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SelectionSunday

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Will update this next on Thursday morning.

Conference Leaders (31)
3. North Carolina (23-3)
5. UConn (26-2)
6. Michigan State (22-5)
7. Memphis (25-3)
8. Kansas (23-5)
9. Utah (20-6)
12. Xavier (23-5)
16. Washington (21-7)
20. Butler (23-4)
24. Siena (22-6)
25. Utah State (25-3)
30. LSU (24-4)
38. Gonzaga (21-5)
43. Creighton (24-6)
61. Western Kentucky (19-8)
65. VCU (20-9)
67. Davidson (22-6)
75. American (20-7)
84. Weber State (18-8)
93. Binghamton (19-8)
100. Stephen F. Austin (14-7)
103. North Dakota State (20-6)
105. Buffalo (17-9)
114. Belmont (18-10)
116. Cornell (16-8)
120. Robert Morris (20-10)
131. Radford (15-10)
141. Tennessee-Martin (18-8)
148. Long Beach State (14-12)
150. Morgan State (17-11)
213. Alabama State (14-8)

Locks (16)
1. Pitt (24-3)
2. Duke (23-5)
4. Oklahoma (25-3)
10. Villanova (23-5)
11. Louisville (22-5)
13. Mizzou (23-4)
14. Illinois (23-6)
15. Clemson (22-5)
17. Wake Forest (21-5)
18. West Virginia (19-9)
19. Florida State (21-7)
21. Syracuse (19-8)
23. Arizona State (21-6)
27. Marquette (23-5)
28. Purdue (21-7)
33. UCLA (21-7)

Strong Bubble (6)
22. BYU (20-6): Utah (Saturday)
31. Cal (21-7): UCLA (Saturday)
34. Dayton (23-5): Temple (Saturday)
37. Texas (19-8): at Oklahoma State (Saturday)
39. South Carolina (20-6): at Vandy (Saturday)
51. Boston College (20-9): at NC State (Wednesday)

Squarely On the Bubble (21)
26. Tennessee (17-10): at Florida (Sunday)
29. Wisconsin (16-10): Michigan (Sunday)
32. Oklahoma State (18-9): Texas (Saturday)
35. Texas A&M (19-8): Iowa State (Saturday)
36. GOPHERS (19-8): Wisconsin (Wednesday)
40. Ohio State (18-8): at Purdue (Saturday)
41. Florida (21-7): Tennessee (Sunday)
42. UAB (19-9): at East Carolina (Saturday)
44. Miami-Florida (16-10): at Georgia Tech (Wednesday)
45. Temple (17-10): at Dayton (Saturday)
46. Michigan (17-11): at Wisconsin (Sunday)
48. UNLV (20-8): Air Force (Wednesday)
49. Arizona (18-10): at Washington (Saturday)
50. Cincinnati (17-10): at Syracuse (Sunday)
52. St. Mary's (21-5): at Loyola Marymount (Saturday)
54. San Diego State (16-8): at TCU (Saturday)
55. Virginia Tech (17-10): Duke (Saturday)
57. Maryland (17-10): at NC State (Sunday)
62. Kentucky (19-9): LSU (Saturday)
63. Penn State (19-9): Indiana (Saturday)
70. Providence (17-11): at Rutgers (Sunday)

Weak Bubble (7)
47. Georgetown (14-12): at Villanova (Saturday)
53. USC (16-11): at Stanford (Saturday)
58. Rhode Island (21-8): at Duquesne (Sunday)
71. New Mexico (18-10): at Colorado State (Saturday)
72. Notre Dame (15-11): at UConn (Saturday)
73. Nebraska (16-10): at Kansas State (Saturday)
76. Kansas State (18-9): Nebraska (Saturday)
 

Hodger, I hate to keep pestering you with questions, but as the resident bubble expert I trust your opinion most about our ncaa chances.

SelectionSunday said:
(2) Split (beating Wisconsin, losing to Michigan) and they might only need one win (perhaps 2) in Indianapolis;

(3) Split (losing to Wisconsin, beating Michigan) and they likely need at least 2 wins in Indy; and
Click to expand...

Are these scenarios to ensure the gophers are a lock come selection sunday or just to be more likely on the good side of the bubble? Secondly, I'm curious why you have us needing an extra win in scenario 3. Is it because Wisky would be another top 50 win and Michigan wouldn't? I'd think that beating Michigan might put a dagger into them (assuming they lose to Wisky this weekend) so we'd have one less bubble team to worry about, whereas it'd be much more likely for them to be chosen over us if they swept the season series from us. Thanks for your input, I'm looking forward to the next installment of the bubble resumes to see how the gophers are stacking up.
 

(1) Are these scenarios to ensure the gophers are a lock come selection sunday or just to be more likely on the good side of the bubble?

More likely on the good side of the bubble.

(2) I'm curious why you have us needing an extra win in scenario 3. Is it because Wisky would be another top 50 win and Michigan wouldn't?

