A look at the CFP Top 25 (records vs. current top 25)

[SelectionSunday]

1. Mississippi State (2-0)
2. FSU (2-0)
3. Auburn (3-1)
4. Oregon (2-1)
5. Alabama (1-1)
6. TCU (2-1)
7. Kansas State (1-1)
8. Michigan State (1-1)
9. Arizona State (1-1)
10. Notre Dame (0-1)
11. Ole Miss (1-2)
12. Baylor (1-1)
13. Nebraska (0-1)
14. Ohio State (0-0)
15. Oklahoma (1-2)
16. LSU (2-2)
17. Utah (1-1)
18. UCLA (2-2)
19. Arizona (1-1)
20. Georgia (1-0)
21. Clemson (0-2)
22. Duke (1-0)
23. West Virginia (1-3)
24. Georgia Tech (0-1)
25. Wisconsin (0-1)

What stands out? Ohio State is the only ranked team yet to play another (current) top 25 opponent.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Alabama's only top 25 win came against West Virginia. Right now they are probably ranked higher than they should be but they'll get a chance to prove their high ranking with games against LSU, Auburn, and Mississippi St.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Would be huge for all the non-SEC 1-loss teams if LSU could knock off 'Bama. If that happens then I think there's a very reasonable chance all the good SEC teams will finish with 2 losses. The key is Mississippi State must lose @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss.

 

[Some guy]

It is best for the rest of the country if Mississippi State wins out. No way the SEC gets shut out, but if Mississippi State wins out they probably only get one.


If Ohio state beats Michigan state it will be interesting to see how much they move. This playoff committee was designed to eliminate confirmation bias of preseason polls....will be interesting to see if the committee lives up to the hype and jumps people around. A lot of big games this week.

 

[GophersInIowa]

How about Alabama loses to LSU, then beats Miss St. and Auburn. Miss St. also loses to Ole Miss. Georgia loses to Auburn, but Missouri finds a way to lose two of their last three so Georgia wins the east and faces a 2-loss west champion (not sure who would have the tie-breaker in this scenario). Then Georgia wins the SEC championship. So everyone in the SEC would have at least two losses and their conference champion would have three.

Meanwhile, Oregon wins the Pac 12 with just one loss, TCU or Kansas St. win out to win the Big 12, Florida St. is still undefeated, and Michigan St. wins out to win the Big 10. ESPN might just cancel the whole playoffs if no SEC teams would make the playoffs.

 

[Goldmember]

This playoff committee was designed to eliminate confirmation bias of preseason polls....will be interesting to see if the committee lives up to the hype and jumps people around. A lot of big games this week.

Pretty much any typical "SOS" measure would really preclude them from doing so. Modern-day polls are all just an inherently flawed circular reference. The current rankings are almost entirely a reaction to the preseason rankings.

 

[maroonedinCA]

It is best for the rest of the country if Mississippi State wins out. No way the SEC gets shut out, but if Mississippi State wins out they probably only get one.


If Ohio state beats Michigan state it will be interesting to see how much they move. This playoff committee was designed to eliminate confirmation bias of preseason polls....will be interesting to see if the committee lives up to the hype and jumps people around. A lot of big games this week.

What if the polls are right, though? Should the committee just shake things up for the heck of it otherwise you'll view them as promoting the problem (where there really isn't one)?

 

[Some guy]

Pretty much any typical "SOS" measure would really preclude them from doing so. Modern-day polls are all just an inherently flawed circular reference. The current rankings are almost entirely a reaction to the preseason rankings.

Which is why they should have no poll and should pick teams using the same methods the NCAA uses to pick basketball teams (at the end of the year only with no poll)


Eventually I think it gets to the point where it is a 12 team tourney with 10 auto bids for conferences and 2 at larges. Or an 8 team tourney with 6 autos (P5 + 1 nonP5 and 2 at larges) and it all comes out of a dark room on a day like every other NCAA event.

 

[Some guy]

What if the polls are right, though? Should the committee just shake things up for the heck of it otherwise you'll view them as promoting the problem (where there really isn't one)?

If the rankings are right there won't be an upset the rest of the year and they can leave them as is.

 

[maroonedinCA]

If the rankings are right there won't be an upset the rest of the year and they can leave them as is.

No, there can still be upsets, by the very definition of the term. The better team doesn't always win (see Illinois game). That's why a selection committee is key, they can select the best teams they see fit. Interestingly enough, the majority of the time the much maligned BCS seemed to get it right.

