2011 - 2012

Atl Gopher

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I am watching the replay of the last regular season game with Penn State. This game symbolizes our last 10 or so games. I am home this week recovering from hip replacement surgery, so some observations and thoughts:

• Guard play was atrocious. With 3 freshmen guards and a shooter (Hoff) trying to play point, it was understandable. The 3 struggled to finish when they penetrated and other than Hoff, could not hit a big 3 pointer. With some bright exceptions the 3 could not hit an outside shot in general.

o With the loss of Nolan and the defection of Devoe we lacked anyone that could consistently bring the ball up the floor and distribute the ball inside. After Devoe’s finish in 2009-2010, I thought he could have been our best player, so this was a huge loss. When the 3 did distribute, the results were quite positive. Austin has the ability to hit the outside shot and the other 2 guards now have gained some not anticipated extremely valuable experience. They will be better this year. We have added 2 other guards that will add to our depth at the point position and are arguably our most talented guards going into this season. We have added a 3rd guard in Joe who may surprise a lot of people this year. He can hit the outside shot. We lose Hoff but we will have several options this year (as compared only one last season who can hit the 3) so I look for our performance overall in this area to be improved.

o The biggest question here is do we have that go-to guy that can make things happen with that outside shot? Andre, Austin, Joe, Otto, Julian and others may not be that person that can take over a game just yet. If one of them steps up or Rodney can finally lives up to expectations then, WOW!

• Free throw shooting overall was poor and often was the difference in losing games last year. Chip will have to dramatically improve in this area or he will find himself on the bench in a clean-up role.

o I believe that all 3 guards added will be much stronger free throw shooters than we have had in the past. Otto will see a lot of time on the floor and that will add to our improved free throw shooting. Hopefully, Mo will recover and although he only took 10 free throws last year, I think he will be an improvement over Iverson. Trevor needs to improve in this area most of all but I believe he will. I could see us adding 4 to 5 more points per game just through improved free throw shooting.

• Tubby loves defense. Tubby loves to press. With the loss of 3 players (including Mo) during the year, he lacked the depth to make the kinds of substitutions that would allow him to press the way he likes. With the loss of Nolan we lost our most talented person in this area and one of the best steal leaders in the country.

o We will have depth this year. We will have depth at the guard position. I don’t know if we will have the lock-down defender like Al or Damian but our depth will allow us to press and steal.

• We could be one of the best rebounding teams in America this year. Trevor should be one of the best in the country and Ralph will be better. Now add a healthy Mo, Elliot (who Tubby has repeatedly said has excited him during his red-shirt year), Andre Ingram, Rodney stepping up, and Chris. We lose only Iverson and although he rebounded okay, I felt he was completely lost most of the year.

• We were in most of our games down the stretch but lacked the player that could control the game in the end. With our lack of depth we seemed to run out of steam in almost every game. This will simply not be an issue this coming season.

• I can’t wait to see Rodney this year.

• Ralph came back and he knows what he has to do to play at the next level. Sometimes it takes longer for some of us to mature. I think Ralph will be one of the top players in the Big Ten this year. He has all of the tools.

• Trevor came back and that alone gives us hope for a great season this year.

I am very excited about this upcoming season. We have a great coach who will finally have a team that he can coach up. With all of the issues we have faced over the past two years behind us, we are due. I can’t wait for November and I am not taking any of the strong medications prescribed by my Surgeon while I recuperate from my surgery.
 

Good post! I'm also excited to see Rod. He made LBJ skills academy over 15 of the best wings in college bball. There has to be something there.
 

I am really excited to see what Oto brings to the floor. If he can shoot as well as some say and can stretch the defense then he can really make a difference.
 

You're right to be excited about Oto and Mo. They will both help our rebounding, and the flow of our offense. Mo was a big loss last year, and Oto's shot looks good. I'd temper my expectations on Coleman. From what I've seen in Pulley, his shot is busted right now. It could come around, but I think we'll have to be content with getting defensive energy and transition offense from Coleman next year. You're right that Chip needs to step up, or he may lose his spot. I'm excited for next year too. I think your best point is about depth. Without depth, we could pressure the other team, we wore down, and we didn't have the legs down the stretch. I think the new faces will help us this year.
 

