B1G Ten Standings - Deeper Look

[caliGopher]

Below is the standing in the B1G as of yesterday's games. I keep track of a number of stats, because it's fun, and with the bigger conference, it helps put perspective since any teams record in the new B1G is not impacted by 8 teams.

What started this was the argument that Alabama is the best team in the SEC because of who they do play after their opening loss. I don't care about the SEC, but I thought it was interesting and have played around with it most of the season to try to get as objective a look at the results as is posslble.

I've been hesitant to share this, based on the anitcipated reaction this will get from some on the board because it hasn't painted us in the best light. But with two games to go for 16 teams (1 for Purdue and Indiana), the fluctuations aren't as wild as they were in the first part of the season. It puts some perspective on teams with similar records, but also provides perspective on how things might be fallign the way they are.

For the chart below, it's based on the current standings, but he Opponent winning percentage includes the remaing games for each team based on current records. WHile their winning percetages will change a bit, at this point over the next two weeks, it provides a snapshot and some prediction on what lies ahead. Note, this only includes the conference record.

An important note to understand the OW% - H2H column. The header stands for Opponent Winning Percentage - Head-to-head results. I calculate the openents winning percentage for all played games, then subract the results for each team from their season total to remvoe undue influences in the comparisons.

EXAMPLE
The easiest example is Purdue. The raw aggregate record of Purdue's opponents is 32 - 17. However 8 of the wins have come because they played Purdue. When comparing the winning percentage for Purdue's opponents, I subtract the wins and losses from the total. So in this case, since Purdue hasn't won a game, the record used to calculate Purdue's Opponent winning percentage is then 24 - 17.

Why do this? It's a step that looks at how those teams did against the rest of their schedule, removing the impact of their head to head resutls which inflates the opponents overall record since in this case Purdue is the worst team in terms of wins and losses in the conference. Where this really comes in handy is the teams in the middle of the pack to gauge the relative strength of schedule for teams with similar records. As you can see, not only is Purdue at the bottom, but the collective winning percentage of the teams they've played is second highest in the league at 64.3% (which won't change as they only have one remaining game, the result of which won't be included in a revised total).

The results are interesting. Having seen tOSU and Indiana play a number of games, I believe they are very good teams, the collective winning percentage of their opponents suggests that some of their success is also based in part on who they did NOT play, although in their cases, I'm not sure that would have changed their records all that much.

Because of the disparity of schedules, this doesn't prove anything, but provides some additional perspective absent head to head results with 8 of the 18 teams in the conference. The standing are ranked first by position in teh b1G then by OW% - H2H

Team	B1G Standings	OW% - H2H
Indiana	1	41.7%
Ohio State	2	39.5%
Oregon	3	51.2%
USC	3	50.9%
Michigan	3	39.5%
Iowa	6	58.1%
Illinois	6	56.8%
Nebraska	6	47.6%
Minnesota	6	46.5%
UCLA	11	52.6%
Northwestern	11	51.2%
Rutgers	13	45.6%
Wisconsin	14	64.5%
Penn State	14	58.1%
Maryland	14	46.5%
Michigan State	17	58.1%
Purdue	18	64.3%

Below is the straight rank of the opponents winning % by team highest to lowest:

 

[Ope3]

 

[MaxyJR1]

So Michigan and tOSU have had the easiest conference schedules in some sense.

 

[caliGopher]

So Michigan and tOSU have had the easiest conference schedules in some sense.

based on the way the season has played out, it appears that is accurate using the methodology I am using. Their resutls of their head to head won't figure into the final, but it will shift a little based on how next weekend falls out.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Also would show the Badgers have played a truly tough schedule. They might be bad this year, but perhaps not as bad as everyone thinks. If the Gophrrs fail against NW, watch out.

 

[Sparlimb]

Also would show the Badgers have played a truly tough schedule. They might be bad this year, but perhaps not as bad as everyone thinks. If the Gophrrs fail against NW, watch out.

Badgers are awful offensively and pretty good defensively. Lucky for them, we make all offenses look much better then they are. Losing our last two games is definitely in the cards.

 

[Some guy]

People think this is an anomaly schedule for the gophers and the big ten

But this is the way math works

The flex protect model means there aren’t enough games to really compare teams.
Need more round robins. Either 3 groups or 2 groups or 4 groups.

 

[goonin_golden_gophers]

Interesting, although if I remember correctly this comparison introduces a performance-correlated bias [correlates with a team’s own win-loss record because the H2H adjustment rewards winning and punishes losing]. There is the Colley Matrix, which I think corrects for this in part [adjusts for opponent strength without manually subtracting head-to-head results].

May be interesting for your comparison if you have nothing better to do on a Sunday.

here is the paper: https://www.colleyrankings.com/matrate.pdf

 

[GVLCGopherFan]

So Michigan and tOSU have had the easiest conference schedules in some sense.

Ohio State never has to play Ohio State and Michigan never has to play Michigan. Wouldn’t that have impact on a stat like this? Especially since there are only eighteen teams.

 

[Some guy]

Ohio State never has to play Ohio State and Michigan never has to play Michigan. Wouldn’t that have impact on a stat like this? Especially since there are only eighteen teams.

Ohio state has played zero teams in the current top 5
Indiana has played 3 in the current top 10
Oregons second best win is Minnesota


The schedule is broken
They didn’t want divisions to make money. But I am smarter than the networks.
No divisions = no games vs teams with good records

The double bye makes this problem even worse


The problem isn’t just at the top.
It’s possible 5 teams finish with 0 or 1 conference in.
The schedule used to make that extremely unlikely to be more than 2-3 teams and IMPOSSIBLE for more than two teams to be 0-9.
You could have a year with 6 0-9 teams in the current schedule