2019-20 B1G Conference Schedules: Strongest to Weakest

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SelectionSunday

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Ranking the 2019-20 B1G conference schedules based on final conference record (including B1G Tournament results). Keep in mind, teams that finish at the very top (this year MSU, Purdue, Michigan) typically will have among the "easier" schedules because they don't "play themselves".

Teams are listed with their opponents' conference winning percentage and the number of games vs. NCAA qualifiers (out of 20) on their 2019-20 schedule. In addition, currently I'm pegging Michigan State, Ohio State, and Maryland as the top 3 for next season, so I've noted how many times (and where) each team plays those 3.

Strongest to Weakest B1G Schedules
1 Illinois (.5321, 13) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, @ Ohio State

2 Rutgers (.5263, 12) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State, @ Ohio State

3 Northwestern (.5261, 12) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State

4 Indiana (.5114, 13) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

5 Ohio State (.5091, 11) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State

6 Iowa (.5068, 11) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State, Ohio State

7 Nebraska (.4965, 12) -- @ Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

8 Minnesota (.4942, 11) -- Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

9 Wisconsin (.4931, 11) -- Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

10 Penn State (.4908, 12) -- Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

11 Michigan (.4897, 11) -- @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

12 Michigan State (.4793, 11) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, Ohio State

13 Purdue (.4736, 10) -- @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Ohio State

14 Maryland (.4713, 10) -- Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

My early reads?

(1) Michigan State is the clear favorite, but Maryland will be right there with Sparty if at least one of (or both) Bruno Fernando and Anthony Cowan, Jr. return.

(2) If both Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins return, Penn State has the best chance to make a big jump in 2019-20. Can the Nittany Lions finally get to the NCAA and save Pat Chambers' job?

(3) It's going to be another long, long season in Evanston.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Ranking the 2019-20 B1G conference schedules based on final conference record (including B1G Tournament results). Keep in mind, teams that finish at the very top (this year MSU, Purdue, Michigan) typically will have among the "easier" schedules because they don't "play themselves".

Teams are listed with their opponents' conference winning percentage and the number of games vs. NCAA qualifiers (out of 20) on their 2019-20 schedule. In addition, currently I'm pegging Michigan State, Ohio State, and Maryland as the top 3 for next season, so I've noted how many times (and where) each team plays those 3.

Strongest to Weakest B1G Schedules
1 Illinois (.5321, 13) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, @ Ohio State

2 Rutgers (.5263, 12) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State, @ Ohio State

3 Northwestern (.5261, 12) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State

4 Indiana (.5114, 13) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

5 Ohio State (.5091, 11) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State

6 Iowa (.5068, 11) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State, Ohio State

7 Nebraska (.4965, 12) -- @ Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

8 Minnesota (.4942, 11) -- Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

9 Wisconsin (.4931, 11) -- Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

10 Penn State (.4908, 12) -- Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

11 Michigan (.4897, 11) -- @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

12 Michigan State (.4793, 11) -- Maryland, @ Maryland, Ohio State

13 Purdue (.4736, 10) -- @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Ohio State

14 Maryland (.4713, 10) -- Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Ohio State

My early reads?

(1) Michigan State is the clear favorite, but Maryland will be right there with Sparty if at least one of (or both) Bruno Fernando and Anthony Cowan, Jr. return.

(2) If both Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins return, Penn State has the best chance to make a big jump in 2019-20. Can the Nittany Lions finally get to the NCAA and save Pat Chambers' job?

(3) It's going to be another long, long season in Evanston.
Click to expand...

(2) - i sure hope Penn State makes it. So weird that school hasnt had more success.

(3) - Crazy how it turns so fast. Collins had that program in the right trajectory
 

I think Collins will eventually get it figured out, but that's such a tough job. Probably the toughest of the major conferences. There's a reason they've been to one NCAA tourney in the history of the program.
 

Just curious how you decided that those were your top 3...

Going off the past year's win % is not very applicable for very understandable reasons.

Going strictly by my evaluation of talent available, I would list them like this:

MSU
Maryland
Iowa
Michigan
OSU
Purdue

Then a whole slew of teams that have decent enough talent, but lots of questions. Nebraska right now appears to be the very bottom, but who knows what Hoiberg will bring in?

I appreciate the effort, but at the moment, it is a lot of guessing.
 

obobo55 said:
Just curious how you decided that those were your top 3...

Going off the past year's win % is not very applicable for very understandable reasons.

Going strictly by my evaluation of talent available, I would list them like this:

MSU
Maryland
Iowa
Michigan
OSU
Purdue

Then a whole slew of teams that have decent enough talent, but lots of questions. Nebraska right now appears to be the very bottom, but who knows what Hoiberg will bring in?

I appreciate the effort, but at the moment, it is a lot of guessing.
Click to expand...

Agree with you it's a lot of guessing. The two things I'm most comfortable about are MSU is the clear favorite (unless Winston surprisingly leaves early), and Nebraska and Northwestern are the front-runners to finish 13-14.
 


obobo55 said:
Just curious how you decided that those were your top 3...

Going strictly by my evaluation of talent available, I would list them like this:

MSU
Maryland
Iowa
Michigan
OSU
Purdue
Click to expand...

For sh*ts and giggles, here's my current B1G projection. With all the NBA Draft stuff to be figured out, obviously a lot will change, but until then I do make some general assumptions about who'll stay and who'll go.

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Yeah, we aren't far off. I guess I just am not sure about the Buckeyes. I know they have a nice incoming class, but I need to see more from Miller to believe they really could challenge for the top of the league. Turgeon already has proven to me that he will underperform their talent. Beilien & Painter will get everything out of what they have.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Ranking the 2019-20 B1G conference schedules based on final conference record (including B1G Tournament results). Keep in mind, teams that finish at the very top (this year MSU, Purdue, Michigan) typically will have among the "easier" schedules because they don't "play themselves".
Click to expand...

Did you consider doing a full SOS analysis rather than just looking at conference finishes?
 

brucekaupa said:
Did you consider doing a full SOS analysis rather than just looking at conference finishes?
Click to expand...

No. Time constraints!

Use conference records as the guide. As obobo pointed out, far from a perfect measuring tool, but I still think it gives a decent picture of next year's schedules.
 



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