Big 10 Tourney, RPI, and SOS Updates

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SelectionSunday

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Updated Big Ten Tournament Bracket (Jan. 24)
First Round (Thursday, March 13)
11 a.m. CST -- #8 Ohio State (3-4) vs. #9 Indiana (2-4), BTN
1:25 p.m. -- #5 Wisconsin (3-3) vs. #12 Penn State (1-6), BTN
5:30 p.m. -- #7 Northwestern (3-4) vs. #10 Illinois (2-5), ESPN2
7:55 p.m. -- #6 Purdue (3-3) vs. #11 Nebraska (1-5), ESPN2

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 14)
11 a.m. -- #1 Michigan State (7-0) vs. Ohio State/Indiana winner, ESPN/ESPN2
1:25 p.m. -- #4 GOPHERS (4-3) vs. Wisconsin/Penn State winner, ESPN/ESPN2
5:30 p.m. -- #2 Michigan (6-0) vs. Northwestern/Illinois winner, BTN
7:55 p.m. -- #3 Iowa (4-2) vs. Purdue/Nebraska winner, BTN

Currently the Gophers would have a first-round bye. The Gophers haven't had a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament since 2005, the only time in the tournament's 16-year history they were spectators on opening day.

Now to the RPI and SOS stuff, courtesy of Jerry Palm @ CBS.

Big Ten in the RPI
3. Wisconsin (16-3)
4. Michigan State (18-1)
14. Ohio State (16-4)
21. Michigan (14-4)
23. GOPHERS (14-5)
27. Iowa (14-4)
59. Illinois (13-7)
72. Indiana (12-7)
85. Nebraska (9-9)
102. Purdue (13-6)
119. Penn State (10-10)
120. Northwestern (10-10)

Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS)
3. Wisconsin
5. GOPHERS
18. Ohio State
20. Michigan State
29. Nebraska
30. Michigan
44. Illinois
45. Iowa
52. Indiana
58. Northwestern
60. Penn State
140. Purdue

Nonconference SOS
10. Wisconsin
50. Ohio State
54. Michigan State
67. GOPHERS
70. Michigan
92. Nebraska
133. Illinois
151. Iowa
167. Indiana
169. Penn State
235. Northwestern
278. Purdue

Record vs. RPI Top 50
1. Michigan State (5-0)
2. Wisconsin (5-2)
3. Michigan (4-3)
4. GOPHERS (3-4)
5. Iowa (3-4)
6. Ohio State (1-3)
7. Indiana (1-4)
8. Nebraska (1-6)
9. Purdue (0-3)
10. Illinois (0-4)
11. Penn State (0-4)
12. Northwestern (0-5)

Record vs. RPI Top 100
1. Michigan State (8-1)
2. Wisconsin (8-3)
3. Ohio State (8-4)
4. Michigan (6-4)
5. Iowa (5-4)
6. GOPHERS (4-5)
7. Purdue (3-4)
8. Illinois (2-4)
9. Penn State (3-8)
10. Indiana (2-6)
11. Nebraska (2-6)
12. Northwestern (2-9)

Best 3 RPI Wins
1. GOPHERS: Wisconsin (3), Ohio State (14), Florida State (25) = 42
2. Michigan State: vs. Kentucky (12), Ohio State (14), vs. Oklahoma (18) = 44
3. Michigan: @ Wisconsin (3), @ Gophers (23), vs. Florida State (25) = 51
4. Iowa: @ Ohio State (14), vs. Xavier (20), Gophers (23) = 57
5. Wisconsin: Florida (9), @ Virginia (24), vs. Saint Louis (31) = 64
6. Ohio State: North Dakota State (44), Maryland (64), Delaware (71) = 179
7. Indiana: Wisconsin (3), vs. Washington (74), @ Penn State (119) = 196
8. Purdue: Eastern Michigan (56), @ Illinois (59), Nebraska (85) = 200
9. Northwestern: Illinois (59), @ Indiana (72), Purdue (102) = 233
10. Nebraska: Ohio State (14), Miami-Florida (96), vs. Georgia (124) = 234
11. Illinois: vs. Missouri (57), Indiana (72), @ UNLV (108) = 237
12. Penn State: La Salle (76), vs. Saint John's (83), Nebraska (85) = 244
 

Great work!

