Big Ten games

[MrGopher]

Let's talk about Big Ten games.

We own a 331-352-28 record all time in the Big Ten. That's 21 games under .500

How long do you think it will be before we reach .500 again?

Ten years? Thats an average of just above a 5-3 Big Ten record for the next ten years.

Seeing as we got rid of our last coach because of perpetual mediocrity, I would assume that at least a 5-3 average is the goal for the football program? Right?

What do people see happening? Will it take over 10 years? Under 10 years?

 

[MRJ]

When will we get to over .500 in Big Ten play overall? That's a tough one to answer. Too many as yet undetermined factors that play into it at this point.

I guess that could serve as Wren's cue........

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

Here is our conference record for various time periods of the Gophers:

Last year: 3-5 (.375)
The past ten years (99-08): 32-48 (.400)
Mason's tenure (97-06): 32-48 (.400)
The ten years prior to Mason (87-96): 21-57-2 (.275)
The 40+ years since our last conference championship in 1967: 121-206-4 (.372)

Based on these numbers, I would say that Mason set the new "floor" to our expectations; which is .400 in conference play (this would be alternating between 3 and 4 win seasons).

Brewster still needs two years (in my opinion) to get "his" players on the field playing with his mindset/philiosophy. In these next two years, we will need to get a combined total of at least 7 conference wins (resulting in a 10-14 record over a 3 year period or .417) to slightly exceed the standard that Mason established as the minimum.

I'm not saying that a 10-14 conference record for '08, 09 and 10 would make me thrilled, but it should be enough to give Brewster a shot at 2 or 3 more years to take us to the "next level" which, in my mind, is consistently playing at .500 or better.

Iowa and Wisconsin have .543 and .536 conference records since 1990. They are our "peers" and we should strive to be playing at a similar level consistently.

Go Gophers.
------------------------
edit: thses stats come from the Sports Link Network Database (http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cfbtrivia/teamsearch.php)
which is a fantastic site for researching past performance BUT for some inexplicable reason, it does not include the Gophers 2000 season in which we wnt 4-4 in the Big Ten; as a result, some of my figures are a bit off, but the point remains the same.

 

[Maverick]

Here is our conference record for various time periods of the Gophers:

Last year: 3-5 (.375)
The past ten years (99-08): 32-48 (.400)
Mason's tenure (97-06): 32-48 (.400)
The ten years prior to Mason (87-96): 21-57-2 (.275)
The 40+ years since our last conference championship in 1967: 121-206-4 (.372)

Based on these numbers, I would say that Mason set the new "floor" to our expectations; which is .400 in conference play (this would be alternating between 3 and 4 win seasons).

Brewster still needs two years (in my opinion) to get "his" players on the field playing with his mindset/philiosophy. In these next two years, we will need to get a combined total of at least 7 conference wins (resulting in a 10-14 record over a 3 year period or .417) to slightly exceed the standard that Mason established as the minimum.

I'm not saying that a 10-14 conference record for '08, 09 and 10 would make me thrilled, but it should be enough to give Brewster a shot at 2 or 3 more years to take us to the "next level" which, in my mind, is consistently playing at .500 or better.

Iowa and Wisconsin have .543 and .536 conference records since 1990. They are our "peers" and we should strive to be playing at a similar level consistently.

Go Gophers.

Excellent analogy. I concur wholeheartedly!

Go Gophers!!

 

[pharmacygopher]

Here is our conference record for various time periods of the Gophers:

Last year: 3-5 (.375)
The past ten years (99-08): 32-48 (.400)
Mason's tenure (97-06): 32-48 (.400)
The ten years prior to Mason (87-96): 21-57-2 (.275)
The 40+ years since our last conference championship in 1967: 121-206-4 (.372)

Based on these numbers, I would say that Mason set the new "floor" to our expectations; which is .400 in conference play (this would be alternating between 3 and 4 win seasons).

