At-Large Update (14 spots available)

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SelectionSunday

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As of Wednesday morning, I have 14 at-large bids available for the taking. Keep in mind, some teams on the bubble (i.e. Arizona, BYU) are very near "lock status" while others (i.e. Nebraska, Rhode Island) are significant longshots at the very best.

Here's the update, with RPI & overall D-I record.

Conference Leaders (31)
2. North Carolina (23-3)
5. Michigan State (21-5)
6. UConn (6)
7. Kansas (23-5)
8. Memphis (24-3)
11. Utah (19-6)
13. Xavier (22-5)
18. Washington (20-7)
20. Butler (22-4)
25. Siena (22-6)
28. Utah State (24-3)
31. LSU (24-4)
40. Gonzaga (20-5)
45. Creighton (24-6)
57. Davidson (21-6)
58. Western Kentucky (18-8)
70. VCU (19-9)
80. American (19-7)
82. Weber State (17-8)
90. Vermont (22-7)
98. Buffalo (17-8)
103. North Dakota State (19-6)
107. Stephen F. Austin (13-7)
117. Cornell (16-8)
122. Robert Morris (19-10)
128. Radford (14-10)
145. Long Beach State (13-12)
150. Morgan State (17-11)
157. Tennessee-Martin (17-8)
171. Jacksonville (16-11)
211. Alabama State (14-8)

Locks (20). ... barring major disaster in the final 2 weeks of the regular season, these teams are in:
1. Pitt (24-3)
3. Duke (22-5)
4. Oklahoma (25-3)
9. Villanova (22-5)
10. Clemson (22-4)
12. Louisville (22-5)
14. West Virginia (19-8)
15. Mizzou (22-4)
16. Illinois (22-6)
17. Wake Forest (20-5)
19. Florida State (21-7)
21. Marquette (23-4)
22. Arizona State (21-5)
24. Syracuse (19-8)
26. Purdue (21-6)
29. Dayton (23-4)
32. Cal (20-7)
35. UCLA (20-7)
37. Texas (18-8)
48. Boston College (20-9)

On the Bubble (28 in the mix for the remaining 14 bids)
23. BYU (20-6)
27. Tennessee (16-10)
30. Wisconsin (16-10)
33. Oklahoma State (17-9)
34. Texas A&M (19-8)
36. GOPHERS (19-7)
38. Temple (17-9)
39. UAB (19-8)
41. Ohio State (18-8)
42. Florida (21-7)
43. Arizona (18-9)
44. South Carolina (19-6)
46. Miami-Florida (15-10)
49. UNLV (20-7)
50. USC (16-10)
51. St. Mary's (20-5)
53. San Diego State (16-8)
54. Maryland (17-9)
55. Cincinnati (16-10)
56. Michigan (16-11)
60. Kentucky (19-8)
62. Penn State (19-9)
65. Virginia Tech (16-10)
67. Rhode Island (20-8)
71. Providence (17-11)
72. Nebraska (16-10)
73. Notre Dame (14-11)
77. Kansas State (18-8)
 

Hey Selection,

Where would we be at for RPI if we had lost that Louisville game? It seems like that will help us out a lot on Selection Sunday.
 

Hey Hodger, what does San Diego State have to do position itself for an at-large bid if it doesn't win the MWC Tournament?

Thanks.

Go Gophers!!
 

Answers

Dayjoh,

Not sure what the Gophers' RPI would be if they had lost to Louisville. I do know that without that win the Gophers would be sitting in a very precarious position. As it is they're a strong bubble team, and that one win is the main reason why.

Bleed, I think San Diego State's loss at home to BYU last night was critical. In my opinion they're not a strong bubble team, so now it's going to be tough sledding. Think it's mandatory the Aztecs win out in the regular season (at TCU, Colorado State, UNLV), then get to the MWC title game. That would at least keep them in the conversation. They need a couple more quality wins (top-50's) to be considered legitimate. ... UNLV (regular season) and the MWC semifinal opponent (likely) would provide those opportunities.
 

7-6

best I can recall, the gophers are 7-6 vs. all those teams... so far...
 


How many teams will get in from the conference leader list if they don't win their league tournament?

Butler would be one I would think. Siena? Utah State? Gonzaga?

This year especially, a team from one of the BCS conferences could make a run and win a conference tournament that was not going to get in.

Given that, won't it be 28 teams for about 10 spots, if the usual upsets occur?
 

Those are certainly possibilities -- Butler & Gonzaga will get bids regardless -- but I don't factor that in until the upset tournament winner(s) actually occur.
 

St. Mary's in or out?

Hodger, would you have the Gaels in as an at large now or not? They would be a team I would like to see get ko'd in the first round of WCC to soften the bubble competition for the Gophers?

Also, would have Providence in now after their stunner against Pitt?
 

No and no to both St. Mary's and Providence

St. Mary's isn't a strong candidate at this point, and the truth is their resume wasn't that strong to begin with even when Mills was healthy. Just a gut feeling, but the only way St. Mary's has a chance for an at-large is if they make the WCC finals AND MILLS IS PLAYING.

Providence is still on the outside looking in (with an RPI in the 70's), but the Friars at least got themselves back in the mix. If they win at Villanova to close the regular season and then win a couple games in New York, they might have a shot. Really, they have to win at Villanova, no 2 ways around it.

