At-Large Update, Tuesday (14 bids available)

[SelectionSunday]

As of Tuesday morning, here's how it looks. Have 28 teams fighting for the final 14 at-large bids. Two of those 14 bids will go to Boston College and/or Dayton if they win one of their remaining regular-season games. Listed for all teams is RPI, overall (D-I) record and -- for bubble teams only -- their next game.

Conference Leaders/Conference Tournament Top Seed (31)
3. North Carolina (24-3)
4. Michigan State (23-5)
6. UConn (27-2)
7. Kansas (24-5)
8. Memphis (26-3)
9. Utah (20-7)
11. Xavier (23-5)
12. Washington (22-7)
19. Butler (24-4)
25. LSU (25-4)
29. Siena (23-7)
32. Utah State (25-4)
34. Gonzaga (22-5)
57. Western Kentucky (20-8)
64. VCU (21-9)
67. Davidson (24-6)
71. Northern Iowa (19-10)
76. American (21-7)
90. Stephen F. Austin (15-7)
91. Binghamton (19-8)
96. Weber State (19-8)
97. North Dakota State (21-6)
100. Buffalo (18-9)
116. Robert Morris (21-10)
120. Cornell (17-9)
134. Tennessee-Martin (19-8)
142. Radford (15-11)
149. Morgan State (18-11)
155. Jacksonville (17-12)
163. Cal State Northridge (13-12)
212. Alabama State (16-8)

Locks (20)
1. Pitt (25-3)
2. Duke (24-5)
5. Oklahoma (26-3)
10. Louisville (23-5)
13. Villanova (24-6)
14. Mizzou (23-5)
15. Clemson (22-6)
16. Florida State (22-7)
17. Wake Forest (22-5)
18. Illinois (23-7)
20. West Virginia (20-9)
21. Tennessee (18-10)
22. BYU (21-6)
23. Syracuse (20-8)
24. Purdue (22-7)
26. UCLA (22-7)
28. Marquette (23-6)
33. Arizona State (21-7)
36. Texas (20-9)
38. Cal (21-8)

Strong Bubble (2) -- with 1 more regular-season win become a lock
27. Dayton (24-5): at NC State (Wednesday)
48. Boston College (20-9): at Xavier (Thursday)

Squarely on the Bubble (21)
30. Wisconsin (17-10): at Gophers (Wednesday)
31. Oklahoma State (19-9): Kansas State (tonight)
35. Texas A&M (20-8): at Colorado (Wednesday)
37. GOPHERS (19-8): Wisconsin (Wednesday)
39. Creighton (25-6): vs. Wichita State/Missouri State (Friday)
42. Ohio State (18-9): at Iowa (tonight)
43. South Carolina (20-7): Tennessee (Thursday)
44. Miami-Florida (16-10): at Georgia Tech (Wednesday)
46. San Diego State (17-8): Colorado State (Wednesday)
47. Arizona (18-11): Cal (Thursday)
49. Michigan (17-12): at Gophers (Saturday)
50. Florida (21-8): at Mississippi State (Wednesday)
51. UNLV (20-8): Air Force (Wednesday)
52. Maryland (18-10): Wake Forest (tonight)
53. Cincinnati (17-11): at South Florida (tonight)
54 Rhode Island (22-8): UMass (Saturday)
55. St. Mary's (22-5): vs. Portland/Pepperdine/San Francisco (Sunday)
60. Virginia Tech (17-11): North Carolina (Wednesday)
65. Penn State (20-9): Illinois (Wednesday)
66. Kentucky (19-10): Georgia (Wednesday)
68. Providence (18-11): at Villanova (Thursday)

Weak Bubble (5) -- hanging on a thread
40. Georgetown (15-12): at St. John's (tonight)
41. UAB (20-9): at UTEP (Wednesday)
45. Temple (17-11): Saint Joseph's (Thursday)
70. New Mexico (19-10): Utah (tonight)
72. Kansas State (19-9): at Oklahoma State (tonight)

 

[CollegeBBallFan]

SS, What do you predict if the conference leaders do not win their conference tourney? If won by an all-ready lock team, I suppose there isn't a problem. But won't the bubble get smaller if there are conference tourney (automatic bid) upsets...ie, the GOPHERS win the B10 tourney? (Don't we all wish!!!!!!!)

 

[SelectionSunday]

This is not a prediction of future results. It's just a snapshot of how thinks look as of today.

The bubble is fluid. The at-large board changes daily as we hit the home stretch and conference tournaments get underway. Yes, the bubble can shrink when a surprise team wins a conference tournament. For example, if Butler doesn't win the Horizon League Tournament that's going to take an at-large bid away. The Horizon is a one-bid league, but it becomes a two-bid league if Butler falters. Fortunately for the power conferences this season, there aren't many viable at-large candidates from the smaller leagues.

 

[GVBadger]

I am surprised you don't think the Badgers are in if they go 10-8 and lose the first round in Indy.

I guess they could be left out at 10-8, but it would be real hard to take PSU or Michigan in that scenario.

 

[SelectionSunday]

If the Badgers win Wednesday, I'm making them a lock. But if they lose to the Gophers & then whip up on IU as expected, I likely won't consider them a lock heading into Indy even with the 10-8 mark. They'll be in good shape at 10-8, for sure, but I wouldn't be comfortable calling them a lock.

Big 10 bubble teams are competing against all other bubble teams, not just the ones in their conference. Naturally so, we tend to focus on only the Big 10's bubble. There could be a scenario where most of 'em make it if things fall right, or vice versa. But certainly it helps the Badgers that they swept both Michigan & Penn State, just as it would help the Gophers' case if they swept the Badgers.