There's not a lot of difference between teams 5-8. Odds are the Gophers will get dumped in one of those, meaning they'll have to make it up somewhere else with a win or 2 (IU, @ Iowa, @ MSU, @ OSU)

Yup- the problem is that they already have a BAD loss at NW to make up for. With MSU following the Iowa game, the Iowa game looks like a must win to me. I think if we win Iowa then we walk into MSU looking at it as a bonus game - nothing to lose just go out and play hard. I think under those circumstances we have a decent chance to win there. If we lose to Iowa we will walk into MSU tight as a drum and much more likely to lose IMO. Going to 4-6 with Ill and Wisky coming up next would be a bad situation.

 

[howeda7]

Iowa is not terrible, but this is still one of the 4 easiest B1G games on the schedule. It is basically a 'must-win' given the loss at NW.

 

[illinoisgopher]

I do think I would classify Iowa as the best of the rest even over Illinois at this point. I can't figure out how Illinois fell off. I guess just shoot a ton of threes and get hot at the right time and you get wins over Butler and Gonzaga. I am not to worried about at home against Iowa and if we lose I would think you could make a case we shouldn't be grouped with the top teams even if it is now just at the fringe. I am worried about at Iowa based on the win against Wisconsin and close calls to MSU and Ind. I think if we lose and I was to redo this analysis I might create a mid group of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Why regroup Wisconsin you ask. Screw them thats why. Seriously tho their non conference and loss at Iowa does seperate them from the other top teams.

Interestingly MN has the worst loss and the best loss. Having the easy schedule down the stretch leaves little upside based on this analysis only 2 should lose games while leaving plenty of room to underperform by losing to Indiana or Iowa or at Purdue.

 

[Monty519]

I consider all home games "must-win", honestly. I mean, if you wanna be anything in this conference, you can't go around dropping home games against equal or lesser opponents. I said before the year, we'd need a 8-1 type home record to do damage in the league. We took that L against Michigan, so now they can't drop any more. That's just how I saw it. Win the rest at home, and then you gotta find a way to grab 3 more road games somewhere (Iowa, Neb, and Purdue seem like the best candidates) to get to 12-6. With the loss at NW, it put even more pressure on taking care of home so you don't have to get a win @MSU or OSU to get there.

I understand things look down after the last couple weeks, but this is still the same team that mustered up a big home win against MSU and won @ Illinois when they were actually still confident and winning. It's not like they're not capable of doing this. They just gotta find that confidence and groove again.

 

[station19]

Those 3 games are big for the Gophers. Going 1-2 against Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin at home would make things tough in getting a 9th conference win.

If we lose any of those three games I might have to resign from being a Tubby apologist.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

Very much a must win for us. I hope we beat them so badly that neither team has any doubt in their mind that we will crush that at Carver as well.

 

[GophersInIowa]

I think we should go at least 4-1 in the remaining five games. We'll be favored in all of them except Indiana. We then go 3-2 on the road (lose at Ohio St. and Michigan St.), and we'll be 11-7 at the end. I think 11 wins is the over/under right now. A few unexpected wins and we're fighting for a chance at the conference title. Lose a few unexpectedly and we're fighting just to get in the tourney.

 

[EG#9]

I would tend to agree with that. The Gophers and Badgers are capable of beating the B1G elite (we both have), but neither of us are elite. I'd bet the Gophers, especially, will have the most trouble with the non-TUC down the stretch because we're far from a shoo-in to protect our home court (win over MSU the exception). The Gophers only have 2 games left on the schedule where I look at and definitively say, "We're going to win that game". ... those are Penn State and @ Nebraska. So that gets us to 6 conference wins.

What I find strange is it seems quite a few folks just assume we'll beat the likes of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin at home. I expect the Gophers to win those games, but not at all do I assume we will. There's not a lot of difference between teams 5-8. Odds are the Gophers will get dumped in one of those, meaning they'll have to make it up somewhere else with a win or 2 (IU, @ Iowa, @ MSU, @ OSU)

The Gophers should absolutely beat Iowa at home, a loss would be inexcusable at this point. I agree that they might lose to Wisconsin (or Illinois if they get hot from distance), but they'd have to play as bad as they did against Northwestern to lose to Iowa. Really, all 3 games should be lock wins for Tubby Smith in year 6 with 2 of his top 4 playing their senior years.

 

[tjgopher]

The Gophers should absolutely beat Iowa at home, a loss would be inexcusable at this point. I agree that they might lose to Wisconsin (or Illinois if they get hot from distance), but they'd have to play as bad as they did against Northwestern to lose to Iowa. Really, all 3 games should be lock wins for Tubby Smith in year 6 with 2 of his top 4 playing their senior years.