Yes, that's about it. Though Michigan is currently #46, it's possible Big Blue wouldn't be another top-50 win (we haven't had one since Illinois) if we beat them. The Gophers BADLY need to beat another top-50 team to show the committee we haven't completely lost it (at this point, it sure looks like we have). All we've proven the second half of the Big 10 season is that we can beat a historically-bad IU squad and a capable Northwestern team that basically was playing with 2-3 of its best players dog-sick. ... and both games were at home. We certainly aren't passing the "eye test" for being a NCAA team. We look all the part of a NIT team. Beating a red-hot Badgers squad for a 2nd time could change that perception.
 

SS,

How damaging were the losses this weekend for Florida and South Carolina??
 

Florida & South Carolina

Florida (at home) was really damaging. For now I've dropped the Gators out of the 65. South Carolina's loss hurt, but I still think they're in pretty good shape. Win their last two (Tennessee at home, at Georgia) and I think the Gamecocks are pretty much a lock.
 


SS,

Good work as always. But be careful, if you talk about the Gophers not passing the eye test for being a NCAA team, you might get accused of being a Gopher-hater.

For the record, I agree on your assessment of the whole thing and know you're not a Gopher-hater.
 

Anonymous,

There are times when I shake my head at some of the stuff I read here. I have no time for total homers. Gotta' have perspective and take the maroon & gold glasses off.

To a rube anything said or printed that is remotely negative about the Gophers = Gopher hater. I don't get that. The Tim Doyle thread was a hoot. I'm not a huge fan of the guy either, but what he said after the Illinois loss, don't know how a Gopher fan could be offended by it. It was the truth.

The Gophers' resume right now stacks up just fine vs. most all of the true bubble teams, but the bottom line is they're not passing the eye test, which is important when you get down to those final few bids. The Gophers need to make the Louisville win more relevant, and the only way to do that is by playing well these final 2 games + the BTT.

Kinda' like Maryland. The Terps looked awful for the first half of the ACC season, taking away much of the luster of their Michigan State & Michigan wins. But now they're playing well down the stretch so they've brought those significant nonconference wins back into play. If it came down to Maryland & the Gophers for the final bid, I'd take the Terps. They have similar resumes, but the Terps are passing the eye test, the Gophers aren't. It could come down to something as simple as that.
 

Say what you want about the Gophers, but we don't have any bad losses. I don't consider losing to NU at their place a bad loss. Maryland losing to Morgan State and Kentucky losing to VMI are BAD losses. So your eye test and my eye test aren't exactly the same when you look at the total body of work. The Gophers, for all their offensive troubles, win the games they're supposed to win and I think that should count a whole lot.

So taking the Terps over the Gophers is an absoulute joke if you look at the total body of work.
 

That's why being on the Selection Committee must be very interesting. Imagine the discussions they have on cases/differences such as the one you & I have and multiply it 10-fold. They do have a tough job. I find that the first 28-29 at-larges every year are usually pretty obvious, it's those last 5 or 6 where they really have to cruch the numbers & go with their gut(s).
 



KyGopherfan said:
Say what you want about the Gophers, but we don't have any bad losses. I don't consider losing to NU at their place a bad loss. Maryland losing to Morgan State and Kentucky losing to VMI are BAD losses. So your eye test and my eye test aren't exactly the same when you look at the total body of work. The Gophers, for all their offensive troubles, win the games they're supposed to win and I think that should count a whole lot.

So taking the Terps over the Gophers is an absoulute joke if you look at the total body of work.
Click to expand...

Even Florida...they lost to Georgia who is HORRIBLE this year. Northwester loss on the road for us is nothing damaging in my eye. Northwestern is going to be one of those teams to keep an eye out for in the BIGTEN tournament.
 

youngstowngopher said:
Even Florida...they lost to Georgia who is HORRIBLE this year. Northwester loss on the road for us is nothing damaging in my eye. Northwestern is going to be one of those teams to keep an eye out for in the BIGTEN tournament.
Click to expand...

And Kentucky has had 4 or 5 losses AT HOME this season. They got drilled by Vanderbilt, which sucks this year and they lost to VMI at home. And they're definitely not passing the eye test either.
 

Bowling Green getting hot as of late, and possibly squeezing into the tourney would a minor but still nice addition to the resume. It's asking a lot, but I'll be cheering for NDSU, Cornell and Bowling Green (among the others) to pull out the conference tourneys. Besides minor bumps in RPI/SOS, there's always the "record vs tourney teams" that would get a nice pop.
 

Good call on BGSU

They've kinda' snuck up the MAC standings, tied with Buffalo for the best record at 10-4. Even though Buffalo has a better RPI, BGSU would be the top seed as of now because they swept Buffalo. Not a team that stands out in the MAC, but the tournament should be pretty competitive. Gophers' nonconference schedule would certainly look better on paper if we had wins over 4 NCAA qualifiers, the 3 you mentioned + Louisville.
 



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