The polls are nothing more than an assessment of where things stand today. Your belief is that the committee should just blow those up otherwise they're not doing their job (summary of your original post). My point was only what if the polls are right (which they have been in the past to me) wouldn't it be a disservice to have the committee disagree?

 

[Some guy]

The committee's job is to pick the best 4 teams at the end.

A poll should in mid November should have no bearing on the final 4.



If the poll ends up having no confirmation bias, I'm fine with it. Confirmation bias is rampant in other polls. If the a poll has confirmation bias, I have no problem with it...but it shouldn't be used to pick a champion.



The point of a poll is to rank the teams, if a poll was 100% correct there would be no upsets.
You say the better team doesn't always win which I agree with, but then why do we use records as a criteria? Maybe we should just use the eye test alone. If you don't see confirmation bias in the polls you are not paying attention.

 

[Buck_Buchanan]

Alabama's only top 25 win came against West Virginia. Right now they are probably ranked higher than they should be but they'll get a chance to prove their high ranking with games against LSU, Auburn, and Mississippi St.

No Doubt!

 

[mplsbadger]

Below is a look at what would happen if each higher ranked team beat each lower ranked that remains on their schedule. In this scenario, I've assumed that Auburn gets left out by virtue of not winning their division or conference. In this case an 11-1 Auburn and a 12-1 MSU get left out.

Threats to a one loss MSU getting in.

1) Not enough losses in front of them. You get MSU/Auburn/Alabama, FSU, Oregon/ASU, TCU/KSU.
2) Notre Dame whips ASU in Tempe
3) Georgia upsets the SEC wast champ and two SEC teams get in
4) the committee really blows it and let's in the 2nd place SEC west team

The good news is that the four team playoff hasn't eliminated the significance of the CFB season. There are a lot of elimination games! The playoffs have already begun. I believe there are six games between ranked teams this weekend.

RK TEAM
1 Mississippi State
2 Florida State
y3 Auburn (MSU wins west)
4 Oregon
x5 Alabama (MSU, Auburn)
6 TCU
x7 Kansas State (TCU)
y8 Michigan State
x9 Arizona State (Oregon)
x10 Notre Dame (FSU, ASU)
x11 Ole Miss (MSU)
x12 Baylor (KSU)
x13 Nebraska (MSU)
x14 Ohio State (MSU)
x15 Oklahoma (TCU, Baylor)
x16 LSU (Alabama, MSU)
x17 Utah (Oregon)
x18 UCLA (Oregon)
x19 Arizona (Utah, ASU)
x20 Georgia (Auburn, MSU)
x21 Clemson (FSU)
x22 Duke (FSU)
x23 West Virginia (TCU, KSU)
x24 Georgia Tech (Clemson, Georgia)
x25 Wisconsin (Nebraska, MSU)

 

[Buck_Buchanan]

Below is a look at what would happen if each higher ranked team beat each lower ranked that remains on their schedule. In this scenario, I've assumed that Auburn gets left out by virtue of not winning their division or conference. In this case an 11-1 Auburn and a 12-1 MSU get left out.

Threats to a one loss MSU getting in.

1) Not enough losses in front of them. You get MSU/Auburn/Alabama, FSU, Oregon/ASU, TCU/KSU.
2) Notre Dame whips ASU in Tempe
3) Georgia upsets the SEC wast champ and two SEC teams get in
4) the committee really blows it and let's in the 2nd place SEC west team

The good news is that the four team playoff hasn't eliminated the significance of the CFB season. There are a lot of elimination games! The playoffs have already begun. I believe there are six games between ranked teams this weekend.

RK TEAM
1 Mississippi State
2 Florida State
y3 Auburn (MSU wins west)
4 Oregon
x5 Alabama (MSU, Auburn)
6 TCU
x7 Kansas State (TCU)
y8 Michigan State
x9 Arizona State (Oregon)
x10 Notre Dame (FSU, ASU)
x11 Ole Miss (MSU)
x12 Baylor (KSU)
x13 Nebraska (MSU)
x14 Ohio State (MSU)
x15 Oklahoma (TCU, Baylor)
x16 LSU (Alabama, MSU)
x17 Utah (Oregon)
x18 UCLA (Oregon)
x19 Arizona (Utah, ASU)
x20 Georgia (Auburn, MSU)
x21 Clemson (FSU)
x22 Duke (FSU)
x23 West Virginia (TCU, KSU)
x24 Georgia Tech (Clemson, Georgia)
x25 Wisconsin (Nebraska, MSU)

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-rankings-week-11-predictions-projection-2014