71 are bowl eligible?

SelectionSunday

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Jike or anyone else, are any of the teams listed below ineligible for bowl games? The Georgia schools (State and Southern), Appalachian State, and Old Dominion are the ones I'm wondering about the most?

Looking at the games this weekend, it appears pretty tight whether 80 will get bowl eligible. Perhaps be up to 77 or 78 heading into the final week?

Bowl Eligible (need 80 to fill 40 bowls)
1 Air Force (8-3)
2 Akron (6-5)
3 Alabama (10-1)
4 Appalachian State (8-2)
5 Arizona (6-6)
6 Arizona State (6-5)
7 Arkansas (6-5)
8 Arkansas State (7-3)
9 Auburn (6-5)
10 Baylor (9-1)
11 Boise State (7-4)
12 Bowling Green (8-3)
13 BYU (8-3)
14 Cal (6-5)
15 Central Michigan (6-5)
16 Cincinnati (6-5)
17 Clemson (11-0)
18 Colorado State (6-5)
19 Connecticut (6-5)
20 Duke (6-5)
21 Florida (10-1)
22 Florida State (9-2)
23 Georgia (8-3)
24 Georgia Southern (7-3)
25 Houston (10-1)
26 Iowa (11-0)
27 LSU (7-3)
28 Louisiana Tech (8-3)
29 Louisville (6-5)
30 Marshall (9-2)
31 Memphis (8-3)
32 Miami (7-4)
33 Michigan (9-2)
34 Michigan State (10-1)
35 Middle Tennessee (6-5)
36 Mississippi State (8-3)
37 Navy (9-1)
38 Nevada (6-5)
39 New Mexico (6-5)
40 North Carolina (10-1)
41 NC State (7-4)
42 Northern Illinois (8-3)
43 Northwestern (9-2)
44 Notre Dame (10-1)
45 Ohio (7-4)
46 Ohio State (10-1)
47 Oklahoma (10-1)
48 Oklahoma State (10-1)
49 Ole Miss (8-3)
50 Oregon (8-3)
51 Penn State (7-4)
52 Pitt (8-3)
53 San Diego State (8-3)
54 Southern Miss (8-3)
55 Stanford (9-2)
56 Temple (9-2)
57 Tennessee (7-4)
58 Texas A&M (8-3)
59 TCU (9-2)
60 Texas Tech (6-5)
61 Toledo (9-1)
62 UCLA (8-3)
63 USC (7-4)
64 USF (7-4)
65 Utah (8-3)
66 Utah State (6-5)
67 Washington State (8-3)
68 West Virginia (6-4)
69 Western Kentucky (9-2)
70 Western Michigan (6-5)
71 Wisconsin (8-3)

Need 1 Win
1 Buffalo (5-6) – hosts Massachusetts on Friday
2 East Carolina (5-6) – hosts Cincinnati on Saturday
3 Illinois (5-6) – vs. Northwestern on Saturday
4 Indiana (5-6) -- @ Purdue on Saturday
5 Kentucky (5-6) – hosts Louisville on Saturday
6 Minnesota (5-6) – hosts Wisconsin on Saturday
7 Missouri (5-6) -- @ Arkansas on Friday
8 Nebraska (5-6) – hosts Iowa on Friday
9 Old Dominion (5-6) – hosts FAU on Saturday
10 San Jose State (5-6) – hosts Boise State on Friday
11 South Alabama (5-5) -- @ Georgia Southern on Saturday
12 Tulsa (5-6) -- @ Tulane on Friday
13 Virginia Tech (5-6) -- @ Virginia on Saturday
14 Washington (5-6) – hosts Washington State on Friday

Need 2 Wins
1 Georgia State (4-6) – hosts Troy on Friday
2 Kansas State (4-6) -- @ Kansas on Saturday
3 Louisiana (4-6) -- @ Appalachian State on Saturday
4 Texas (4-6) – hosts Texas Tech on Thanksgiving Day
 

I get four teams that should be favored Buffalo, Indiana, Tulsa and Va Tech. Five that should be competitive Minnesota, Illinois, Old Dominion, Washington and S. Alabama. Of the teams needing two wins only Georgia State and Kansas State look to be still alive after this week.
 

I find conflicting data on whether Appalachian State, Georgia Southern and Old Dominion (and perhaps one other team) are eligible due to their "transition" status. It seems like most bowl projections treat them as eligible.
 

I believe transition teams are eligible, if there are an insufficent number of 6 win teams, they go before a 5 win team.
 

If all the slots aren't filled by 6-win teams, they move to 5-win teams, chosen in descending order of APR.

Here are the APR scores for the 18 teams needing one or two wins to get to six:

Nebraska (5-6) 985
Virginia Tech (5-6) 977
Washington (5-6) 977
Indiana (5-6) 977
Missouri (5-6) 976
Kansas State (4-6) 976
Minnesota (5-6) 975
San Jose State (5-6) 975
Illinois (5-6) 973
Texas (4-6) 958
Louisiana (4-6) 953
Old Dominion (5-6) 951
East Carolina (5-6) 950
Buffalo (5-6) 948
Kentucky (5-6) 945
South Alabama (5-5) 943
Tulsa (5-6) 941
Georgia State (4-6) 940
 



As of tonight there are 72 teams with Bowl eligibility.

Washington won vs Washington State. finished 6-6

Finished 5-7

Missouri
Nebraska
San Jose State
Buffalo

Won to become 5-6

Texas
Georgia State

Game in progress

Tulsa
 

The only transition team this season was Charlotte, so that's a moot point. Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are going bowling, and will be joined by Old Dominion if they beat FAU. I suspect the Sun Belt will max out at three bowl teams, with Georgia Southern knocking out Georgia State, and Appy knocking out ULL and South Alabama.

Tulsa needs to rally in the 4th quarter at Tulane to become eligible tonight. Buffalo losing to UMass cost the MAC an at-large spot. We are getting perilously close to needing 5-7 teams.
 




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