16 Teams Still In The CFP Hunt

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SelectionSunday

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With 3 weeks left in the regular season, the list of CFP contenders has dwindled to 16 (so long LSU). Some of these, i.e. Houston and the 2-loss teams, are much more far-fetched than the others.

Tonight's release of the rankings will be at 8:30 on ESPN, instead of the usual 6 p.m. Will be announced between the Duke-Kentucky and Kansas-Michigan State basketball games. Last week's rankings included.

The Undefeated
#1 Clemson (book it; Tigers will choke in ACC title game vs. Carolina)
#3 Ohio State (no team can help itself more in the final 3 weeks than the Buckeyes)
#5 Iowa (Hawkeyes deserve credit for what they've done, but I suspect Nebraska crushes the dream)
#8 Oklahoma State (though both at home, will lose to either Baylor or Bedlam rival, or both)
#24 Houston (leader for Group of 5's New Year's 6 at-large

The Once Beaten
#2 Alabama (can't see Tide losing again before the playoff)
#4 Notre Dame (most interesting scenario for a bid would be 1-loss Irish vs. unbeaten Iowa and/or 1-loss Sooners)
#6 Baylor (fraudulent but will keep them around at least for another week)
#11 Florida (Gators quietly lurking)
#12 Oklahoma (Big XII's most impressive team)
#13 Michigan State (pains me to say it, but OSU gonna' crush Sparty and its CFP hopes on Saturday)
#15 TCU (like Sparty, will be gone from this last after this weekend)
#23 North Carolina (UNC-Clemson should be entertaining shootout)

The Twice Beaten Hangers-On
#7 Stanford (still could go 11-2 with wins over Utah & Notre Dame. ... if all hell breaks loose?)
#10 Utah (if I have Michigan in this conversation, hafta' keep Utes in it)
#14 Michigan (drops from list if Sparty beats OSU this weekend)

Tonight's Projected Top 10
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Iowa
5. Notre Dame
6. Oklahoma State
7. Oklahoma
8. Florida
9. Michigan State
10. Baylor
 

Putting them in elimination groups makes it fun to watch the season play out.

Group 1: Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin

Group 2: Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina

Group 3: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU

Group 4: Alabama, Florida

Odd man out: Houston, Stanford, Utah

I'd say one and only only one team gets out of each group above with two possible exceptions:

1) ND and Clemson both win out. ND gets in over any two loss conference champion. They maybe get in over a one loss conference champion but I doubt it because they lost to Clemson.

2) if Wisconsin or Michigan win the big ten then weird stuff could happen
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Undefeated
#1 Clemson (book it; Tigers will choke in ACC title game vs. Carolina)
#3 Ohio State (no team can help itself more in the final 3 weeks than the Buckeyes)
#5 Iowa (Hawkeyes deserve credit for what they've done, but I suspect Nebraska crushes the dream)
#8 Oklahoma State (though both at home, will lose to either Baylor or Bedlam rival, or both)
#24 Houston (leader for Group of 5's New Year's 6 at-large
Click to expand...

I've said it before, Iowa will enter its bowl game with two losses. The Gophers exposed some major holes in their defense, and Nebraska is perfectly equipped to take advantage. Whether the Huskers defense holds up their end of the bargain remains to be seen, but I agree they'll get it done at home.

Can't wait to watch Houston-Navy....never thought I'd say that.

SelectionSunday said:
The Once Beaten
#2 Alabama (can't see Tide losing again before the playoff)
#4 Notre Dame (most interesting scenario for a bid would be 1-loss Irish vs. unbeaten Iowa and/or 1-loss Sooners)
#6 Baylor (fraudulent but will keep them around at least for another week)
#11 Florida (Gators quietly lurking)
#12 Oklahoma (Big XII's most impressive team)
#13 Michigan State (pains me to say it, but OSU gonna' crush Sparty and its CFP hopes on Saturday)
#15 TCU (like Sparty, will be gone from this last after this weekend)
#23 North Carolina (UNC-Clemson should be entertaining shootout)
Click to expand...

It pains me that I am rooting for Notre Dame to make the playoff just so Iowa doesn't. But yes, assuming the top three holds steady the rest of the way, the debate over Notre Dame or Oklahoma would be fascinating, should both teams win out.

I still think Florida sucks. The SEC East is an abomination.
 

