ESPN's/Connelly's SP+ loves Gophs...7 points over Illini on neutral, 1 point over PSU on neutral...
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Bill ConnellyESPN Staff Writer
Quarterback injuries, Cinderella stories and a few magnificent upsets (and a few more near upsets) have made the first six weeks of the 2022 college football season seem delightfully unstable. But until the top teams actually lose, we remain in cruise control. Alabama and Georgia have both flirted with the idea of losing in recent weeks, and Michigan certainly toyed with Indiana for longer than expected before laying the hammer down.
One team that hasn't appeared vulnerable in a while? Ohio State. After a frustrating but workmanlike 21-10 win over Notre Dame in the season opener, the Buckeyes have beaten five teams of varying quality by an average score of 54-17. They rank a distant first in offensive SP+ through six weeks (3.2 points ahead of second-place Tennessee), and their defense has risen to eighth. That balance, combined with Alabama's injury-aided struggles against Texas A&M, has bumped the Buckeyes to the top spot in SP+.
Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+?
In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
SP+ Week 7 Rankings
| TEAM | SP+ | OFF. SP+ | DEF. SP+ | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|
| 1. Ohio St. (6-0) | 30.4 | 46.5 (1) | 15.9 (8) | -0.2 (93) |
| 2. Alabama (6-0) | 29.1 | 42.3 (4) | 13.5 (2) | 0.3 (21) |
| 3. Georgia (6-0) | 28.3 | 41.9 (5) | 14.0 (3) | 0.4 (5) |
| 4. Michigan (6-0) | 25.4 | 40.9 (8) | 15.9 (9) | 0.4 (3) |
| 5. Texas (4-2) | 23.1 | 41.1 (7) | 18.3 (16) | 0.2 (35) |
| 6. Ole Miss (6-0) | 21.6 | 39.1 (11) | 17.8 (13) | 0.4 (11) |
| 7. Tennessee (5-0) | 21.1 | 43.6 (2) | 22.7 (39) | 0.2 (47) |
| 8. UCLA (6-0) | 18.1 | 42.5 (3) | 24.4 (48) | -0.1 (75) |
| 9. Oregon (5-1) | 17.6 | 41.7 (6) | 24.3 (46) | 0.1 (55) |
| 10. Utah (4-2) | 17.2 | 39.3 (10) | 22.4 (38) | 0.3 (23) |
| 11. Minnesota (4-1) | 16.8 | 31.2 (43) | 14.4 (5) | 0.0 (66) |
| 12. Miss. St. (5-1) | 16.7 | 36.6 (20) | 20.2 (22) | 0.4 (7) |
| 13. Clemson (6-0) | 16.7 | 35.4 (24) | 18.8 (18) | 0.1 (60) |
| 14. Penn St. (5-0) | 15.7 | 31.1 (46) | 15.4 (6) | 0.0 (68) |
| 15. Oklahoma St. (5-0) | 15.5 | 37.0 (17) | 21.9 (32) | 0.3 (15) |
| 16. Kentucky (4-2) | 14.7 | 30.7 (51) | 16.3 (10) | 0.3 (27) |
| 17. Cincinnati (5-1) | 14.7 | 34.2 (27) | 19.4 (20) | -0.1 (73) |
| 18. Oklahoma (3-3) | 14.5 | 38.4 (14) | 24.3 (47) | 0.4 (8) |
