Penn State has 10 wins time against the Gophers.
They have won by: 18, 53, 1, 10, 30, 1, 20, 12, 3 and 28. So 80% of their wins are by 2 scores. And several by 3+ scores.
Gopher wins are must closer. 1, 9, 6, 9, 14 and 5.
So based on history their guess is pretty solid.