Do you think not having a solid road win hurts us at all? Or is it fine to just win consistently on the home court?
 

mcal24 said:
Great work!

Do you think not having a solid road win hurts us at all? Or is it fine to just win consistently on the home court?
Click to expand...

Richmond is a pretty good road win. But our road/neutral record could use a boost. We have 3 more chances at a signature road victory in UW, OSU, UM.
 

Richmond

mcal24 said:
Great work!

Do you think not having a solid road win hurts us at all? Or is it fine to just win consistently on the home court?
Click to expand...

Richmond is a very solid road win.
 

mcal24 said:
Great work!

Do you think not having a solid road win hurts us at all? Or is it fine to just win consistently on the home court?
Click to expand...

Thanks.

Most years there are bubble teams that get in simply by being "home-court heroes", but I wouldn't recommend that path; helps to have a couple decent road wins (top-100ish) to back that up. Gophers already have one of those in Richmond (Spiders, currently #53, likely will remain in the top 100 throughout the season).

The win at Richmond is holding up really well so far, but I think it's really helpful (for a bubble team) to have a road win over a NCAA tourney-type team, especially one from your own conference. Those type wins usually are tough to come by, so a road win over Michigan, Ohio State, or Wisconsin could really be a "deal sealer" for the Gophers.

The Gophers just need to be decent on the road, not great. They're 2-4 in road/neutral games so far, so even if they only win 2 of their remaining 6 road games, a 4-8 road/neutral record (4-6 in true road games) would hold up OK among other bubble hopefuls. Not great, but OK. In combination with what they've already done at home, and the (overall) schedule they will have played, 4-8 would be passable.
 


If the Gophers simply finish 4th or 5th in the conference they should be a lock, correct? 11 wins usually achieves that. So if the Gophers can get wins @Neb, NW, @Pur, IU, @NW, IL, PSU, they should get in no matter what. All 5 of those teams are currently at the bottom of the conference.

Assuming they take care of those lower tier teams, wins @WI, @tOSU, Iowa, or @Mich would be bonus wins helping our seeding in the BTT and NCAA Tournament.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Thanks.

Most years there are bubble teams that get in simply by being "home-court heroes", but I wouldn't recommend that path; helps to have a couple decent road wins (top-100ish) to back that up. Gophers already have one of those in Richmond (Spiders, currently #53, likely will remain in the top 100 throughout the season).

The win at Richmond is holding up really well so far, but I think it's really helpful (for a bubble team) to have a road win over a NCAA tourney-type team, especially one from your own conference. Those type wins usually are tough to come by, so a road win over Michigan, Ohio State, or Wisconsin could really be a "deal sealer" for the Gophers.

The Gophers just need to be decent on the road, not great. They're 2-4 in road/neutral games so far, so even if they only win 2 of their remaining 6 road games, a 4-8 road/neutral record (4-6 in true road games) would hold up OK among other bubble hopefuls. Not great, but OK. In combination with what they've already done at home, and the (overall) schedule they will have played, 4-8 would be passable.
Click to expand...

We keep talking about how things would hold up among the bubble teams. With an RPI of 23, we aren't currently on the bubble, are we?

As always, thanks for the updates SS. Its nice to have all these things laid out, especially for someone like me who only understands hockey's pairwise rankings.
 

MadtownGopher said:
If the Gophers simply finish 4th or 5th in the conference they should be a lock, correct? 11 wins usually achieves that. So if the Gophers can get wins @Neb, NW, @Pur, IU, @NW, IL, PSU, they should get in no matter what. All 5 of those teams are currently at the bottom of the conference.

