15 teams for 7 spots

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SelectionSunday

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As of this morning (through games played Saturday), I have narrowed the bubble down considerably. I have 15 teams fighting for 7 available at-large bids. The Gophers are among the 15 that I don't have locked in.

Will post my latest "Road to Selection Sunday: Field of 68 Projection" either late tonight (after most of today's results are in) or early Monday morning. Here are the 15 teams jostling for those 7 bids:

1. Boston College (ACC)
2. Butler (Horizon)
3. Colorado State (Mountain West)
4. Gonzaga (WCC)
5. Marquette (Big East)
6. Memphis (C-USA)
7. Michigan (Big 10)
8. MINNESOTA (Big 10)
9. Nebraska (Big 12)
10. Penn State (Big 10)
11. Richmond (A-10)
12. Southern Miss (C-USA)
13. UAB (C-USA)
14. VCU (Colonial)
15. Virginia Tech (ACC)

If you have any bubble questions/queries throughout the day, I'll be around to discuss.
 

SS...are these in any order or just a list?

If not ordered...can you share with us your order of in/out?

Thanks.
 

These are in alpha order.

I want to see today's results (most specifically PSU @ Bucky) before I figure out the final at-larges, but for sure Boston College & Gonzaga will be 2 of the 7. Penn State will be in if they beat Bucky today, still out if they lose.

Southern Miss, UAB, Michigan, Marquette and Nebraska won't be in no matter what happens today, but with the softness of the bubble they're not that far off.
 

Subtract the Gophers from this list SS

Won't happen this year. Not good enough. And there should be no complaints when they don't make it.
 

Block M said:
Won't happen this year. Not good enough. And there should be no complaints when they don't make it.
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Which Gophers? The one with Nolen, Joseph, and Walker healthy beat some pretty good teams.

Even the current Gopher team has a chance to make it.
 



Block M, are there any other teams I should cross off the list? What can you tell me about some of the other teams on this list?
 

SelectionSunday said:
Block M, are there any other teams I should cross off the list? What can you tell me about some of the other teams on this list?
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Thanks SS- I long for coming years that we don't have to worry about this list but I love that you do this. The Gophers have about as good a chance as any bubble team to prove that we really belong. No ranked opponents and three home games. Right now it appears that a 3-1 finish is the magic number or at least a 90% chance. 4-0 a lock. Yes? Winning those three home games-all against bubblers- huge.
 

Generally an optimistic poster on this board, but this is the biggest disappointment in Tubby's 4-years at MN. Not blaming him, though I think playing Hoffarber at PG has been a poor idea.
 



3-1 should be enough

3-1 likely will be enough. I'd be even more comfortable if MSU (a likely top-50 win) was one of those three wins.

4-0 certainly will erase any doubt, but I don't think that's realistic the way we're playing. 3-1 is doable, especially with the 3 home games and the fact that the remaining road game is NW. No offense to a solid NW squad, but if we can't win that game with something on the line, then we're truly not that good, anyways.
 

It's been disappointing with Hoff at the point (and thus, no Hoff at the 2) no argument, but the options are few. All combinations have been tried at one point or another with less than desirable results. What you see is who we are. Hopefully Tubby still has a few tricks up his sleeve for adjustments.
 

Updated @ 2:15 p.m. (now 16 teams for 8 bids)

Florida's win over LSU makes Gators the SEC's automatic bid. Alabama no longer an automatic and now is one of the 16 fighting for the last 8 bids.
 

SelectionSunday said:
3-1 likely will be enough. I'd be even more comfortable if MSU (a likely top-50 win) was one of those three wins.

4-0 certainly will erase any doubt, but I don't think that's realistic the way we're playing. 3-1 is doable, especially with the 3 home games and the fact that the remaining road game is NW. No offense to a solid NW squad, but if we can't win that game with something on the line, then we're truly not that good, anyways.
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I feel like with the way this team is going right now, anything is possible, from 4-0 to 0-4 or any variation between. We just have slim to no margin of error anymore, given how short-handed this team is, so as the loss to Indiana proved, we can be beaten by anyone.

