112 of 116 teams that were 10-8 made the NCAA

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I heard them mention this stat on the B10 postgame. IF and a big IF of course the Gophers go 10-8 are we saying they have a chance?
 

Blizzard said:
I heard them mention this stat on the B10 postgame. IF and a big IF of course the Gophers go 10-8 are we saying they have a chance?
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Of course they do; at least if they win at least one in the BTT.
 

Blizzard said:
I heard them mention this stat on the B10 postgame. IF and a big IF of course the Gophers go 10-8 are we saying they have a chance?
Click to expand...

Here's an important question: Is it 112 of 116 Big Ten teams that finished 10-8 or better? If so that means at least 80-85% of the qualifiers finished better than 10-8. So now you are dealing with something closer to a 4 in 25 situation. So the odds are still good but to be sure you need one BTT win and perhaps two.
 

10-8.....

means dancing....provided we don't lose to a lower seed in theh BTT. We would either have a win over #3 Purdue. or two additional roads wins over decent teams. (Ill, Mich)
 

That is a very favorable stat. Keep in mind, we win 3 more games to get to 10 wins in big ten play, we will also have a lot of momentum on our side. The NCAA committee will certaintly consider that also.
 


bga1 said:
Here's an important question: Is it 112 of 116 Big Ten teams that finished 10-8 or better? If so that means at least 80-85% of the qualifiers finished better than 10-8. So now you are dealing with something closer to a 4 in 25 situation. So the odds are still good but to be sure you need one BTT win and perhaps two.
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The 18 game format was introduced for the '92-'93 season, meaning there have been 17 seasons prior to this one. 116/17 = 6.8. I really doubt that 6.8 teams per year have finished 10-8, so it must include all the teams that finished better than 10-8.
 

Never the less the Gophers are one of those four teams not to make it.

If my memory serves me right the Gophers were the first 9-9 Big 10 team to not make the dance since they went to 64 teams. They were also the first to go 10-8 and not make it.
 

station19 said:
Never the less the Gophers are one of those four teams not to make it.

If my memory serves me right the Gophers were the first 9-9 Big 10 team to not make the dance since they went to 64 teams. They were also the first to go 10-8 and not make it.
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I think you are correct there. I think we were 10-8 in the 90's sometime and got the shaft, but if I remember correctly we palyed a horrible NC schedule and did not have many good wins during the year.
 

If we go 10-8, we would end the year with a lot more impressive wins that last year. The difference last year was that we didn't have the really bad losses like we do this year. If we finished 10-8, would our resume look better or worse than last year? Either way our OOC was better last year (even though we had only 1 really legit OOF), but do we make up for it with a better BT record (obviously a what if situation in which we're 10-8) and a BT record with more impressive wins? Basically what I'm trying to say...how does the selection committee weigh the importance of not having bad losses vs. the importance of having signature wins? Our good wins are better wins this year, but our bad losses are way worse this year.

Also, how does 9-9 last year compare to 10-8 this year? Last year the conference was much deeper, but the teams dropped off a lot more after Mich St. and Purdue. I guess I'm ignoring the BT tournament here too... and starting to ramble...
 



Blizzard said:
I heard them mention this stat on the B10 postgame. IF and a big IF of course the Gophers go 10-8 are we saying they have a chance?
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Hahah great vid. One of my favorite movies of all time.

Jeshurun said:
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There was a time when 10-8 or even 9-9 was a lock. It's not anymore. Yes the Gophers were the first team with a 10-8 record not to make it in 1996. Every expert said we were in if we beat Illinois on the last day. We did. They were wrong. If we were 12-0 NC this year, then even 9-9 would probably be enough. But we weren't.

I think 10-8 with at least a 1st round win in the BTT gives us a chance especially if we beat Purdue. That would give us 4 very good wins over Butler, OSU, Wisconsin and Purdue. But our RPI would still likely be in the upper 50's or lower 60's. That's not a good RPI for a bubble team. Also, IIRC the Selection Committee no longer looks at 'last 10 games' as a criteria. That doesn't mean it won't impact thier opinions, but they are not supposed to weight those games differently then those in November.

I would maintain that if we end up 10-8 we have to win 2 BTT games and reach the semi-finals to have a decent shot. Just winning the opening day game would give us a chance, but not a very good one.
 

