coolhandgopher
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Here's my take on Saturday's match up against Louisville. Keep in mind, I haven't seen a minute of Louisville or the Gophers play this season, so this analysis is all based on stats, which has its drawbacks. Anyway, on with the show:
Louisville vs. Minnesota
The Cardinals season to date
6-1; Strength of Schedule (to date): 172
Wins against: Morehead State, South Alabama, Indiana State, Ohio, Lamar, and Austin Peay
Loss: Western Kentucky
The Gophers have drawn vocal criticism about their non-conference schedule, but up until this Thursday night, Louisville has played a pretty soft schedule. Facing Ole Miss tonight, the Cardinals follow up with the Gophers on Saturday, with UAB, UNLV, and Kentucky their next three games before conference season starts. As with our Gophers, it may be hard to read much into the Cardinals from the competition they've played thus far, but unlike the Gophers the Cardinals got upset by one of their lesser foes.
The Team
Louisville's strength is their frontcourt which features three starters who will likely be drawing NBA paychecks someday, perhaps all of them as early as next year. Conversely, the Cardinals backcourt leaves quite a bit to be desired, and if the Cardinals disappoint this season, it will likely be because of mediocre play from the backcourt. We'll look at the frontcourt first:
Samardo Samuels-In a freshman class that has disappointed thus far, Samuels has delivered. He's leading the Cardinals in scoring, averaging 17 points per game and has scored in double figures in all his games. Shooting at a 63% clip, the only game he shot less than 50% was in their loss to Western Kentucky. He's getting his points without a lot of shots too-the most attempts he has had in a game has been 12 (twice). He gets to the line frequently and has been very good at the line, save for a couple games where he struggled.
Even though Samuels is the post presence for Louisville, he hasn't been dominant as a rebounder yet, averaging slightly over 6 rebounds per game (third on the team), and has had just one game with double figures in rebounds. Standing at 6'8", 240, he hasn't had to face too much height from his opponents, and he certainly has not had to face the depth of height that the Gophers will throw at him with Colton Iverson, Ralph Sampson III, and Jonathan Williams. While the Gophers will likely be tested by Samuels, I expect our post players to give him a pretty good battle too.
Earl Clark and Terrence Williams-Louisville's biggest strength is their starting forwards-two wonderfully versatile and skilled players who create all sorts of match up problems for the opposition. In fact, I believe there's not a team in the nation with a better set of forwards than Louisville. Clark and Williams are 2-3 in scoring for Louisville, 1-2 in rebounding (Williams grabs about 9 per game while Clark adds 8) and 1 and 3 in assists (Williams dishes 5 per game with Clark distributing 3.5 per). They will be extremely tough for the Gophers.
Clark should be matched up in the best 1 on 1 battle with Damian Johnson. They are both very similiar players-athletic, versatile, unselfish. In fact, Clark can be too unselfish and sometimes fades into the background on offense while deferring to teammates. After starting the season off with five consecutive double digit games (including a masterpiece 17 point, 14 rebound, 8 assist game versus Ohio) he has scored 6 points in each of the last two games. He continues to contribute positively in other areas, but if DJ can limit his shots, that's a very good for the Gophers.
The match up that I anticipate causing the most difficulty for the Gophers is Williams. The 6'6" forward hits the boards hard, dishes the ball well, and although he's struggled with his shot early this season, can get his points. Who will defend him? I don't see Jamal Abu-Shamala being able to keep up with him, and if we try to defend him with Westbrook or Hoffarber, I see Williams heading right down to the block and abusing our smaller defenders. Is Devron Bostick up for the challenge? Is Paul Carter's ankle healed enough? Will Travis Busch be able to frustrate Williams? Lots of questions, and if we don't have an answer for Williams, it will be tough to defeat the Cardinals.
Backcourt
Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles-Smith averages about 8.5 points per game with small contributions in rebounds (about 2 per game), assists (1.5 per game), and steals (1.3 per game). His numbers (besides shooting percentage) are down across the board.
