A different way to look at the Big Ten standings

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SelectionSunday

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These B1G +/- standings are relative to finishing 9-9 in the conference. For example, +2 = on pace for 11-7, even = on pace for 9-9, -2 = on pace for 7-11, etc. Primarily these are designed to get a feel for which teams are hovering around the bubble. ... on track to finish in the 10-8 to 8-10 range. Am also including point differential just for the H of it.

Plus/Minus Standings
1. Michigan State (+2, +57) -- 2 road wins
2. Ohio State (+1, +101) -- 1 road win
3. Purdue (+1, +13) -- 2 road wins, 1 home loss
4. Illinois (+1, +3) -- 1 road win
5. Michigan (even, +26) --
6. Wisconsin (even, +26) -- 2 road wins, 2 home losses
7. Gophers (even, -12) -- 2 road wins, 2 home losses
8. Indiana (even, -24) -- 1 road win, 1 home loss
9. Iowa (even, -48) -- 2 road wins, 2 home losses
10. Northwestern (-1, -37) -- 1 home loss
11. Penn State (-2, -40) -- 2 home losses
12. Nebraska (-2, -65) -- 2 home losses

Notes
**Home teams are winning at a 66.6% clip, 26 of 39.

**Home teams have won 7 consecutive games heading into this weekend. The last road win was the Gophers at Penn State last Sunday.

**Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern and Penn State are the only teams yet to win a road game.

**Iowa, Michigan State, the Gophers, Purdue and Wisconsin all have 2 road wins.

**The Gophers are the only team yet to win at home.

For the fun of it, if (like football) basketball was split up into Leaders and Legends, here's how the B1G divisional standings would look (overall conference record first, then divisional).

Leaders
1. Illinois (4-2, 1-2)
2. Purdue (4-2, 1-2)
3. Ohio State (4-2, 1-2)
4. Wisconsin (4-3, 1-0)
5. Indiana (3-4, 2-1)
6. Penn State (2-5, 2-1)

Legends
1. Michigan (5-2, 3-1)
2. Michigan State (4-2, 2-2)
3. Iowa (3-4, 2-1)
4. Northwestern (2-4, 1-1)
5. Gophers (2-4, 0-2)
6. Nebraska (2-5, 0-1)

Weekend Slate
Saturday
Purdue @ Michigan State, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Ohio State @ Nebraska, 7 p.m. (BTN)

Sunday
Penn State @ Indiana, 11 a.m. (BTN)
Wisconsin @ Illinois, 1 p.m. (BTN)
Northwestern @ Gophers, 3 p.m. (BTN)

Projected Road Winners: Ohio State and Wisconsin
 

Interesting to see how close those standing are. One unexpected win would put the Gophers tied for 2nd in that scenario. That only goes to show the parity in the conference this year when bottom teams like Nebraska, PSU, and Iowa take down some of the top teams in Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin (maybe not quite a top team but they were taken down at home). Two questions though:

1) How did you do these projections? Did you go game by game?

2) How does that home team winning percentage compare to years past? It seems like it has been higher in the past.
 

Thanks for the breakdown SS. I will add that weekend games should be on Saturday.

Note: Gophers vs Northwestern at 3:00 Sunday, followed by Gopher Women @ Nebraska at 5:00. Both on BTN!
 

mattw1067 said:
1) How did you do these projections? Did you go game by game?

2) How does that home team winning percentage compare to years past? It seems like it has been higher in the past.
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1) +/- standings aren't projected, they're up to this point.

2) Not sure, but I would agree. Does seem like more road teams are winning this season. Would be interesting to know what the percentages were the last 2-3 seasons.
 

SelectionSunday said:
1) +/- standings aren't projected, they're up to this point.

2) Not sure, but I would agree. Does seem like more road teams are winning this season. Would be interesting to know what the percentages were the last 2-3 seasons.
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Good analysis, but this early in the season and having played twice as many road as home games, calling us "even" because we have the same number of home losses as road wins. We are .500 on the road and .000 at home, so I have trouble with the assertion that that makes us .500 for the year. It assumes that we close out 7-0 at home even though we haven't won at home yet.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I have trouble with the assertion that that makes us .500 for the year. It assumes that we close out 7-0 at home even though we haven't won at home yet.
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True, but it also assumes we won't win another road game, either. We may not, but I think odds are the Gophers will.

Since I'm assuming (most) all of us agree the Gophers aren't going to be winning a B1G title this year, the idea is keep the Gophers hanging out in +1/even territory so at minimum they remain in the hunt for a NCAA bid. The best way to do that is to start winning at home. ... the more they do that, the less pressure there is every time they hit the road.
 

Projected Road Winners: Ohio State and Wisconsin
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Doing the duck and cover SS. I don't see Wisconsin winning and I think Ohio State is a bit iffy in this game.
 

Anything can happen in the B1G this season, for sure. What do I know?. ... I thought Penn State would win 1 or 2 conference games and they've already hit that mark. I've been impressed with what Chambers has done. The Nitts are pretty limited talent-wise after Frazier, but Chambers has them playing very hard.
 

double digit seed

To avoid a double digit seed in the BTT at this rate, it's probably going to take at least 8 wins. It looks like even the bottom feeders are going to have at minimum 5 or 6 wins, which I would think is unusual.

There just don't seem to be many (any?) gimmees in Big 10.
 



Ope3..........In the Big Ten, there are NO gimmees. As GopherLady said awhile back..."On any given (Satur)day....". And that is the way College Basketball should be. Gotta love Big Ten basketball, gotta love College basketball in general. gotta lot of love in my heart for these young pups who pour their hearts and souls into their teams, only to catch crap from the non-participant experts who criticize them.
 

SelectionSunday said:
2) Not sure, but I would agree. Does seem like more road teams are winning this season. Would be interesting to know what the percentages were the last 2-3 seasons.
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Just took a look at last season and the home team won 67.7% of the time (67-32). Three teams finished undefeated (Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Purdue). Three teams (Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana) finished below .500 at home. Only once did a team, that finished below .500, go on the road and beat a team that ended up .500 or better. That was the Gophers at Michigan last year.

The thing about this year so far is that there have been a bunch of upset, so that might influence our perception of things.
 


Dr.Don said:
Ope3..........In the Big Ten, there are NO gimmees. As GopherLady said awhile back..."On any given (Satur)day....". And that is the way College Basketball should be. Gotta love Big Ten basketball, gotta love College basketball in general. gotta lot of love in my heart for these young pups who pour their hearts and souls into their teams, only to catch crap from the non-participant experts who criticize them.
Click to expand...

+1. It's important to remember how much these kids have on their plates over the course of a season. Pretty much every single player on the roster has been written off by Gopherholers at one point or another. On the flip side, though, the heart and soul seems to be much more visible now than it has been at various points over the past year.
 



This is a big game. Win, there is hope for NCCA. Lose and it will be a steep climb to 9-9 in conference play.
 

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