Lets say we beat Purdue,Iowa, and Illinois, but lose to Michigan and end the season at 19-11. Can the committee leave us out with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, OSU, and Butler? I don't think so.
We could certainly be left home with only 19 wins. Sure, we'd have several good wins, but also several bad losses. It comes down to RPI and we need to get in top 50 to feel good about our chances. If we lose to Michigan twice, we'd probably need to finish at least in the top 4 in BT Tourney, maybe even make it to the championship game.
Upon further research, last Year our RPI was 42, right now its at 73. Some teams with RPI in 40s didn't make it. We can't really afford any more losses during regular season or we probably need to make finals of BT Tourney