Assuming they take care of those lower tier teams, wins @WI, @tOSU, Iowa, or @Mich would be bonus wins helping our seeding in the BTT and NCAA Tournament.
Click to expand...

I don't put much stock in conference finish because of unbalanced conference schedules (other than the Big East & Big XII). Look more at the overall strength of schedule. Because of the significant conference wins over OSU & Bucky, in my mind it's come down to this for Gophers. If they simply protect their home court the rest of the way (no easy feat with Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana still to play) and win one road game, they'd be nowhere near the bubble. They'd be 20-10 (vs. D1) & 10-8 with at minimum 4 RPI top-50 wins.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
We keep talking about how things would hold up among the bubble teams. With an RPI of 23, we aren't currently on the bubble, are we?
Click to expand...

No, Gophers aren't on the bubble right now, but with our history it never hurts to be prepared for that possibility!
 



SelectionSunday said:
No, Gophers aren't on the bubble right now, but with our history it never hurts to be prepared for that possibility!
Click to expand...

Yep, I'd still probably guess we end up on the bubble because of some losses to teams we should have beaten, particularly with Dre out. Obviously hope I'm wrong though!
 

MadtownGopher said:
Yep, I'd still probably guess we end up on the bubble because of some losses to teams we should have beaten, particularly with Dre out. Obviously hope I'm wrong though!
Click to expand...

It wouldn't shock me if the Gophers lose all 3 of Nebraska, Northwestern (Evanston has become our Rocky Horror Picture Show), and Purdue on the road. I don't expect that to happen, but it's certainly possible. Give me 2 Ws in those 3, and I'd take it in a heartbeat.
 

I think Northwestern scares me the least of those three since they struggle so much offensively (325th rated kenpom). I think our shaky defense won't be as much of a liability as the other two. Who knows, as SS said, that place has been a nightmare for the Gophers to play.
 

The thing that jumps out is Ohio State having an RPI of 14 when there best 3 wins are against NDSU, Maryland, and Delaware. I really think we will beat them in Columbus.
 



Gold Vision said:
I think Northwestern scares me the least of those three since they struggle so much offensively (325th rated kenpom). I think our shaky defense won't be as much of a liability as the other two. Who knows, as SS said, that place has been a nightmare for the Gophers to play.
Click to expand...

Of those 3, Northwestern's the one Gophers absolutely should not lose. But that's what scares me most, those "should not lose" games.
 

It wouldn't shock me if the Gophers lose all 3 of Nebraska, Northwestern (Evanston has become our Rocky Horror Picture Show), and Purdue on the road. I don't expect that to happen, but it's certainly possible. Give me 2 Ws in those 3, and I'd take it in a heartbeat.
Click to expand...

I admit to being gun shy. After the late season collapses we've had I need to talked off the ledge a bit.
 

34Gopher said:
The thing that jumps out is Ohio State having an RPI of 14 when there best 3 wins are against NDSU, Maryland, and Delaware.
Click to expand...

Yep, OSU has built its RPI primarily on the strength of playing and beating a lot of top-100 teams.
 

Blizzard said:
I admit to being gun shy. After the late season collapses we've had I need to talked off the ledge a bit.
Click to expand...

Yeah, same here. I fully expect them to lose to Nebraska. I can only be pleasantly surprised.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Of those 3, Northwestern's the one Gophers absolutely should not lose. But that's what scares me most, those "should not lose" games.
Click to expand...

I watched the Badger game just waiting for a collapse/ Badger run in the last 10 minutes. It was only in the last 2 minutes I started to believe. New coach, new players now have me (slightly) believing that this is a new era.

Mathieu is special. Probably overlooking people, but the last Gopher I remember I felt as much confidence in being able to score when needed was Grier. The only other recent player who had the desire to be the "man" was Westbrook but I didn't feel as confident he would succeed in scoring.
 