• Free throw shooting overall was poor and often was the difference in losing games last year.

o I believe that all 3 guards added will be much stronger free throw shooters than we have had in the past. Otto will see a lot of time on the floor and that will add to our improved free throw shooting. Hopefully, Mo will recover and although he only took 10 free throws last year, I think he will be an improvement over Iverson. Trevor needs to improve in this area most of all but I believe he will. I could see us adding 4 to 5 more points per game just through improved free throw shooting.

Both the Gophers and Mbakwe were exactly average (i.e, 69%) when free throw shooting in conference play. For the year, Minnesota shot 66%. If they were average for the full year, they would have averaged just 0.7 more points per game.

If Minnesota's free throw shooting was better last year, so much that it got us to the the low end of your suggested 4 to 5 additional points per game, they would have had the best free throw percentage in NCAA D1 basketball, ever.

(By the way, last year a crappy team did break the all-time record, formerly held by '84(?) Harvard.)
 


GW - solid analysis of the %'s. Although not the OP's point, I do believe we could definitely add 4-5 points per game off free throws, not necessarily through improved percentage but through getting to the line better/more consistently and (hopefully) being ahead more often in late game scenarios, leading to guards making FTs down the stretch
 

You're right to be excited about Oto and Mo. They will both help our rebounding, and the flow of our offense. Mo was a big loss last year, and Oto's shot looks good. I'd temper my expectations on Coleman. From what I've seen in Pulley, his shot is busted right now. It could come around, but I think we'll have to be content with getting defensive energy and transition offense from Coleman next year. You're right that Chip needs to step up, or he may lose his spot. I'm excited for next year too. I think your best point is about depth. Without depth, we could pressure the other team, we wore down, and we didn't have the legs down the stretch. I think the new faces will help us this year.

Coleman scored 45 at Pulley tonight.
 

Coleman scored 45 at Pulley tonight.

Could you give some analysis (however brief) on how he scored his 45 points (and possibly other future Gophers who played)?
 

Could you give some analysis (however brief) on how he scored his 45 points (and possibly other future Gophers who played)?

I wish I could but I just pulled that off of twitter. It sounds like it was a very high scoring game, so the point totals are probably exaggerated. There hasn't been much pulley league info since those first couple games.
 




So many of those games late in the season the Gophers had the lead with under three minutes to play and simply failed to close out. I agree that the guard play was terrible, but I don't buy it as an excuse for losing the games, but do buy it as an excuse for lesser teams to stay within range of the Gophers.

I agree with the concept of having to find a guard who can make things happen, but not just with his outside shot. We need a guy who can create his own shot period. That guy has to be able to hit a jumper and take it in the lane and get to the rack.

I HOPE Tubby likes to press, but I am not sure he does. It seems like, with few exceptions, the Gophers have only used the press against teams they completely overmatch (most of the non conference schedule and the bad Big Ten teams). In fact, I think that is a reason why the Gophers have underachieved in conference play at times...they get used to getting easy baskets off the press/transition against lesser opposition, and then play a halfcourt style on both ends of the floor against solid Big Ten teams.
 

Both the Gophers and Mbakwe were exactly average (i.e, 69%) when free throw shooting in conference play. For the year, Minnesota shot 66%. If they were average for the full year, they would have averaged just 0.7 more points per game.

If Minnesota's free throw shooting was better last year, so much that it got us to the the low end of your suggested 4 to 5 additional points per game, they would have had the best free throw percentage in NCAA D1 basketball, ever.

(By the way, last year a crappy team did break the all-time record, formerly held by '84(?) Harvard.)

I did not approach it that way but you certainly make a good point. However, if Iverson, Rodney and Trevor were at 75% it would have meant an additional 2 points per game for us. It also seemed that we would often miss the front end of the one and one, so how do we calculate how many points and games that cost us.

I don't exepct us to break the NCAA record but I don't expect us to be average either. I want opposing teams to afraid to foul us thus giving us more open shots. Rodney for example was under 50% for the year, so why not throw everything at him and if you fould him, so what?

By the way how can someone with his ability to drive to the hoop have only 60 some odd free throws all year? How many games do we win this coming season if that number goes up to 150 free throws?
 