| 19. Baylor (3-2) | 14.2 | 32.0 (34) | 17.8 (14) | 0.0 (67) |
| 20. Kansas St. (5-1) | 14.2 | 31.0 (47) | 16.7 (11) | -0.1 (74) |
| 21. Purdue (4-2) | 13.1 | 33.1 (30) | 19.7 (21) | -0.3 (104) |
| 22. Maryland (4-2) | 13.0 | 37.3 (16) | 24.8 (51) | 0.4 (6) |
| 23. TCU (5-0) | 13.0 | 39.6 (9) | 26.4 (60) | -0.2 (94) |
| 24. USC (6-0) | 12.9 | 38.1 (15) | 24.8 (50) | -0.4 (120) |
| 25. LSU (4-2) | 12.4 | 31.8 (37) | 19.1 (19) | -0.3 (106) |
| 26. Texas A&M (3-3) | 12.0 | 27.9 (63) | 15.8 (7) | -0.1 (82) |
| 27. Notre Dame (3-2) | 11.6 | 31.8 (36) | 20.5 (24) | 0.3 (16) |
| 28. Wisconsin (3-3) | 11.5 | 29.7 (55) | 18.2 (15) | 0.0 (70) |
| 29. Iowa (3-3) | 11.2 | 21.6 (102) | 10.7 (1) | 0.4 (9) |
| 30. Wake Forest (5-1) | 10.9 | 39.0 (12) | 28.3 (74) | 0.2 (40) |
| 31. Washington (4-2) | 10.4 | 35.3 (25) | 25.2 (53) | 0.2 (33) |
| 32. NC St. (5-1) | 10.4 | 26.9 (71) | 16.9 (12) | 0.3 (25) |
| 33. Florida St. (4-2) | 10.1 | 32.2 (33) | 21.8 (30) | -0.3 (109) |
| 34. Illinois (5-1) | 9.7 | 24.1 (91) | 14.2 (4) | -0.2 (92) |
| 35. Florida (3-2) | 9.6 | 34.1 (28) | 24.6 (49) | 0.1 (61) |
| 36. S. Carolina (4-2) | 9.1 | 30.9 (49) | 22.2 (36) | 0.4 (2) |
| 37. JMU (5-0) | 9.1 | 31.2 (44) | 22.1 (35) | -0.1 (80) |
| 38. UCF (4-1) | 9.0 | 30.5 (52) | 21.4 (27) | -0.2 (86) |
| 39. Arkansas (3-3) | 8.4 | 36.3 (21) | 27.6 (70) | -0.3 (100) |
| 40. Iowa St. (3-3) | 7.9 | 27.1 (70) | 18.8 (17) | -0.4 (130) |
| 41. Kansas (5-1) | 7.5 | 36.6 (19) | 28.8 (80) | -0.3 (107) |
| 42. Pittsburgh (4-2) | 7.5 | 35.5 (23) | 27.6 (69) | -0.4 (121) |
| 43. Tulane (5-1) | 7.5 | 29.3 (57) | 21.6 (29) | -0.2 (91) |
| 44. Auburn (3-3) | 7.2 | 27.5 (67) | 20.5 (23) | 0.2 (48) |
| 45. Wash. St. (4-2) | 6.8 | 27.8 (65) | 21.1 (26) | 0.2 (46) |
| 46. Coastal Caro. (6-0) | 6.3 | 36.7 (18) | 30.1 (88) | -0.3 (98) |
| 47. W. Virginia (2-3) | 6.0 | 31.7 (38) | 25.8 (56) | 0.1 (53) |
| 48. SMU (2-3) | 5.8 | 35.5 (22) | 29.9 (85) | 0.1 (51) |
| 49. App. St. (3-3) | 5.5 | 32.5 (32) | 26.5 (62) | -0.4 (123) |
| 50. Texas Tech (3-3) | 5.4 | 31.9 (35) | 26.3 (59) | -0.1 (85) |
| 51. N. Carolina (5-1) | 5.3 | 38.4 (13) | 33.4 (101) | 0.3 (29) |
| 52. BYU (4-2) | 5.1 | 31.1 (45) | 25.7 (55) | -0.3 (110) |
| 53. Missouri (2-4) | 5.0 | 26.9 (74) | 21.9 (33) | 0.1 (58) |
| 54. Miami (2-3) | 4.8 | 30.9 (48) | 26.5 (61) | 0.3 (18) |
| 55. Troy (4-2) | 4.7 | 26.7 (76) | 22.2 (37) | 0.2 (37) |
| 56. Oregon St. (4-2) | 4.2 | 31.6 (40) | 27.1 (67) | -0.3 (111) |
| 57. Syracuse (5-0) | 4.2 | 28.2 (61) | 24.3 (45) | 0.2 (38) |