Statistical Information on Big Ten in NCAA

So, I was really bored tonight, so I went through the Big Ten standings since 1985, and here's what I found:

  • Since 1985 (25 years), there were 131 teams that finished above .500 in the Big Ten (5.24 per year). In 10 of the 25 years, the Big Ten played only 16 games, allowing for a 9-7 Big Ten record above .500
  • In that same time, there were 140 Big Ten teams that made the NCAA tournament
  • There were 10 teams that finished above .500 during that span that missed the NCAA tourney; however, three of these teams were not invited to either tournament due to infractions off the court, making this only seven teams that technically could have been invited to the NCAA tournament, but were not.
  • This means that 94.6% of eligible teams that had a record above .500 in the Big Ten have been invited to the 64-team tournament
  • There were 13 teams that finished at .500 that made the NCAA Tourney during that span; however, one of these teams was not invited to either tournament due to infractions off the court, making this only 12 teams that technically could have been invited to the NCAA tournament, but were not
  • There were 6 teams that finished below .500 in the Big Ten that made the NCAA Tourney during that span (Indiana-1989, Wisconsin-1994, Purdue-1999, Iowa-2001, Penn State-2001, and Iowa-2005)
  • Minnesota has made the NCAA Tournament three times in which they finished with a .500 record in the Big Ten, but never with a record below .500 (1989 (they were 9-9), 1999 (they were 8-8), and 2009 (they were 9-9)
  • Minnesota has finished at .500 or above three times and has missed the NCAA Tournament (1993 (they were 9-9), 1996 (they were 10-8), and 2002 (they were 9-7)

What does this tell us? Nothing really about this year in particular, but in the past, the NCAA has credited more teams finishing at (or even below) .500 in the Big Ten than they have punished teams that have finished at or above .500. Does this mean I think going 9-9 in the Big Ten is the be-all-end-all for the NCAA tournament for us? No, but I think 10-8 would make it more difficult to keep us out than many think, perhaps. The percentage of 94.6% is a tough number to argue with, after all...
 



9-9 or 10-8, my additional concern, is that last year the team won 4 games against teams that finished above them in the standings, a win against Purdue only gets them to three, a win against Illinois gets to 4, tall order. Play like they did against Wisc, should happen, but for Illinois on the road maybe...
 

Look at our RPI, 10-8 is not good enough unless we make it to the BT Tourney final game.
 

Look at our RPI, 10-8 is not good enough unless we make it to the BT Tourney final game.
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I would think somewhere our strength of schedule would balance that out. If we're 10-8 I don't believe we'll need to advance to the final. All of this is contingent of course upon our beating Purdue Wednesday. Tall order to be certain. It would seem though there is a legit chance for us to pull it off, which really, is all we could ask for considering the last several games when we didn't think we had a chance in hell.
 

Some numbers on 10 (regular season) Big Ten wins

The Big Ten went to the 18-game schedule (with a Big Ten Tournament) starting with the 2007-08 season, so there's only two years of data. But here's what has happened with teams that finished 10-8 or better during the regular season.

2007-08: 4 of 5 with a 10-8 record or better made the NCAAs. Ohio State did not make it with a 10-8 record, #49 RPI and an 0-1 Big Ten Tournament record. The Buckeyes finished 5th in the Big Ten standings.

2008-09: 5 of 6 with a 10-8 record or better made the NCAAs. Penn State did not make it with a 10-8 record, #70 RPI and a 1-1 BTT record. The Nitts finished tied for 4th in the Big Ten standings and were the BTT's #6 seed.

So with 2 years of data, 9 of 11 (81.8%) with a record of 10-8 or better made the NCAA Tournament field. To this point, I'd say our at-large profile more resembles Penn State from last season than Ohio State of two seasons ago, though the one big exception is this year's Gophers have a highly significant nonconference win (Butler) that neither Ohio State or Penn State had.
 

Blizzard said:
I would think somewhere our strength of schedule would balance that out. If we're 10-8 I don't believe we'll need to advance to the final. All of this is contingent of course upon our beating Purdue Wednesday. Tall order to be certain. It would seem though there is a legit chance for us to pull it off, which really, is all we could ask for considering the last several games when we didn't think we had a chance in hell.
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Strength of schedule is factored in to the RPI rank. Our schedule is weaker than last year. Last I checked we were more than 30 spots lower this year than last year. If we end up 10-8, I think we are longshots. If we are 10-8 and don't make it to Big Ten final, I would bet money on the Gophers not getting in.
 

lets just go 11-7 and then win one game in the btt. no question. haha
Here is a question though- would it be better for our tournament chances to lose to Purdue and then win out (10-8) or: beat Purdue and then lose to Michigan or Illinois on the road? (still 10-8)
I would think losing to Michigan again or Illinois would be a killer, but what do you think?
 

Beating Purdue is the part of the 10-8 equation we must have. Split the Illinois-Michigan road trip (given a choice preferably the win is Illinois, would give us a shot at bye and #5 seed), then beat Iowa. Losing twice to Michigan isn't good, but it wouldn't kill us. It's not like they're in the 200's like Indiana. 10-8 with a win over Purdue and we'll have a fighting chance for an at-large bid heading to Indy, depending on what we do there. Considering where we were a week ago, I'd take that in a hearbeat.
 

I think Purdue is a must win game. Its the one that would count the most when comparing bubble teams. If we lose to Purdue and go 10-8, even reaching the Big Ten final (and losing) might not be enough.
 

we would have to win three games to win the big ten tournament right?
 

not that that has any chance of happening
 


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