With Joe shooting is definitely an area for improvement, but he did hit quite a few nice looking jumpers tonight including at least one from NBA range.
 



I did not approach it that way but you certainly make a good point. However, if Iverson, Rodney and Trevor were at 75% it would have meant an additional 2 points per game for us. It also seemed that we would often miss the front end of the one and one, so how do we calculate how many points and games that cost us.

I don't exepct us to break the NCAA record but I don't expect us to be average either. I want opposing teams to afraid to foul us thus giving us more open shots. Rodney for example was under 50% for the year, so why not throw everything at him and if you fould him, so what?

By the way how can someone with his ability to drive to the hoop have only 60 some odd free throws all year? How many games do we win this coming season if that number goes up to 150 free throws?

I'd love to see some of Joe Coleman's aggressiveness/tenacity rub off on Rodney this year. Would do wonders for his production.
 



For thhe record....

Joe Coleman had 54 points last night, and made just one three pointer (maybe 4 or 5 attempts)

Lots of free throws..he is a fine foul shooter. Shoots well in rhythm of the dribble, but his shot looks funny from distance. Still....I'll take him. Andre H. showed up just before half time and finished with 18, but their team went down to the Dan Coleman led (44 pts.) by 8.
 

Joe Coleman had 54 points last night, and made just one three pointer (maybe 4 or 5 attempts)

Lots of free throws..he is a fine foul shooter. Shoots well in rhythm of the dribble, but his shot looks funny from distance. Still....I'll take him. Andre H. showed up just before half time and finished with 18, but their team went down to the Dan Coleman led (44 pts.) by 8.

@MnHoops had it the other way around, 45 points for Joe and 54 for Dan. Either way, that's a lot of points for the Coleman brothers.

Did Oto not play last night?
 

I HOPE Tubby likes to press, but I am not sure he does. It seems like, with few exceptions, the Gophers have only used the press against teams they completely overmatch (most of the non conference schedule and the bad Big Ten teams). In fact, I think that is a reason why the Gophers have underachieved in conference play at times...they get used to getting easy baskets off the press/transition against lesser opposition, and then play a halfcourt style on both ends of the floor against solid Big Ten teams.

I agree with this. I don't understand why we don't press more in conference play. I understand it was tough to do last year, but I hope we will this year. Most teams don't see a sustained press often, which makes it more effective. I'm surprised by how little B1G teams do it overall. I expected us to be pressed into oblivion after Al went out last year, but almost nobody did unless they were forced to. MSU did it late in the game at the Barn with great results, but everyone else was reluctant. I guess they didn't need to in the end.
 

Joe Coleman had 54 points last night, and made just one three pointer (maybe 4 or 5 attempts)

Lots of free throws..he is a fine foul shooter. Shoots well in rhythm of the dribble, but his shot looks funny from distance. Still....I'll take him. Andre H. showed up just before half time and finished with 18, but their team went down to the Dan Coleman led (44 pts.) by 8.

I have video evidence that says otherwise.

Edit: If you're talking only 1 NBA range three then you're right, but the Gophers aren't in the NBA so I counted the ones when he was a little ahead of the NBA line.
 

Want to show us a link for the video evidence? I'm excited to hear Joe scoring that much....
 

My friends who were there were less than impressed. Apparently Joe was gunning all night. However, Hollins looked good apparently. Also, apparently Mav has made great strides since last year, looking good on D, and with a decent shot. Although, at one point, apparently Rodney had the ball, prompting the other team's bench to yell out, "He can't shoot it," at which point, discouraged, Rodney threw it to Mav, prompting the follow-up from the bench, "He can't shoot it either." It'd be nice if it were true that Mav's made strides, but I'll believe it when I see it. Also, apparently Rodney still has ridiculous leaping ability, and highlight reel plays, but is still tentative, and doesn't call for the ball or look for driving lanes. Which is discouraging.
 

The official book.........

I have video evidence that says otherwise.

Edit: If you're talking only 1 NBA range three then you're right, but the Gophers aren't in the NBA so I counted the ones when he was a little ahead of the NBA line.

Had Joe with 54,,,making 1 3 pointer. He made have made some others, but they were counted as 2. Dan also confirmed at 44, according to the book.
 




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