Brewster still needs two years (in my opinion) to get "his" players on the field playing with his mindset/philiosophy. In these next two years, we will need to get a combined total of at least 7 conference wins (resulting in a 10-14 record over a 3 year period or .417) to slightly exceed the standard that Mason established as the minimum.

I'm not saying that a 10-14 conference record for '08, 09 and 10 would make me thrilled, but it should be enough to give Brewster a shot at 2 or 3 more years to take us to the "next level" which, in my mind, is consistently playing at .500 or better.

Iowa and Wisconsin have .543 and .536 conference records since 1990. They are our "peers" and we should strive to be playing at a similar level consistently.

Go Gophers.

There is just way too much logic in that post! Get that out of here! Kidding, of course. I like it. Couldn't have put it better myself.

 

[dpodoll68]

Let's talk about Big Ten games.

We own a 331-352-28 record all time in the Big Ten. That's 21 games under .500

How long do you think it will be before we reach .500 again?

Ten years? Thats an average of just above a 5-3 Big Ten record for the next ten years.

Seeing as we got rid of our last coach because of perpetual mediocrity, I would assume that at least a 5-3 average is the goal for the football program? Right?

What do people see happening? Will it take over 10 years? Under 10 years?

I remember someone a little while back posting info about conference records over the past few seasons, but the point that stuck with me is that maintaining even a 5-3 average over 10 years is inordinately difficult to do. Without the commensurate research, I'd guess that OSU is the only team to have done that over the past decade. Even a team that's had the decade they've had is 60-20, thus an average of 6-2. And that's factoring in that they've only had 3 conference losses combined over the last 4 seasons.

Expecting an average conference record of 5-3 over a 10-year span is just not fair for any Big Ten team. It is too difficult to maintain that level of excellence consistently over that extended of a time frame.

The better question is, will the Gophers ever get back above .500 in the conference? We all hope so, and would like to think so. But one thing is for certain: if it ever does happen, it will take far longer than 10 years.

 

[harrys ghost]

I remember someone a little while back posting info about conference records over the past few seasons, but the point that stuck with me is that maintaining even a 5-3 average over 10 years is inordinately difficult to do. Without the commensurate research, I'd guess that OSU is the only team to have done that over the past decade. Even a team that's had the decade they've had is 60-20, thus an average of 6-2. And that's factoring in that they've only had 3 conference losses combined over the last 4 seasons.

Expecting an average conference record of 5-3 over a 10-year span is just not fair for any Big Ten team. It is too difficult to maintain that level of excellence consistently over that extended of a time frame.

The better question is, will the Gophers ever get back above .500 in the conference? We all hope so, and would like to think so. But one thing is for certain: if it ever does happen, it will take far longer than 10 years.

Wisconsin averaged 5.3 wins a year over the last ten years.

 

[metrolax]

Wisconsin also had a home field, as well as a bigger budget.

Give Minnesota time with a home field, something that it has not
enjoyed since 1981, and let the budget get back up to
at least middle of the pack in the Big Ten. I think you'll
see improvement.

In 1969, Minnesota's record was equal to Ohio State and Michigan
in terms of overall football historical performance. While they
still enjoyed the Brickhouse for a decade more, the budget for
football was pathetic compared to its peers.

 

[harrys ghost]

I remember someone a little while back posting info about conference records over the past few seasons, but the point that stuck with me is that maintaining even a 5-3 average over 10 years is inordinately difficult to do. Without the commensurate research, I'd guess that OSU is the only team to have done that over the past decade. Even a team that's had the decade they've had is 60-20, thus an average of 6-2. And that's factoring in that they've only had 3 conference losses combined over the last 4 seasons.

Expecting an average conference record of 5-3 over a 10-year span is just not fair for any Big Ten team. It is too difficult to maintain that level of excellence consistently over that extended of a time frame.

The better question is, will the Gophers ever get back above .500 in the conference? We all hope so, and would like to think so. But one thing is for certain: if it ever does happen, it will take far longer than 10 years.

