Big 12-Pac 10 Challenge

[coolhandgopher]

What happens when perhaps the best major conference takes on what seems indisputably the worst major conference in head to head matchups? A major league beatdown. Sure, there are two games left to finish off the Challenge (Oklahoma State @ Stanford on Dec. 16 and Texas A&M @ Washington on Dec. 22, I think; it's a goofy setup for this Challenge, with dates spread out), but for all intents and purposes, it's over. Some of the carnage:
Big 12: 8 wins
Pac 10: 2 wins

Points scored in 10 games
Big 12: 759
Pac 10: 668

Texas Tech, currently undefeated but coming off a season where they finished 3-13 in conference play, defeated the prohibitive Pac 10 favorite Washington, 99-92.

Missouri was supposed to be regrouping this season while Oregon was a sly pick for some as a sleeper this year. Score? Mizzou 106, Oregon 69

The two wins gained by the Pac 10 were Cal's (predicted second place finish) defeat of Iowa State (predicted lower half of Big 12) and Oregon State (predicted middle of the pack) over Colorado (last place prediction).

In the Big 12 wins, only three games were decided in the single digits-the Texas Tech win, Baylor's victory over Arizona St. (64-61), and Nebraska's win over USC (51-48).

We'll all aware of UCLA's issues this season, Arizona's rebuilding campaign under Sean Miller, and the mess Kevin O'Neill was left with at USC. It seemed into this vacuum might step two sleepers, Arizona State and Washington State, who had won the Great Alaska Shootout. I already mentioned ASU's loss to Baylor and Washington St. got destroyed by Kansas State.

The best non-conference wins for the conference thus far? Take your pick from Washington State's win over San Diego, ASU's defeat of LSU, or Cal's conquest of Iowa State. In fact, the Pac 10's most impressive non-conference performance might be Stanford pushing Kentucky to OT before losing.

What chances still exist for quality wins before conference play begins? Washington takes on Georgetown and Texas A&M; ASU visits BYU; Cal travels to Kansas; Stanford has Oklahoma State and Northwestern on the docket; and UCLA competes against Mississippi State and Notre Dame. Except for the Washington games, I would think any other win by those Pac 10 teams would be considered an upset at this point.

What am I getting at? I'm going to predict that the Pac 10 only earns one berth for the NCAA tournament this season, unless Washington gets upset in the Pac 10 tourney and then they get two teams. Might seem unlikely, but we are seeing a historically bad representation of a major conference this season (just two seasons removed when many argued the Pac 10 was the country's finest conference). And I thought the SEC was bad last year, the Pac 10 is blowing them out of the water for sheer major conference ineptitude.

 

[howeda7]

I'll be shocked if they get 4, but 1 is a bit of an exaggeration. Keep in mind that the decent teams will get to rack up huge #'s of conference wins. At minimum, I think Washingtonand Cal will make it and maybe Washington State.

 

[Saber]

Cal has been pretty unimpressive so far, they're having a somewhat similar season to the Gophers, though for different reasons... both teams have a lot of work to do. Fortunately, the Pac 10 is a cakewalk this year, unlike the Big 10.

I wouldn't be surprised to see just the 2 Washington schools go dancing, but I'd guess the final number is 3. It's amazing given the sheer geographical and demographical area that the Pac 10 encompasses, there's not enough talent to put more teams dancing this year. Part of it is that the WCC has been getting stronger, and part of it is that the overall coaching talent in the Pac 10 doesn't compare with that of some other conferences, so more kids are going east...

But there's really no good excuse. I'm just glad that the Big 10's days as a weak conference are over, and we're back into the form we were at back in the 80s and 90s.

 

[coolhandgopher]

I am probably exaggerating, I'm sure at least two teams will go, but I'm curious. . .even if Cal or WSU rack up wins in-conference, does the overall poor non-conference performance of the league (last week the Pac 10 was way down the RPI conference rankings and I can't imagine it improving after this week) count against them? It'll be a very interesting evaluation of a mid-major level of performance (as a conference) versus the big conference name.

 

[Holy Man]

Conference Ups and Downs

While the BT has gone through some soft periods, nothing we have experienced can compare to the doldrums of the Pac 10 this year.

We have much to critique about conferences, but I think what keeps conferences up is the power teams at the top. The rest of the league will be terrible, but two teams at the top keep the reputation alive. See the ACC. They went several years where outside of the Big Two, they were a terrible league, yet somehow never lost their reputation, because they could squeeze a team into the Final Four. When they got penalized one year with only three teams in (deserved), they protest because they are so good.

The same thing can said of the SEC. While Florida and Kentucky, and to a lesser extent Tenessee, were going strong, the reputation stays there. The top two drop, and the world realizes how bad the league really is.

I suppose it shows on the floor that it is very difficult to keep teams competitive in the revolving door of players on high level D-1 basketball. If you have the rep to keep bringing in top five recruting classes every year, a program might avoid that pitfall, but I think there are very few in the country that can make that happen. NC, Kansas, Kentucky, maybe Michigan State and and a few others can keep the players coming and stay on top (and keep their leagues there, too), but very few can. If UCLA can't do it, how do we expect the middling BCS programs to do it?

Another angle to that is that with so many programs changing players so often, the early year games make even the msot talented teams vulnerable to teams that have consistent rosters. While the Pac 10 is terrible, it might be a little early to completely bury them. People with more recruiting knowledge will be better judges than me on that.

 

[dex8425]

At this point though the West Coast Conference is better and getting more players. There are so many Div I conferences out there that the Pac 10 has to compete with to get good players, so I don't think its a matter of recruiting. If you were a five star recruit, would you rather play for Gonzaga or a Pac 10 team? What about after seeing Portland kick Ucla out of the gym? I"m thinking the wcc gets two or three and the pac 10 gets two.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Pac 10 will be fine

We must remember that the Pac 10 has lost a ton of early entries to the NBA in the last few years. Now it's starting to show. Just to name a few. ... James Harden, Kevin Love, OJ Mayo, Taj Gibson, Demar DeRozan, Spencer Hawes, Drue Holiday, Westbrook (UCLA), the Lopez twins (Stanford), Jordan Hill, etc., are just a few off the top of my head.

These things are cyclical. The Pac 10 clearly is in a down cycle right now. It'll bounce back, just as the Big 10 has. At least I'd expect it to, anyways.