Knowles garnered little time as a freshman, but has become one of the top reserves for Pitino this season. His numbers were pretty pedestrian until he broke out for 21 points against Austin Peay in their last game (Smith was in foul trouble that game and it was the first game where Knowles earned more minutes than Smith). He appears to be a spark plug for the Cardinals, contributing about 3 rebounds per game, shoots well beyond the arc (47%) and can be disruptive on defense. I like how the Gophers match up with Westbrook and Hoffarber at this spot.
Edgar Sosa and Andre McGee-When I watched Sosa's final game as a freshman, a loss to Texas A&M in the NCAA tournament, I thought he was going to be a superstar. He scored 31 against Acie Law and the tough Aggies defense that day, getting to the basket at will. However, he didn't carry over that performance to his sophomore year, and he really appears to be struggling with his confidence as a junior. He's averaged 6 points a game on 31% shooting thus far and while he launches a lot of three pointers, he's only connecting 22% of the time. Sosa also is struggling at the point-discounting the opening route against Morehead State where he gave out 10 assists with only 1 turnover, Sosa has had 15 assists and 14 turnovers in the following six games.
As for McGee, the senior co-captain has also struggled at the point guard position. Averaging about 5 points per contest, he has shot awfully-28% from the field. Many of his attempts come from beyond 3 point range, where he has shot 27% on the season. He has shot better the last couple games though, connecting of 5 of 12 three point attempts against Austin Peay and Lamar. Once again, I like our match up at this position with Al Nolen and Devoe Joseph.
The Bench
Pitino has been going with a pretty short bench this season, with the aforementioned seven players being the only players averaging over 10 minutes per game. George Goode is a 6'8" forward who will likely get some time against the Gophers. He averages about 2 and 2 per game. Freshman forward Jared Swopshire might also lend a hand down low, his numbers are similar to Goode's. Will Scott is a guard who may get a few minutes as a long distance specialist. It doesn't look like Pitino's trusting the rest of his bench yet-freshman Kyle Kuric and Terrence Jennings and transfer Reginald Delk have received spotty minutes.
How did Western Kentucky win?
Looking at the numbers, there are a couple things that Western Kentucky did that Louisville's other opponents were unable to do. First they limited their turnovers to 13, which is the season low for a Cardinals opponent. They also outrebounded Louisville 48-34. And on defense, they limited Louisville to 27% shooting.
Pretty simple right? Play tough defense, limit your turnovers, and out rebound the opponent. Do all those things and the Gophers will be alright
How's Louisville winning?
They're turning their opponents over a lot (over 18 per game) and making things difficult on offense. Only Austin Peay has shot over 41% against the Cardinals. They have outrebounded everyone except Western Kentucky and South Alabama, and they have also been solid offensive rebounding, landing in double figures in each game they've played thus far.
What to watch for tonight?
As already pointed out by pinkmartini, we're hoping Ole Miss keeps it close and requires Pitino to play his starters big minutes. Watch how Louisville defends the backcourt of David Huerta and Chris Warren, two players who average 20 points per game each. Huerta's 6'5"-do they match up one of their guards or send T. Williams on him? Who gets Warren?
Ole Miss' frontcourt is pretty uninspiring, so Samuels should have another solid game. Watch to see if Earl Clark is aggressive or passive on the offensive end. Does Sosa continue to struggle? Do Knowles and McGee continue their recent solid play and steal minutes from Smith and Sosa?
How do the Golden Gophers win on Saturday?
As it has already been stated, the Gophers appear to have fortune on their side due to the way the Louisville schedule was constructed. However, are the ten days a good thing? Will their be rust to knock off and will they allow Louisville to get out to a lead and control things? I think it's important for the Gophers to come out strong and keep the margin close in the first half.