By the way, a little birdie tells me the U basketball staff is confident it will earn an at-large bid if it goes 1-2 in final 3 regular-season games, then wins 1 in Indianapolis. Certainly a possibility, but I'm not quite as confident that a 2-3 finish would lock up a Gopher bid.
 



1-2 and likely playing IU in Indy

on Thursday sounds like an awful scenario to me. Let's just take care of business on the floor, and leave no doubt prior to the BTT.
 

"Let's just take care of business on the floor, and leave no doubt prior to the BTT."

That's what I'd prefer. Finish 2-1 and we're a lock for the NCAA, not to mention we'd likely get a bye in Indy as well. Even if we lose to Illinois, if we beat UW and Michigan there's pretty much no way we'll be seeded lower than #5. The likely tiebreaker scenarios for places 4-7 (likely involving OSU, PSU and/or UW) would work in our favor. We'd 4-2 vs. the other 3 teams in the tie.
 

SS,

I hear the same thing in regards to the staff. They seem to think that 9-9 and a win in Indy will get them in. The thing that could hurt the Gophers in that scenario is that they could be 9-9 in the conference and in seventh place. It isn't all that unrealistic to think that Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State get to 10 wins.

If there are six teams with 10 conference wins and the Gophers are 9-9, I don't like their chances. Now if one of those teams doesn't get to 10 wins and the Gophers are at 9-9, I think their chances improve.

That's just my take.
 

A couple of questions and a comment

Hodger, I noticed that for your blind resume choices you had Temple out and Texas A&M in, yet for your field projection you had them reversed. Is this because you changed your mind or you think that there are better variables to use than the ones you listed for the blind resumes? As a follow up, which factors do you think are most important to the committee? I realize this is probably an impossible question because each member would prioritize things differently.

I don't understand all the love for Gonzaga (not directed at you, Hodger, but rather to the basketball community as a whole) and why they are a lock for the tourney. They have wins over 2 teams in the top 50 of the RPI, neither of which is in the top 25, and just 4 teams in the top 100. I realize they aren't going to get many chances due to the conference they're in, but that seems rather weak for a lock to me. Maybe I'm just still bitter over the 1999 tournament.
 



anonymous said:
SS,

I hear the same thing in regards to the staff. They seem to think that 9-9 and a win in Indy will get them in. The thing that could hurt the Gophers in that scenario is that they could be 9-9 in the conference and in seventh place. It isn't all that unrealistic to think that Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State get to 10 wins.

If there are six teams with 10 conference wins and the Gophers are 9-9, I don't like their chances. Now if one of those teams doesn't get to 10 wins and the Gophers are at 9-9, I think their chances improve.

That's just my take.
Click to expand...

I think we still look superior to PSU even if we end up behind them in the standings by a game. Their L to Temple isn’t good the L to Rhode Island is even worse. Our worst loss is at NU. We aren’t the only team to fall in Evanston this year. Our Louisville win is at least equal to their MSU win. The big win just came out of conference. That would explain why we'd be one game lower in Big Ten standings. Don't forget the year the last year we went to the NCAA Iowa got in over an Indiana team with a superior BT record.
 

Answers for Caravan

Caravan, will try to answer best I can.

(1) I noticed that for your blind resume choices you had Temple out and Texas A&M in, yet for your field projection you had them reversed. Is this because you changed your mind or you think that there are better variables to use than the ones you listed for the blind resumes?

With the grouping of 8 I put together, I just thought Texas A&M looked better. It did kind of make me re-evaluate things. I think Texas A&M is much stronger than Temple right now, especially with the Aggies sitting there with nonconference wins over Arizona & LSU.

(2) Which factors do you think are most important to the committee?

That's tough to say, but I'm pretty certain record vs. top 50, record vs. top 100, road/neutral record (especially wins not on your home court vs. NCAA-caliber teams) & strength of schedule are all biggies. I am 100% certain CONFERENCE AFFILIATION means nothing. Once they get past the 31 automatic bids, every team is being evaluated as an independent. ... that's the way I look at it. And all those "independents" will be judged independently on how they performed & the make-up of their schedule.

(3) I don't understand all the love for Gonzaga (not directed at you, Hodger, but rather to the basketball community as a whole) and why they are a lock for the tourney?

Technically I don't have the Zags as a lock because they are a conference leader, but I know what you're saying. That said, if Gonzaga doesn't win the WCC I will have them locked into the field. They played a difficult nonconference schedule and won enough of those games (Tennessee twice, Oklahoma State, winning at #105 Wazzu is a decent win as well) to merit a bid. Sounds like we differ on this one. They also swept St. Mary's (yes, not as impressive because Mills only played 1 half total vs. the Zags) giving them (as of Thursday morning) 5 top-50 wins.
 

Thanks for the answers, I appreciate your hard work and expertise.

Re: Gonzaga, I want to clarify, I'd have them in the field as well. It's just that most people are projecting them somewhere around a 5 seed whereas I'd have them closer to a 10. If we compare them to a bubble team like Kentucky (I know, sorry for more Kentucky talk): they both have 2 wins over TN; the zags beat Ok. St. while the wildcats beat WV on neutral floors; Gonzaga beat St. Mary's twice (without Mills, as you previously acknowledged), KY beat Florida/Kansas St., both have a bad home loss, etc. Their resumes seem very similar to me and one is a consensus 5 seed while the other seems to be on the outside of the bubble looking in. Of course, now Gonzaga will make me look like an idiot and advance to the final four...
 

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