Jim Tressel has been at OSU for 8 years and is averaging 6.5 wins per season. Carr was at Michigan for 13 years, averaging 6.2 wins per year and got fired for it. The last ten years at Penn State, Paterno has averaged 4.4 wins per year.

I would think a minimum target of 5 wins per year is reasonable for any programs with serious aspirations.

 

[dpodoll68]

Wisconsin averaged 5.3 wins a year over the last ten years.

Actually, it was 4.6.

Jim Tressel has been at OSU for 8 years and is averaging 6.5 wins per season. Carr was at Michigan for 13 years, averaging 6.2 wins per year and got fired for it. The last ten years at Penn State, Paterno has averaged 4.4 wins per year.

I don't know where you're getting your stats, but they're wrong (with the exception of PSU).

Thanks to the great site that GGR provided above (thanks for that, btw!), here are the Big Ten Conference records over the last 10 years:

OSU 60-20
Mich 58-22
Wisc 46-34
PSU 44-36
Iowa 43-37
Purd 41-39
MSU 34-46
NU 34-46
Minn 32-48
Illi 28-52
Indy 20-60

So, exactly two teams have achieved this mythical "5-3 expectation" over the last 10 years (two of the top five teams historically in college football, might I add), and we're supposed to expect the Gophers, a team that hasn't won the conference in 40+ years, to do so? Please.

And since when was Lloyd Carr fired?

I would think a minimum target of 5 wins per year is reasonable for any programs with serious aspirations.

Achieving a conference winning percentage of 63% over a ten-year period is a fine goal for those of the USC, Texas, Florida, OSU, Michigan, etc. ilk. But it's not reasonable for teams that aren't traditional powerhouses.

 

[harrys ghost]

Actually, it was 4.6.



I don't know where you're getting your stats, but they're wrong (with the exception of PSU).

Thanks to the great site that GGR provided above (thanks for that, btw!), here are the Big Ten Conference records over the last 10 years:

OSU 60-20
Mich 58-22
Wisc 46-34
PSU 44-36
Iowa 43-37
Purd 41-39
MSU 34-46
NU 34-46
Minn 32-48
Illi 28-52
Indy 20-60

So, exactly two teams have achieved this mythical "5-3 expectation" over the last 10 years (two of the top five teams historically in college football, might I add), and we're supposed to expect the Gophers, a team that hasn't won the conference in 40+ years, to do so? Please.

And since when was Lloyd Carr fired?



Achieving a conference winning percentage of 63% over a ten-year period is a fine goal for those of the USC, Texas, Florida, OSU, Michigan, etc. ilk. But it's not reasonable for teams that aren't traditional powerhouses.

You're right about Wisconsin, I included 1998's record. My bad. Lloyd Carr's 13 year conference record at Michigan was 81-23. Jim Tressel has only been at Ohio Start for eight years. In those eight years, his conference record is 52-12.

The only way to become a "traditional powerhouse" is to set expectations higher -- otherwise we should have just kept Mason.

 

[dpodoll68]

You're right about Wisconsin, I included 1998's record. My bad. Lloyd Carr's 13 year conference record at Michigan was 81-23. Jim Tressel has only been at Ohio Start for eight years. In those eight years, his conference record is 52-12.

The only way to become a "traditional powerhouse" is to set expectations higher -- otherwise we should have just kept Mason.

I agree that we should have higher expectations. But how is it realistic to expect something that only 2 out of 11 teams have done over the last decade? It's simply not.

Also, please enlighten me as to Lloyd Carr's "firing".

 

[harrys ghost]

Barry Alvarez was the coach at Wisconsin for 16 years. If we excuse his first three years, he averaged 4.6 BT wins (baring math errors ) over 13 years (60-41-3). His year-to-year was pretty rocky but IMO, he was close to 5 wins per year. I still think that is a reasonable target.