As stated above, I think the Gophers match up well in the backcourt and against Samuels and Clark. Terrence Williams is my primary worry for the Gophers at this point. I am hopeful that Paul Carter is healthy, because from everything I've heard, he has the skill base to match up well with Williams. You know Travis Busch will contribute a great deal of effort and physicality in defending Williams also, perhaps he frustrates him. I don't know if Devron Bostick can be counted upon and I see JAS being limited in this match up.
If Al Nolen isn't on the floor for 40 minutes, he should be close to that. That means he has to stay out of foul trouble. I like our guard match up as long as Nolen's on the floor; however, the way Louisville pressures, I don't want this game to be the trial by fire for Devoe Joseph and Westbrook is better as a secondary ball handling option.
Can Lawrence Westbrook be aggressive, yet play within himself? Sometimes in the past he seems to get so amped up and the results are forced shots and forced drives. There's a lot of emotion attached to this game for him-returning to Arizona with lots of family in the crowd.
If Westbrook is struggling on offense who steps up? Will the game plan be to take it down low, trying to get Samuels and the forwards in some foul trouble? Is Hoffarber healthy and ready to keep Louisville's defense honest?
Damian Johnson is playing a similar forward in skills, except with more press clippings and attention. How does DJ react to the challenge? There aren't many players that he'll face as athletically gifted as Clark this season (and the same holds true for Clark)-who gets the upper hand? Will a draw be good enough for the Gophers or will we need DJ to outplay Clark on Saturday?
Nolen, Westbrook, and Johnson are three Gophers who could garner minutes on any top 25 team this season. On a national level, they are largely unknown. They will need to lead the Gophers on Saturday. If they do, the profile of their team and them will attract attention and respect.
So. . .find someone to defend Williams, play Samuels and Clark physical, take advantage of the Cardinals in the backcourt, keep our key guys out of foul trouble. Limit turnovers and keep the Cardinals off the offensive glass. Defend their guards on the perimeter and be cautious on help defense with Williams and Clark, as they will likely drive and kick out to the perimeter. Grab the lead or keep it close in the first 30 minutes, and then prey on Louisville's exhaustion in the last ten minutes of the game. Do those things, and it should be a Golden Saturday
Louisville vs. Minnesota
The Cardinals season to date
6-1; Strength of Schedule (to date): 172
Wins against: Morehead State, South Alabama, Indiana State, Ohio, Lamar, and Austin Peay
Loss: Western Kentucky
The Gophers have drawn vocal criticism about their non-conference schedule, but up until this Thursday night, Louisville has played a pretty soft schedule. Facing Ole Miss tonight, the Cardinals follow up with the Gophers on Saturday, with UAB, UNLV, and Kentucky their next three games before conference season starts. As with our Gophers, it may be hard to read much into the Cardinals from the competition they've played thus far, but unlike the Gophers the Cardinals got upset by one of their lesser foes.
The Team
Louisville's strength is their frontcourt which features three starters who will likely be drawing NBA paychecks someday, perhaps all of them as early as next year. Conversely, the Cardinals backcourt leaves quite a bit to be desired, and if the Cardinals disappoint this season, it will likely be because of mediocre play from the backcourt. We'll look at the frontcourt first:
Samardo Samuels-In a freshman class that has disappointed thus far, Samuels has delivered. He's leading the Cardinals in scoring, averaging 17 points per game and has scored in double figures in all his games. Shooting at a 63% clip, the only game he shot less than 50% was in their loss to Western Kentucky. He's getting his points without a lot of shots too-the most attempts he has had in a game has been 12 (twice). He gets to the line frequently and has been very good at the line, save for a couple games where he struggled.
Even though Samuels is the post presence for Louisville, he hasn't been dominant as a rebounder yet, averaging slightly over 6 rebounds per game (third on the team), and has had just one game with double figures in rebounds. Standing at 6'8", 240, he hasn't had to face too much height from his opponents, and he certainly has not had to face the depth of height that the Gophers will throw at him with Colton Iverson, Ralph Sampson III, and Jonathan Williams. While the Gophers will likely be tested by Samuels, I expect our post players to give him a pretty good battle too.