| 58. Michigan St. (2-4) | 3.5 | 30.4 (53) | 26.5 (63) | -0.4 (125) |
| 59. UAB (3-2) | 3.3 | 27.5 (66) | 23.9 (43) | -0.3 (101) |
| 60. Louisville (3-3) | 3.2 | 30.8 (50) | 27.8 (72) | 0.3 (26) |
| 61. Memphis (4-2) | 3.2 | 31.6 (39) | 28.8 (81) | 0.4 (10) |
| 62. ECU (3-3) | 3.0 | 29.0 (58) | 25.6 (54) | -0.4 (127) |
| 63. Houston (3-3) | 2.7 | 32.9 (31) | 30.4 (89) | 0.2 (39) |
| 64. Arizona St. (2-4) | 2.5 | 31.3 (41) | 29.1 (83) | 0.3 (13) |
| 65. Marshall (3-2) | 2.2 | 25.9 (80) | 23.6 (42) | -0.1 (79) |
| 66. S. Alabama (4-1) | 2.2 | 25.0 (85) | 22.9 (40) | 0.1 (54) |
| 67. Nebraska (3-3) | 0.9 | 28.4 (60) | 27.1 (68) | -0.4 (128) |
| 68. Toledo (4-2) | 0.5 | 25.8 (81) | 25.0 (52) | -0.3 (108) |
| 69. UTSA (4-2) | 0.3 | 34.5 (26) | 34.0 (103) | -0.3 (97) |
| 70. WKU (3-3) | 0.1 | 33.3 (29) | 33.3 (100) | 0.0 (63) |
| 71. Louisiana (2-3) | 0.0 | 22.3 (97) | 22.0 (34) | -0.3 (103) |
| 72. Liberty (5-1) | -0.2 | 26.3 (77) | 26.1 (57) | -0.4 (117) |
| 73. Rutgers (3-3) | -0.7 | 20.1 (107) | 21.0 (25) | 0.2 (41) |
| 74. California (3-2) | -1.2 | 20.6 (104) | 21.9 (31) | 0.0 (64) |
| 75. Stanford (1-4) | -1.3 | 31.3 (42) | 32.9 (97) | 0.3 (17) |
| 76. Boise St. (4-2) | -1.7 | 20.0 (108) | 21.5 (28) | -0.1 (83) |
| 77. Duke (4-2) | -2.1 | 27.4 (69) | 29.5 (84) | 0.1 (62) |
| 78. Georgia St. (2-4) | -2.2 | 28.5 (59) | 30.9 (91) | 0.2 (34) |
| 79. So. Miss (2-3) | -2.3 | 20.6 (105) | 23.0 (41) | 0.1 (52) |
| 80. Tulsa (2-4) | -2.4 | 29.8 (54) | 32.0 (94) | -0.1 (77) |
| 81. Ga. Southern (3-3) | -3.3 | 29.7 (56) | 33.0 (98) | 0.0 (69) |
| 82. Air Force (4-2) | -3.3 | 24.9 (86) | 28.4 (75) | 0.1 (50) |
| 83. Virginia (2-4) | -4.2 | 24.8 (89) | 28.5 (76) | -0.4 (124) |
| 84. Indiana (3-3) | -4.6 | 23.4 (92) | 28.2 (73) | 0.3 (32) |
| 85. Ga. Tech (3-3) | -4.7 | 24.6 (90) | 29.0 (82) | -0.3 (99) |
| 86. Va. Tech (2-4) | -6.2 | 17.7 (118) | 24.1 (44) | 0.3 (30) |
| 87. Fresno St. (1-4) | -6.3 | 25.1 (84) | 31.3 (93) | -0.1 (84) |
| 88. Arkansas St. (2-4) | -6.7 | 27.8 (64) | 35.0 (110) | 0.4 (1) |
| 89. Texas St. (3-3) | -6.8 | 21.8 (101) | 28.6 (78) | 0.0 (65) |
| 90. ODU (2-3) | -7.3 | 22.8 (95) | 30.0 (86) | -0.2 (87) |
| 91. San Jose St. (4-1) | -7.9 | 18.7 (112) | 26.2 (58) | -0.3 (113) |
| 92. Vanderbilt (3-3) | -8.3 | 26.0 (79) | 34.6 (107) | 0.3 (22) |
| 93. Army (1-4) | -8.3 | 26.7 (75) | 35.3 (112) | 0.2 (42) |
| 94. Boston Coll. (2-4) | -8.4 | 18.5 (113) | 26.7 (65) | -0.2 (89) |
| 95. Navy (2-3) | -8.9 | 18.2 (115) | 27.0 (66) | -0.1 (78) |
