5 of our opponents in preseason rankings

[Go Gophers Rah]

Athlon Magazine is slowly unveiling their pre-season Top-25. Here is what it looks like thus far:

25. Oregon State
24. Notre Dame
23. Iowa
22. Georgia Tech
21. Utah
20. Michigan State
19. North Carolina
18. Cincinnati
17. LSU
16. Nebraska
15. Florida State
14. Georgia
13. Oregon
12. Boise State
11. Cal

I am guessing that among the Top-10 teams will be Penn State and Ohio State.

I think the AP Preseason Poll will be very similar. That means 5 of our 12 opponents (nearly half) will likely be preseason Top-25.

In the past few years, here are the number of teams on our schedule taht appeared in the AP Top-25:

2008: 3
2007: 3
2006: 5
2005: 4
2004: 4
2003: 3
2002: 3
2001: 4
2000: 5

I will concede that this doesn't mean much, as Michigan was ranked at #5 in the 2007 preseason poll and we all know how that worked out for them. My point is that (on paper) this confirms that this could be a difficult season. On the other hand, what an opportunity it could be to knock off a ranked team (or two) this season. Personally, I think our best shot is a W against Cal. It is my theory that Cal underperforms when travelling long distances to play an opponent.

I believe that the last time the Gophers saw a preseason ranking was #25 in 2004.

 

[DCGopher]

Personally, I think our best shot is a W against Cal. It is my theory that Cal underperforms when travelling long distances to play an opponent.

I agree...An 11 AM start time would actually be beneficial for this game. The equivalent of 9 AM for the Cal players. Statistically, West Coast teams (such as the Seattle Seahawks) have downright awful records when traveling east for an early start time game.

Last year a ranked Cal team got beat by a lousy Maryland team that was stomped by Middle Tennessee State and barely squeaked by Delaware the weeks prior...We are their first road game of the year so it very possible with the energy at The Bank we'll come out with that win. Hopefully, Cal will be in the top 10 by that point so our game with them really gets national attention.

 

[pharmacygopher]

I like what you're thinking/drinking. I'm on board with that thinking.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

I looked up a stat that I've been curious about with regards to Cal.

When they've played a nonconference BCS opponent at home during the past 10 seasons they are 5-2 (.714). When they've played on the road against BCS nonconference opponents during that same period, they are 3-4 (.429).

Here are their previous games as a visitor in the Central and Eastern time zones against BCS-league teams that ended the year with at least 4 wins (33% winning average):

2008: lost to Maryland (who ended the year 8-5)
2006: lost to Tennesee (who ended the year 10-4)
2002: defeated Michigan State (who ended the year 4-8)
2000: lost to Illinois (who ended the year 5-6)
1999: lost to Nebraska by a score of 45-0 (Nebraska ended up at 12-1)
1998: lost Oklahoma (who ended the season 5-6)

Don't get me wrong, I think this will be a VERY difficult game and have it marked in my predictions as a loss. I just think that if we were going to pull a big upset, this might be the game because of A) the crowd impact of playing a ranked team in TCF's 2nd game, B) Cal's difficulty in travelling across the country; C) My belief that Cal has plateaued under Tedford and has consistently underacheived; D) The fact that Cal has not yet identified a starter at the QB position.

Go Gophers!

 

[mnboiler]

Any list that has Notre Dame in the #25 right now has lost all credibility with me.

 

[grunkiejr]

Don't get me wrong, I think this will be a VERY difficult game and have it marked in my predictions as a loss. I just think that if we were going to pull a big upset, this might be the game because of A) the crowd impact of playing a ranked team in TCF's 2nd game

Agreed on the impact of the crowd. Not sure if this is our best chance or if MSU is our best chance.

B) Cal's difficulty in travelling across the country

They've just been a bad road team period. You don't need to qualify the statement by defining it when the travel across the country.