Earl Clark and Terrence Williams-Louisville's biggest strength is their starting forwards-two wonderfully versatile and skilled players who create all sorts of match up problems for the opposition. In fact, I believe there's not a team in the nation with a better set of forwards than Louisville. Clark and Williams are 2-3 in scoring for Louisville, 1-2 in rebounding (Williams grabs about 9 per game while Clark adds 8) and 1 and 3 in assists (Williams dishes 5 per game with Clark distributing 3.5 per). They will be extremely tough for the Gophers.
Clark should be matched up in the best 1 on 1 battle with Damian Johnson. They are both very similiar players-athletic, versatile, unselfish. In fact, Clark can be too unselfish and sometimes fades into the background on offense while deferring to teammates. After starting the season off with five consecutive double digit games (including a masterpiece 17 point, 14 rebound, 8 assist game versus Ohio) he has scored 6 points in each of the last two games. He continues to contribute positively in other areas, but if DJ can limit his shots, that's a very good for the Gophers.
The match up that I anticipate causing the most difficulty for the Gophers is Williams. The 6'6" forward hits the boards hard, dishes the ball well, and although he's struggled with his shot early this season, can get his points. Who will defend him? I don't see Jamal Abu-Shamala being able to keep up with him, and if we try to defend him with Westbrook or Hoffarber, I see Williams heading right down to the block and abusing our smaller defenders. Is Devron Bostick up for the challenge? Is Paul Carter's ankle healed enough? Will Travis Busch be able to frustrate Williams? Lots of questions, and if we don't have an answer for Williams, it will be tough to defeat the Cardinals.
Backcourt
Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles-Smith averages about 8.5 points per game with small contributions in rebounds (about 2 per game), assists (1.5 per game), and steals (1.3 per game). His numbers (besides shooting percentage) are down across the board.
Knowles garnered little time as a freshman, but has become one of the top reserves for Pitino this season. His numbers were pretty pedestrian until he broke out for 21 points against Austin Peay in their last game (Smith was in foul trouble that game and it was the first game where Knowles earned more minutes than Smith). He appears to be a spark plug for the Cardinals, contributing about 3 rebounds per game, shoots well beyond the arc (47%) and can be disruptive on defense. I like how the Gophers match up with Westbrook and Hoffarber at this spot.
Edgar Sosa and Andre McGee-When I watched Sosa's final game as a freshman, a loss to Texas A&M in the NCAA tournament, I thought he was going to be a superstar. He scored 31 against Acie Law and the tough Aggies defense that day, getting to the basket at will. However, he didn't carry over that performance to his sophomore year, and he really appears to be struggling with his confidence as a junior. He's averaged 6 points a game on 31% shooting thus far and while he launches a lot of three pointers, he's only connecting 22% of the time. Sosa also is struggling at the point-discounting the opening route against Morehead State where he gave out 10 assists with only 1 turnover, Sosa has had 15 assists and 14 turnovers in the following six games.
As for McGee, the senior co-captain has also struggled at the point guard position. Averaging about 5 points per contest, he has shot awfully-28% from the field. Many of his attempts come from beyond 3 point range, where he has shot 27% on the season. He has shot better the last couple games though, connecting of 5 of 12 three point attempts against Austin Peay and Lamar. Once again, I like our match up at this position with Al Nolen and Devoe Joseph.
The Bench
Pitino has been going with a pretty short bench this season, with the aforementioned seven players being the only players averaging over 10 minutes per game. George Goode is a 6'8" forward who will likely get some time against the Gophers. He averages about 2 and 2 per game. Freshman forward Jared Swopshire might also lend a hand down low, his numbers are similar to Goode's. Will Scott is a guard who may get a few minutes as a long distance specialist. It doesn't look like Pitino's trusting the rest of his bench yet-freshman Kyle Kuric and Terrence Jennings and transfer Reginald Delk have received spotty minutes.