Who outside of South Bend really wants to see ND play Clemson again?
 

I went through this yesterday with a buddy. I have 10 teams that pretty much control their own destiny:

Florida
Alabama
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Ohio State
Michigan State
Stanford
North Carolina
Clemson

Winner of Florida/Bama is in.
Big 10 champ is in.
Winner of Clemson/UNC is in.
Sooners, Cowboys, Irish, and Stanford fight to the death for the last spot.

That's how I see it panning out pending any major surprises. I think the Sooners or Irish will be left out, which are the two I listed that probably don't fully control their own destiny.
 


mnsportsgeek said:
I went through this yesterday with a buddy. I have 8 teams that pretty much control their own destiny:

Florida
Alabama
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Ohio State
Michigan State
Stanford

Winner of Florida/Bama is in.
Winner of ND/Stanford is in.
Big 10 champ is in.
Winner of Oklahoma/Ok State is in.

That's how I see it.
Click to expand...

I don't think MSU controls its own destiny. There is a lot of talk of a 1-loss B1G potentially getting left out.
 

Interesting thoughts from all of you. I'm not sold on Notre Dame, whose calling card is, "We have the best quality loss." Stanford will beat Notre Dame in a couple weeks and knock out the Irish.

Still hoping both Florida gets dumped by FSU, and then Alabama loses @ Auburn or to the Gators in the SEC title game. That would most certainly leave the SEC out of the CFP.
 

BarnBoy said:
I don't think MSU controls its own destiny. There is a lot of talk of a 1-loss B1G potentially getting left out.
Click to expand...

I think beating #3 OSU and potentially #4-5 Iowa in 3 weeks would get them the nod. If Iowa loses to Nebraska that could kill MSU's chances though. I'm just assuming no major upsets since if teams start choking games that shakes up the whole CFP picture.
 

BarnBoy said:
I don't think MSU controls its own destiny. There is a lot of talk of a 1-loss B1G potentially getting left out.
Click to expand...

I would agree with that, though I don't think Sparty would need a lot of help, maybe just 1 of these 3 things to happen?

1. Clemson loses, that in turn kind of hurts Notre Dame.

2. Oklahoma/Oklahoma State winner loses its other game (Sparty for sure would be ahead of 11-1 Ok State, 50/50 maybe vs. 11-1 OU)

3. Notre Dame loses to Stanford. 12-1 MSU vs. 11-1 Notre Dame would test the committee big-time. Irish with the much better loss, but Sparty would be a conference champion with more quality wins. ... 3 which occurred on the road (Michigan, OSU) or a neutral site (Iowa), not to mention a home win over potentially 9-3 Oregon.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Still hoping both Florida gets dumped by FSU, and then Alabama loses @ Auburn or to the Gators in the SEC title game. That would most certainly leave the SEC out of the CFP.
Click to expand...

My god that would be beautiful. Finebaum would be must-see/listen.

War damn Eagle.
 

BarnBoy said:
I don't think MSU controls its own destiny. There is a lot of talk of a 1-loss B1G potentially getting left out.
Click to expand...

If MSU beats both OSU and Iowa in the next 3 weeks it would be tough to justify keeping them out. That said, if Cook is dinged at all I don't see them winning in the horseshoe. They may not 100% control their own destiny but they could at least make it really hard on the committee to pass on them.
 

Don't sleep on Florida. If they can go into the conference championship game with only one loss and beat Alabama would that be enough to get them in?
 




badgergopher said:
Who outside of South Bend really wants to see ND play Clemson again?
Click to expand...

Me (an Irish fan because I grew up without cable and watched the Irish on channel 11 much more than the Gophers as a kid) and my wife, (a Gamecock who loathes Clemson) would be thrilled to see the Irish get another chance.
 

If Navy wins out, will they make a New year's six bowl. Would be fun to see a service academy in one of those games again
 

bemidjigopher said:
If Navy wins out, will they make a New year's six bowl. Would be fun to see a service academy in one of those games again
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If Navy wins out, they are absolutely in a New Year's Six bowl. Same can be said for Houston. The winner of that game has to also win the American Conference title game (probably against Temple) to be eligible, so if they get upset, it opens the door for the winner of tonight's Toledo-Bowling Green game.
 

Is Harbaugh the only reason Michigan is still included?
 

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