I agree, we should beat Iowa, but I think you underestimate Iowa. They beat Wisconsin (led by 20 at one point). They beat Northwestern at Northwestern by 20. They have played one of the most difficult conference schedules up to this point. That schedule gets significantly easier for them after their next two games. At a minimum, they should be a fringe NCAA bubble team by the time it is all said and done. I don't think the same can be said for Illinois, who has a tougher schedule ahead.

If we play against Iowa like we did at Northwestern, we will lose by 15+ on our floor.

 

[Johnnyboy18]

I agree, we should beat Iowa, but I think you underestimate Iowa. They beat Wisconsin (led by 20 at one point). They beat Northwestern at Northwestern by 20. They have played one of the most difficult conference schedules up to this point. That schedule gets significantly easier for them after their next two games. At a minimum, they should be a fringe NCAA bubble team by the time it is all said and done. I don't think the same can be said for Illinois, who has a tougher schedule ahead.

If we play against Iowa like we did at Northwestern, we will lose by 15+ on our floor.

Iowa doesn't match up well against the Gophers. Another problem Iowa has is they can't shoot the only way you beat the Gophers is if you have more talent or can shoot.

 

[XMan]

I'm with you on this. Makes the Iowa game a little bit more interesting than it already is - you and I are probably both of the thought that "losing to Iowa on Sunday isn't the end of the world and reasonably happen..if it does, make it up elsewhere, Gophers will be at the halfway point of the B1G schedule"... but with the Spartans following that game, dropping to 4-5 (and especially if they dropped to 4-6) would probably make 'many' or 'most' fans get right back into ultra-negative mode. Big, big game from a fan-happiness standpoint.

So true. The Gophers can not to Iowa at home.....just like they had to beat Nebraska last week. Beat Iowa and lose to MSU on the road and we will be ok. But we can't fall to 4-6.

 

[station19]

I think we should go at least 4-1 in the remaining five games. We'll be favored in all of them except Indiana. We then go 3-2 on the road (lose at Ohio St. and Michigan St.), and we'll be 11-7 at the end. I think 11 wins is the over/under right now. A few unexpected wins and we're fighting for a chance at the conference title. Lose a few unexpectedly and we're fighting just to get in the tourney.

Spot on, although the chance of a conference title at this point is out the window.

 

[Cayman]

I agree, we should beat Iowa, but I think you underestimate Iowa. They beat Wisconsin (led by 20 at one point). They beat Northwestern at Northwestern by 20. They have played one of the most difficult conference schedules up to this point. That schedule gets significantly easier for them after their next two games. At a minimum, they should be a fringe NCAA bubble team by the time it is all said and done. I don't think the same can be said for Illinois, who has a tougher schedule ahead.

If we play against Iowa like we did at Northwestern, we will lose by 15+ on our floor.

+1 Iowa is not a scrub team. Two or three weeks ago, I would have said they had a better shot at making the tournament than Wisconsin did. As pointed out, they beat Northwestern by 20 in Evanston, and they have single digit losses against Indiana and Michigan State at home and @ Ohio State and @ Purdue (OT). They have played competitively at home at least against some of the better teams in the Big Ten. We will probably not roll over them like we did against Nebraska, but obviously it would be a good sign for us if we did. I expect a win, but not a blowout.

 

[#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat]

We are better than Iowa, but not much better. Its a home game for us, so those 2 things considered, combined with our players probably feeling better about themselves after the game with Nebraska, I'd say if there is a chance for the Gophers to get a #1, #2 or #3 seed in the NCAA, then a win over Iowa is an absolute requirement. Now if all the Gophers are trying to do is get into the tourney, then they "could" afford a loss to Iowa, but it would make things very tough for them. Only a bounce back upset of MSU or an upset of OSU would make up for such a loss. Right now I think that IU is the only home game we could get away with losing without needing a huge upset make up win.

 

[station19]

We are better than Iowa, but not much better. Its a home game for us, so those 2 things considered, combined with our players probably feeling better about themselves after the game with Nebraska, I'd say if there is a chance for the Gophers to get a #1, #2 or #3 seed in the NCAA, then a win over Iowa is an absolute requirement. Now if all the Gophers are trying to do is get into the tourney, then they "could" afford a loss to Iowa, but it would make things very tough for them. Only a bounce back upset of MSU or an upset of OSU would make up for such a loss. Right now I think that IU is the only home game we could get away with losing without needing a huge upset make up win.

It would also be a bad signal.

The Gophs will be underdogs in games against Indiana, @MSU and @OSU. Loses in those three, coupled with a loss to Iowa would make best case scenario 10-8. Another loss or two would mean 9-9 or worse.

The Iowa game is huge. Need to clean up against Iowa, Neb, PSU and Purdue.

Home games with Illinois and Wisconsin could be tough also.