| 96. Arizona (3-3) | -8.9 | 26.9 (72) | 35.4 (114) | -0.4 (114) |
| 97. FAU (2-4) | -9.4 | 24.8 (88) | 33.9 (102) | -0.3 (102) |
| 98. Northwestern (1-5) | -9.4 | 18.8 (111) | 27.8 (71) | -0.4 (126) |
| 99. N. Texas (3-3) | -10.1 | 27.4 (68) | 37.8 (122) | 0.3 (20) |
| 100. UNLV (4-2) | -10.3 | 22.0 (100) | 32.7 (96) | 0.3 (12) |
| 101. EMU (4-2) | -10.7 | 26.9 (73) | 37.8 (120) | 0.2 (44) |
| 102. USF (1-5) | -11.5 | 26.1 (78) | 37.8 (121) | 0.2 (45) |
| 103. MTSU (3-3) | -11.5 | 22.3 (98) | 34.0 (104) | 0.2 (43) |
| 104. CMU (1-5) | -12.4 | 21.1 (103) | 33.2 (99) | -0.4 (119) |
| 105. Miami-OH (3-3) | -12.4 | 17.7 (117) | 30.0 (87) | 0.0 (72) |
| 106. ULM (2-4) | -12.7 | 22.3 (96) | 34.6 (106) | -0.5 (131) |
| 107. Utah St. (2-4) | -12.7 | 22.2 (99) | 35.1 (111) | 0.2 (36) |
| 108. Temple (2-3) | -12.9 | 14.2 (123) | 26.7 (64) | -0.4 (118) |
| 109. Buffalo (3-3) | -13.0 | 23.1 (94) | 36.2 (117) | 0.1 (56) |
| 110. Wyoming (4-3) | -13.4 | 17.1 (119) | 30.8 (90) | 0.3 (24) |
| 111. Kent St. (2-4) | -13.8 | 25.5 (82) | 39.3 (124) | 0.1 (57) |
| 112. NIU (1-5) | -14.5 | 28.1 (62) | 42.2 (127) | -0.4 (116) |
| 113. UTEP (3-4) | -14.6 | 16.4 (120) | 31.3 (92) | 0.3 (14) |
| 114. Ball St. (3-3) | -14.7 | 17.9 (116) | 32.5 (95) | -0.1 (76) |
| 115. La. Tech (2-3) | -14.8 | 23.3 (93) | 37.8 (119) | -0.3 (105) |
| 116. San Diego St. (3-3) | -14.8 | 13.5 (126) | 28.7 (79) | 0.4 (4) |
| 117. Colorado (0-5) | -15.6 | 19.1 (110) | 35.0 (109) | 0.3 (31) |
| 118. Rice (3-2) | -15.7 | 20.2 (106) | 36.1 (116) | 0.3 (28) |
| 119. WMU (2-4) | -17.6 | 18.5 (114) | 36.3 (118) | 0.1 (49) |
| 120. Ohio (3-3) | -18.0 | 25.3 (83) | 43.2 (128) | -0.1 (81) |
| 121. New Mexico (2-4) | -19.3 | 9.5 (130) | 28.6 (77) | -0.2 (96) |
| 122. UConn (3-4) | -19.8 | 15.6 (121) | 35.4 (113) | 0.0 (71) |
| 123. Nevada (2-4) | -20.4 | 13.4 (127) | 34.1 (105) | 0.3 (19) |
| 124. BGSU (2-4) | -21.8 | 19.9 (109) | 41.5 (126) | -0.2 (95) |
| 125. Charlotte (1-5) | -22.0 | 24.9 (87) | 46.8 (131) | -0.2 (88) |
| 126. Colorado St. (1-4) | -23.2 | 12.0 (128) | 34.8 (108) | -0.4 (115) |
| 127. NMSU (1-5) | -25.8 | 10.4 (129) | 35.9 (115) | -0.3 (112) |
| 128. Akron (1-5) | -27.6 | 14.0 (124) | 41.2 (125) | -0.4 (129) |
| 129. UMass (1-5) | -29.3 | 9.1 (131) | 37.9 (123) | -0.4 (122) |
| 130. FIU (2-3) | -29.3 | 13.9 (125) | 43.3 (129) | 0.1 (59) |
| 131. Hawaii (1-5) | -29.5 | 14.5 (122) | 43.7 (130) | -0.2 (90) |
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