If we split our last 4 games, that would mean we'd have lost 7 of our final 10 regular season games, so we'd have to see how much weight the committee would put on that kind of end of season slump, and the only way to avoid that from happening would be for us to make some noise in the B10 tournament.

I have a feeling no matter what it's going to be tough and going to be a dogfight right down to the bitter end. With the lack of point guard, lack of shooters (beyond Hoffharber), and inability to convert free throws (again, beyond Hoffharber, who's hitting 82%, but our team as a whole is barely hitting on 65% of their FT's, which is almost inexcusable), I don't see us blowing anyone out of the gym at this point. I feel like any wins we might get are more likely to be of the nail-biting variety than not.
 



Sunday

SelectionSunday said:
Florida's win over LSU makes Gators the SEC's automatic bid. Alabama no longer an automatic and now is one of the 16 fighting for the last 8 bids.
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The SEC does not give the automatic to their tourney winner?

:confused:
 

Until the conference tourneys are played, the conference leader is the assumed automatic bid.
 

Sunday

SelectionSunday said:
Until the conference tourneys are played, the conference leader is the assumed automatic bid.
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AOK. I bet you explained that somewhere along the line.

Thanks for your threads. I always find them of interest.

:)
 

SelectionSunday said:
3-1 likely will be enough. I'd be even more comfortable if MSU (a likely top-50 win) was one of those three wins.
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Isn't Michigan State only in the 40's or something though? Would beating them knock them out of the top 50?
 

I don't think losing to a team in the top 40 on the road (Gophers) would drop MSU much.
 

Who are the 1 bid league leaders that would get at large bids if they failed to win their conference tourneys?

If there are 4 of them, then those 15 teams are fighting for somewhere between 4-8 spots. If there is 2 it is somewhere between 6-8 bids.
 

Potential bid-stealers (WAC)

Rosemountian said:
Who are the 1 bid league leaders that would get at large bids if they failed to win their conference tourneys?
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It doesn't appear there will be as many potential "bid-stealers" as in years past. The only one I can think of is Utah State in the WAC. Utah State's resume isn't that great, but I think they'll get an at-large bid if they don't win the WAC tourney, especially after winning @ St. Mary's in the Bracket Busters.

As far as other potential bid-stealers, I think we're looking at the:

A-10: anyone other than Xavier or Temple (and perhaps Richmond);

Colonial: anyone other than George Mason or Old Dominion (and perhaps VCU);

Conference USA: anyone other than (perhaps) Memphis;

Horizon: probably want Butler to win the tourney because it has the best chance at an at-large;

Pac 10: anyone other than Arizona, Washington or UCLA; and the

WCC: anyone other than St. Mary's or perhaps Gonzaga.
 

SelectionSunday said:
It doesn't appear there will be as many potential "bid-stealers" as in years past. The only one I can think of is Utah State in the WAC. Utah State's resume isn't that great, but I think they'll get an at-large bid if they don't win the WAC tourney, especially after winning @ St. Mary's in the Bracket Busters.

As far as other potential bid-stealers, I think we're looking at the:

A-10: anyone other than Xavier or Temple (and perhaps Richmond);

Colonial: anyone other than George Mason or Old Dominion (and perhaps VCU);

Conference USA: anyone other than (perhaps) Memphis;

Horizon: probably want Butler to win the tourney because it has the best chance at an at-large;

Pac 10: anyone other than Arizona, Washington or UCLA; and the

WCC: anyone other than St. Mary's or perhaps Gonzaga.
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How about the Missouri Valley if Northern Iowa were to win the tournament. Wouldn't one of their potential co champs have a shot?

Edit: Sorry, should have read the article before asking the question.
 

A good question though, GV. The Missouri Valley is a possibility, I suppose, that's one I should have included. But I just can't see the resumes of Missouri State or (especially) Wichita State being worthy of an at-large bid. I suppose Missouri State would be a possibility if they complete the sweep of Wichita State this week and then advance to the MVC title game.

I really, really, really dislike Wichita's State resume. They should not be talked about as a legitimate at-large, even if they end up as the MVC regular-season champion. They've choked in all their biggest games, all of 'em (Missouri State, UNI & VCU) at home.
 

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