Winnipegopher said:
Mathieu is special. Probably overlooking people, but the last Gopher I remember I felt as much confidence in being able to score when needed was Grier. The only other recent player who had the desire to be the "man" was Westbrook but I didn't feel as confident he would succeed in scoring.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%.
 

The collapses may come. A few reasons I don't expect them as much anymore is that at the end of the game the ball is in the hands of our two most fearless players, Lil Dre and Malik. Also, it is much easier to get easy buckets at the end when the D is aggressive and overplaying when you have a true point guard.
 

The thing that stands out to me is that our non-conference schedule -- which everybody on here was ripping as so "lame" at the beginning of the year -- has turned out to be the 4th toughest in the conference. If we were to have added another marquee game at Williams, we would've had the toughest non-conf schedule in the B1G with a new coach and new system. Which would've been crazy.
 

WanderingGopher said:
The thing that stands out to me is that our non-conference schedule -- which everybody on here was ripping as so "lame" at the beginning of the year -- has turned out to be the 4th toughest in the conference. If we were to have added another marquee game at Williams, we would've had the toughest non-conf schedule in the B1G with a new coach and new system. Which would've been crazy.
Click to expand...

Full disclosure.

I ripped the nonconference HOME schedule, and that's my gripe most seasons. The overall nonconference sked was gonna' be decent simply because of the Maui Invite and the game @ Richmond. About the nicest thing I can say about the NC home sked now outside of playing the contractually required ACC game (thankfully FSU's turning out to be good) is that we've avoided (to this point) the 250+ RPI killers on the schedule. As a season-ticket holder, not exactly the calling card I want out of their NC sked.

Current RPI of Gophers' NC home opponents: Florida State (24); Omaha (140); SDSU (194); Lehigh (213); Wofford (219); Montana (223); Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (227); New Orleans (242); and Coastal Carolina (270).

Current average RPI of home opponents = 194.666

Like you said, just to have one other quality home opponent in there to replace one of those 200+ would make a significant difference.
 

Random tangent -
I know NCAA tournament has evolved over the years, but would Pitino be first Gophers coach to get us into NCAA tournament in his first year on job?
 

Shawn Bradley Guy said:
Random tangent -
I know NCAA tournament has evolved over the years, but would Pitino be first Gophers coach to get us into NCAA tournament in his first year on job?
Click to expand...

Muss won the conference title his first year.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Full disclosure.

I ripped the nonconference HOME schedule, and that's my gripe most seasons. The overall nonconference sked was gonna' be decent simply because of the Maui Invite and the game @ Richmond. About the nicest thing I can say about the NC home sked now outside of playing the contractually required ACC game (thankfully FSU's turning out to be good) is that we've avoided (to this point) the 250+ RPI killers on the schedule. As a season-ticket holder, not exactly the calling card I want out of their NC sked.

Current RPI of Gophers' NC home opponents: Florida State (24); Omaha (140); SDSU (194); Lehigh (213); Wofford (219); Montana (223); Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (227); New Orleans (242); and Coastal Carolina (270).

Current average RPI of home opponents = 194.666

Like you said, just to have one other quality home opponent in there to replace one of those 200+ would make a significant difference.
Click to expand...

Iowa St. or Marquette (or both) in place of Coastal Carolina or New Orleans would make a much more entertaining game with better attendance and a better schedule.
 

Gopherguy0723 said:
Iowa St. or Marquette (or both) in place of Coastal Carolina or New Orleans would make a much more entertaining game with better attendance and a better schedule.
Click to expand...

Not gonna happen. How many times do we have to talk about this? Marquette and Iowa State already have more than enough instate non-conference games that they play every year. They aren't going to add Minnesota as a regular rival. Maybe once in a great while, but not as a regular match up.
 



Road wins are significant since they are worth 1.4 as compared to the .06 of a home win in the RPI formula.
 

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