 

[harrys ghost]

Also, please enlighten me as to Lloyd Carr's "firing".

He retired. I guess I am just being cynical as he was under more than a little pressure from the fan base.

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

It is extremely difficult to produce 5+ Big Ten wins. In the past ten years, the only teams to do that have been OSU at 6.0 and Michigan at 5.8. In the past five years. OSU, PSU, Wisconsin and Michigan have exceeded the mark.

In the past ten seasons, JoPA is 4.4, Ferentz 4.3 and Tiller 4.0. Alvarez averaged 4.4 in his last 7seasons.

I think the key is being in a position to win the BT on the last Saturday in November. That would generate a ton of interest that would likely have a carry-over. But our Gophers haven't done that in eons so its difficult to know how the fans would respond.

After the glitter of the new digs wears off, the Gophers will be hard challenged to fill the stadium unless Brewster can somehow, as Maverick stated, produce a consistent winner.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

From my post to the stadium capacity thread by Bronko._

___

 

[dpodoll68]

Barry Alvarez was the coach at Wisconsin for 16 years. If we excuse his first three years, he averaged 4.6 BT wins (baring math errors ) over 13 years (60-41-3). His year-to-year was pretty rocky but IMO, he was close to 5 wins per year. I still think that is a reasonable target.

"If." Neither coaches nor ADs have the luxury of dealing in hypotheticals. "If" we got rid of the last five games last year, Brewster went 7-1. I like that style of reckoning.

By your logic, every coach in the Big Ten except Big Daddy Sweater Vest would be fired by now.

Also, 4.6 < 5.

 

[MrGopher]

dpodoll68, the original question was 'what is the goal for the football program?' Nobody truly expects this of the gophers at this point. I have learned that expecting anything in college football is very dangerous.

We dropped mason because we were no better than mediocre, right? That means the football program is looking to be better than mediocre. That, to me, means regular contention for the Big Ten Title. And contending for the big ten title regularly means winning most of the big ten games we play (i.e. the 5-3 record).

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

dpodoll68, the original question was 'what is the goal for the football program?' Nobody truly expects this of the gophers at this point. I have learned that expecting anything in college football is very dangerous.

We dropped mason because we were no better than mediocre, right? That means the football program is looking to be better than mediocre. That, to me, means regular contention for the Big Ten Title. And contending for the big ten title regularly means winning most of the big ten games we play (i.e. the 5-3 record).

When Brewster was hired, the UM suits declared that they now have higher expectations for the football team. Terms like "more competitive", "successful" and even "Rose Bowl" were mentioned, among others. I wish I would have copied the news articles at the time.

So what does that all mean? And what is reasonable? The Gophers have been in the bottom third of the Big Ten for years, if not decades. I would guess that every Big Ten team would like to finish with at least 5 BT wins each year. Very few have done it. And expecting the Gophers to do that in the next ten years is a huge task and not very likely.

My hope is that the team can be in contention for a BT title on the last Saturday in November in the next 4 years. The rest seems light years away.

 

[dpodoll68]

And contending for the big ten title regularly means winning most of the big ten games we play (i.e. the 5-3 record).

Actually, that's not what it means. That seems to be the whole disconnect here. Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, and Penn State have all won Big Ten titles in the last decade, while none are averaging close to 5 wins per season. They all won by having a good year or two, contending some years, and being poor-to-horrible other years.

If you say winning 5 Big Ten games here and there, that's one thing. But you and harrysghost seem to think that doing so, on average, is something that's relatively easy to do, when statistical evidence bears out the fact that it is not.

The goal should be going .500 on a routine basis, something that 6 teams have done over the past 10 years. If you can do that, you're going to be in contention for 1 or 2 Big Ten titles every decade or so, something that all 6 of those teams can say.

 

[GopherGod]

Actually, that's not what it means. That seems to be the whole disconnect here. Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, and Penn State have all won Big Ten titles in the last decade, while none are averaging close to 5 wins per season. They all won by having a good year or two, contending some years, and being poor-to-horrible other years.