How did Western Kentucky win?
Looking at the numbers, there are a couple things that Western Kentucky did that Louisville's other opponents were unable to do. First they limited their turnovers to 13, which is the season low for a Cardinals opponent. They also outrebounded Louisville 48-34. And on defense, they limited Louisville to 27% shooting.
Pretty simple right? Play tough defense, limit your turnovers, and out rebound the opponent. Do all those things and the Gophers will be alright
How's Louisville winning?
They're turning their opponents over a lot (over 18 per game) and making things difficult on offense. Only Austin Peay has shot over 41% against the Cardinals. They have outrebounded everyone except Western Kentucky and South Alabama, and they have also been solid offensive rebounding, landing in double figures in each game they've played thus far.
What to watch for tonight?
As already pointed out by pinkmartini, we're hoping Ole Miss keeps it close and requires Pitino to play his starters big minutes. Watch how Louisville defends the backcourt of David Huerta and Chris Warren, two players who average 20 points per game each. Huerta's 6'5"-do they match up one of their guards or send T. Williams on him? Who gets Warren?
Ole Miss' frontcourt is pretty uninspiring, so Samuels should have another solid game. Watch to see if Earl Clark is aggressive or passive on the offensive end. Does Sosa continue to struggle? Do Knowles and McGee continue their recent solid play and steal minutes from Smith and Sosa?
How do the Golden Gophers win on Saturday?
As it has already been stated, the Gophers appear to have fortune on their side due to the way the Louisville schedule was constructed. However, are the ten days a good thing? Will their be rust to knock off and will they allow Louisville to get out to a lead and control things? I think it's important for the Gophers to come out strong and keep the margin close in the first half.
As stated above, I think the Gophers match up well in the backcourt and against Samuels and Clark. Terrence Williams is my primary worry for the Gophers at this point. I am hopeful that Paul Carter is healthy, because from everything I've heard, he has the skill base to match up well with Williams. You know Travis Busch will contribute a great deal of effort and physicality in defending Williams also, perhaps he frustrates him. I don't know if Devron Bostick can be counted upon and I see JAS being limited in this match up.
If Al Nolen isn't on the floor for 40 minutes, he should be close to that. That means he has to stay out of foul trouble. I like our guard match up as long as Nolen's on the floor; however, the way Louisville pressures, I don't want this game to be the trial by fire for Devoe Joseph and Westbrook is better as a secondary ball handling option.
Can Lawrence Westbrook be aggressive, yet play within himself? Sometimes in the past he seems to get so amped up and the results are forced shots and forced drives. There's a lot of emotion attached to this game for him-returning to Arizona with lots of family in the crowd.
If Westbrook is struggling on offense who steps up? Will the game plan be to take it down low, trying to get Samuels and the forwards in some foul trouble? Is Hoffarber healthy and ready to keep Louisville's defense honest?
Damian Johnson is playing a similar forward in skills, except with more press clippings and attention. How does DJ react to the challenge? There aren't many players that he'll face as athletically gifted as Clark this season (and the same holds true for Clark)-who gets the upper hand? Will a draw be good enough for the Gophers or will we need DJ to outplay Clark on Saturday?
Nolen, Westbrook, and Johnson are three Gophers who could garner minutes on any top 25 team this season. On a national level, they are largely unknown. They will need to lead the Gophers on Saturday. If they do, the profile of their team and them will attract attention and respect.
So. . .find someone to defend Williams, play Samuels and Clark physical, take advantage of the Cardinals in the backcourt, keep our key guys out of foul trouble. Limit turnovers and keep the Cardinals off the offensive glass. Defend their guards on the perimeter and be cautious on help defense with Williams and Clark, as they will likely drive and kick out to the perimeter. Grab the lead or keep it close in the first 30 minutes, and then prey on Louisville's exhaustion in the last ten minutes of the game. Do those things, and it should be a Golden Saturday