C) My belief that Cal has plateaued under Tedford and has consistently underacheived

Maybe, mabybe not. It is too early to tell if you're right. After Boller and Rodgers they haven't been as strong at QB which likely has kept them from taking the next step. They won't be that strong at QB next year either so the point is fair.

D) The fact that Cal has not yet identified a starter at the QB position.

Their starting QB will be Kevin Riley. He split time with Nate Longshore last year and Longshore has graduated. Even if they haven't named Riley the starter he is #1 on the depth chart and Tedford may just be attempting to create competition.

I would like to add:

E) The loss of All America (& 1st Rd Draft Pick) Center Alex Mack, another 1-2 starters on OL and 3 of 4 starting LB's. Maybe even more important than losing Mack and the other OL is that Cal lost their OL coach who was establishing a reputation as one of the best OL coaches in the country. Jahvid Best is an amazing talent but everybody knows a running back needs holes to run and the Cal OL is more of a question mark than it has been for the last few years.

Amongst the teams in the top 25 I feel fine in our chances against Cal, Michigan State, and Penn State.

Michigan State: They won every tight Big Ten game against the middle of the pack last year but still were miles behind OSU & PSU. I question whether they will win as many games this year when they have to replace Javon Ringer & Brian Hoyer. Even if Hoyer wasn't a great QB he has to be given credit for protecting the ball and it is highly likely that a new QB will turn the ball over more than Hoyer. MSU was only a couple turnovers from being 7-5 last year.

Penn State: I'm sure they'll have no problems replacing Maybin as they have consistently shown the ability to replace starters on the DL. However, in Penn State's down years in the last decade it has been because of weakness on the OL. They lost 3 starting OL including 2 All Big Ten players last year and I am less confident in their ability to reload on the OL. They also lost 3 WR's and I'm sure they'll find capable replacements but they won't find the playmakers that they had out there. If they have 1 playmaker and 2 possession receivers they'll be lucky and even in that situation they won't create the same pressure on the edges that they did in 2008. PSU should be favored when we play there but I hihgly doubt they'll be as good in 2009 as they were in 2008.

 

[dpodoll68]

When they've played a nonconference BCS opponent at home during the past 10 seasons they are 5-2 (.714). When they've played on the road against BCS nonconference opponents during that same period, they are 3-4 (.429).

Dude, you've already posted this exact same thing on this very board.

The fact that they are significantly worse on the road than at home is neither unique nor interesting. You could say that about 99.9% of sports teams that have ever existed.

It is also laughable, from a statistical standpoint, that you try to make grand inferences based on a sample size of 14 games...spread out over 10 years, nonetheless.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

dpodoll68... my you are a critical person.

Maybe you should cut people (me specifically) a little slack.

 

[Gold Vision]

Dude, you've already posted this exact same thing on this very board.

The fact that they are significantly worse on the road than at home is neither unique nor interesting. You could say that about 99.9% of sports teams that have ever existed.

It is also laughable, from a statistical standpoint, that you try to make grand inferences based on a sample size of 14 games...spread out over 10 years, nonetheless.

 

[dpodoll68]

Be that as it may, why would you come back and post the same (non-interesting) thing again?

I know if I went out of my way to do some research, I would at least hope that any information I shared would be of any benefit whatsoever.

To further prove how pointless your groundbreaking information is, I went back and looked at Cal's conference records over the last 5 years:

At home, they were 18-4 (.818), while on the road, they were 9-12 (.429). Huh, fancy that. They were significantly better at home than on the road. That almost never happens. Even more interesting, these games were all played in the Pacific time zone!!

Go ahead and analyze the game, but use things that are pertinent, like coaching, player turnover, matchups, etc. Please stop trying to espouse Cal's home/road differential as an indicator of, well, anything at all. Further (something I haven't even brought up yet), what do the results of games that happened 11 years go (under a different coach, no less) have to do with anything related to Cal-Minn 2009?

I will cut you some slack when you stop using recycled statistics that are meaningless and irrelevant.