B1G Confidence Part One: Ranking teams in likelihood of victory (#6. MN; "Auburn might be the best 9-3 team of all-time")

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BleedGopher

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per Nick:

Team #6 Minnesota vs. Auburn, Outback Bowl, January 1

Auburn might be the best 9-3 team of all-time. Minnesota brings the highest level of environment enjoyment to the proceedings so much that P.J. Fleck’s quarter-zip is going to be fashioned in the pattern of the Bloomin’ Onion. The Outback Bowl is the conference’s most intriguing game. I cannot see Minnesota doing anything much at the line of scrimmage to stop Auburn on either side of the ball when they need to though.

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B1G Confidence Part One: Ranking teams in likelihood of victory

Which B1G teams should win their bowl games this postseason?
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Go Gophers!!
 

Going into this year, 2016 UGA was the best ever 3 loss team in SP+, which goes back to 2005.

If you want a really big laugh, look at the best 12 loss teams since 2005.
 

giveme said:
Going into this year, 2016 UGA was the best ever 3 loss team in SP+, which goes back to 2005.

If you want a really big laugh, look at the best 12 loss teams since 2005.
Click to expand...
OH wait, so they're not even in the top 5 of all-time? What a disappointing headline. Still, Minnesota was at one point the worst 9-0 team of all-time...and so it follows they're now likely the worst 10-2 team of all-time. So we'll see how historically awesome 9-3 teams match up with historically mediocre 10-2 teams.
 


MGGopher said:
OH wait, so they're not even in the top 5 of all-time? What a disappointing headline. Still, Minnesota was at one point the worst 9-0 team of all-time...and so it follows they're now likely the worst 10-2 team of all-time. So we'll see how historically awesome 9-3 teams match up with historically mediocre 10-2 teams.
Click to expand...

We're currently #18 in SP+. That's not very good for a 10-2 team, but I am sure there have been plenty of G5 teams that have been 10-2 and had a worse SP+ rating. I'd be pretty surprised if we even have the worst rating for a power conference team that's been 10-2.

And Auburn actually is the 5th best 3 loss team of all time. This list was made before this season began. Furthermore, with a rating of 21.8, this year's Auburn team is actually 5 points ahead of 2017 Washington, the previous previous #5 team on the list for 3 loss teams. Somehow there ended up being a huge dropoff between 2010 Alabama and 2017 Washington among 3 loss teams.

If we beat Auburn, and they don't drop at all in SP+ (which actually is possible if we get a lucky win, since SP+ is play by play based and not simply score based. Furthermore, a good bowl season by other SEC teams could help them), then 2019 Auburn will be in a 2 way tie with 2007 Florida as the second best 4 loss team of all time.
 


I've watched every game they've played and they're nowhere close.
In spite of my SEC bias, the conference was not great this year. One team was head and shoulders better than the rest.
 

giveme said:
Going into this year, 2016 UGA was the best ever 3 loss team in SP+, which goes back to 2005.

If you want a really big laugh, look at the best 12 loss teams since 2005.
Click to expand...
OK, I'm confused. Michigan appears to be the best 3 loss team based on SP+, not Georgia. Also, what is so interesting about the 12 loss teams? Am I missing a joke here?
 

The 1971 Vikings, despite being out-gained 301-87, beat the Packers 3-0 on a late field goal. The Vikes move to 7-2 and put a stranglehold on the NFC Central.

Bud Grant: "Statistics are for losers."
 

MGGopher said:
OH wait, so they're not even in the top 5 of all-time? What a disappointing headline. Still, Minnesota was at one point the worst 9-0 team of all-time...and so it follows they're now likely the worst 10-2 team of all-time. So we'll see how historically awesome 9-3 teams match up with historically mediocre 10-2 teams.
Click to expand...
All Time? Where was this ranking? Link?
 



Spoofin said:
All Time? Where was this ranking? Link?
Click to expand...
Sarcasm. I see it was missed by another above as well. A reference to people saying MN was lucky to beat PSU and "hadn't beaten anyone" to that point.

I don't care how bad a conference is. Any P5 team that wins 10 games is really good. MN pretty much did it in dominating fashion too. I don't care if Auburn is the best or 5th best 3-loss team of all time. This will be a tightly contested game.
 

Auburn will be lazy but if we do not get creative we will not win. Auburn is a good but not great team.
 

It’s interesting how the 1 loss set is better than the 0 loss set, and the 2 loss set is basically equal to the 0 loss. Maybe there’s something to the “gotta get a quality loss” thing
 

highwayman said:
The 1971 Vikings, despite being out-gained 301-87, beat the Packers 3-0 on a late field goal. The Vikes move to 7-2 and put a stranglehold on the NFC Central.

Bud Grant: "Statistics are for losers."
Click to expand...

My dad was at that game! lol
 



gopher8190 said:
OK, I'm confused. Michigan appears to be the best 3 loss team based on SP+, not Georgia. Also, what is so interesting about the 12 loss teams? Am I missing a joke here?
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The idea of being the best 0-12 team of all time. You don’t think that’s funny?

The winner of that award is the 2008 Washington Huskies, coached by Ty Willingham.

They had a one point loss to BYU early in the year because a controversial celebration penalty on QB Jake Locker brought their extra point attempt further back.

Jake Locker had a season ending injury a few games later.

The season closing game featured 0-11 vs 0-11 WSU. WSU won.

IDK why the hell I remember that Washington team in so much detail.
 

giveme said:
The idea of being the best 0-12 team of all time. You don’t think that’s funny?

The winner of that award is the 2008 Washington Huskies, coached by Ty Willingham.

They had a one point loss to BYU early in the year because a controversial celebration penalty on QB Jake Locker brought their extra point attempt further back.

Jake Locker had a season ending injury a few games later.

The season closing game featured 0-11 vs 0-11 WSU. WSU won.

IDK why the hell I remember that Washington team in so much detail.
Click to expand...
I was more curious why Georgia is considered better than a higher SP+ Michigan team. The whole comment just seemed off.
 

Nebraska is the best 5-7 team of all time. We beat them.
Last year Purdue was the best 6-7 team of all time and we beat them
 


meh, they lost the Outback Bowl to Wisconsin, got killed by PSU in the Outback, both in years when they were said to be much better than their record. Surely we should expect a Gopher win.
 


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