If you say winning 5 Big Ten games here and there, that's one thing. But you and harrysghost seem to think that doing so, on average, is something that's relatively easy to do, when statistical evidence bears out the fact that it is not.

The goal should be going .500 on a routine basis, something that 6 teams have done over the past 10 years. If you can do that, you're going to be in contention for 1 or 2 Big Ten titles every decade or so, something that all 6 of those teams can say.

Wow, we are really setting the bar high aren't we hoping to to finish .500 in your conference and then go and get smoked in a BCS game. Trust me the USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida programs etc. would not except .500 in conference and neither should we if we truly want to be an elite program someday.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

I think I agree with dpodoll68.

I think the expectation is that we consistently have a conference winning percentage of .425 to .575.

With that will come some great years when we have a .750 or .875 season (6 or 7 BT wins) as well as some disappointing years where we end up with a .250 to .375 (2 or 3 BT wins).

Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern have all won Big Ten titles in this decade without winning 5 games (or even 2, 3 or 4) every season.

Goal #1 should be winning the Big Ten. Winning it outright with a 7 or 8 win conference season would be tremendous, but winning it ugly with 6 wins would be just fine too.

 

[dpodoll68]

Wow, we are really setting the bar high aren't we hoping to to finish .500 in your conference and then go and get smoked in a BCS game. Trust me the USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida programs etc. would not except .500 in conference and neither should we if we truly want to be an elite program someday.

Jesus Christ man, your reading comprehension is poor. I said earlier in this thread that that level of program is the kind that shoots for 5-3 type records every season.

When we get to the point where we can go .500 every year, then I'd say averaging 5-3 is a realistic goal. When we're as good as USC, Texas, et al, then we won't "except" .500 either.

I find it laughable that you place Minnesota anywhere even remotely in the neighborhood of approximating anything even resembling the aforementioned programs.

Think of it this way. Imagine us losing to OSU, PSU, and MSU this season, and beating NU, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Now, imagine replicating that every year for the next 9 years.

Hell, I'd be glad if we won 5 Big Ten games once, let alone averaging that for an entire decade.

 

[GopherGod]

Jesus Christ man, your reading comprehension is poor. I said earlier in this thread that that level of program is the kind that shoots for 5-3 type records every season.

When we get to the point where we can go .500 every year, then I'd say averaging 5-3 is a realistic goal. When we're as good as USC, Texas, et al, then we won't "except" .500 either.

I find it laughable that you place Minnesota anywhere even remotely in the neighborhood of approximating anything even resembling the aforementioned programs.

Think of it this way. Imagine us losing to OSU, PSU, and MSU this season, and beating NU, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Now, imagine replicating that every year for the next 9 years.

Hell, I'd be glad if we won 5 Big Ten games once, let alone averaging that for an entire decade.

Point taken, maybe I misinterpreted your posts and meaning. I just get frustrated at times with the low expectations that many seem to have for the program which in turn leads to poor fan support.

 

[Schnoodler]

don't confuse low expectations with the understanding that between here and there there are points between worth attaining. the elephant doesn't dissappear in one bite.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

don't confuse low expectations with the understanding that between here and there there are points between worth attaining. the elephant doesn't dissappear in one bite.

Agree 100%.

A realistic goal would be to get into a better bowl in '09 or '10 (preferably both years) than in year's past. This would mean going to the Alamo Bowl, Outback Bowl or Capitol One Bowl. The Insight Bowl is the equivalent of the Music City Bowl (but without widely available TV viewing) and the Champs Sports Bowl is the equivalent of the Sun Bowl (except its a better location with a lesser history). Been there, done that.

So, my hope (within the confines of reality) is Alamo, Outback or Capitol one within two years; we've been close to these before ('99, '03 and 8 games into last season), lets get over that hump first.

Go Gophers!