Long analysis. Thinks Ball could really open things up offensively, especially catch and shoot 3’s. Thinks LaMelo can stay healthy with reduced minutes and lock in defensively once playoffs arrive.
The LaMelo Ant backcourt should terrify the NBA: a power forward case study.In full disclosure, I was planning on writing about the importance of playmaking to match the new size this week anyway. I adapted to the recent trade.Dumping Julius Randle gave the Wolves cap flexibility to make a splash trade to acquire LaMelo Ball from the Hornets. This is exactly what the Timberwolves needed around Anthony Edwards. I described earlier this week how the Wolves need a PG who can shoot and handle the ball. I did not think LaMelo was even an option, and he fits that mold perfectly. For the record, I am generally a skeptic of making splash moves. I prefer roster flexibility and draft picks, but even for me, this is an exception. This fit works even better after the draft this week and the trends from the picks.This trend looks at the power forward position. Remember your older brother’s power forwards from the 2010s: David West, Paul Millsap, Serge Ibaka, Carlos Boozer. Better versions were Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge. Most of these guys fit the description of big, good rebounder, can be a secondary post defender, can kind of shoot but no threes.What happened to this archetype? The Golden State Warriors and Draymond Green. The Warriors changed the game with their passing, motion, and shooting, making that big power forward inefficient, old, and slow. Before the Wolves tried to use two bigs, KAT and Rudy, and started the size trend again in a way, power forwards came in all shapes and sizes. From Jayson Tatum, a large small forward who mostly plays on the perimeter, Jaren Jackson Jr., a center’s body who prefers to play as a help defender, a former DPOY who somehow can't rebound. Draymond Green, relatively small but, in my opinion, the second best defender since 2010. Very smart, can switch everything. He can guard on the perimeter and is strong enough to guard smaller bigs.Don’t look now, but the power forward and big frontcourt are returning. Looking just in the West, I will list a few big projected starting 3-5s:OKC: J-Dub 6'5, Chet Holmgren 7'1, Isaiah Hartenstein 7'0.Utah: Lauri Markkanen 7'1, Jaren Jackson Jr. 6'10, Walker Kessler 7'2.Portland: Deni Avdija 6'8, Toumani Camara 6'7, Donovan Clingan 7'2.Spurs: Wemby 7'4, plus their bigger guards.Houston: Amen Thompson 6'7, Kevin Durant 6'11, Jabari Smith Jr. 6'11, Alperen Sengun 6'11.Dallas: Morez Johnson Jr. 6'9, Cooper Flagg 6'9, Dereck Lively II 7'1.Grizzlies: Cameron Boozer 6'9 and Zach Edey 7'3.That is 7 out of the other 14 Western Conference teams projected to start a very tall frontcourt. Size is back in the NBA, likely due to competing with Wemby.If the trend is to go big, why did the Wolves send their projected starting power forward and all their remaining draft assets to go trade for a point guard? The answer is what Steve Kerr and the Warriors did to make the NBA small a decade ago. The Warriors changed the game with a dynamic backcourt that shot and made more threes than any other backcourt up to that point. But their small lineup that defended and made these bigs run around the court changed the game. Since then, the three ball is something all teams had to incorporate, but they forgot what made these Warriors teams special, and that was their passing.The last two regular seasons, the Oklahoma City Thunder were the league’s best defense in terms of net rating. They typically started a very tall lead guard in SGA, a big wing defender in Lu Dort, a big do-it-all wing in Jalen Williams, a tall three and post D player in Chet Holmgren, and a center in Isiah Hartenstein. The Thunder went big, and the league followed. Yes, the Thunder have good depth, but their starting lineup is elite. What were the teams that made this Thunder team struggle? It was not the Wolves, the iso heavy, not a lot of passing, slow Timberwolves.It was the Denver Nuggets and the Indiana Pacers. What do both of these teams have? An elite one of one playmaker and a team that is built around that. Tyrese Haliburton and Nikola Jokic, and their playmaking, are what make these big teams struggle. Their creative motion puts these defenders in bad situations. Jokic has gotten the better of Wemby in their limited matchups, and KAT's playmaking also has made Wemby look human. Meanwhile Indiana ran through the east last season and took the Thunder to 7 with Hali getting hurt in game 7. There is a legit world where they win the finals last year. What does this have to do with LaMelo? Last season, the Wolves had a creation issue. Their assist leader was Julius Randle with a measly 4 a game. Ant was doubled a lot and did not have the playmaking to make the defense pay. The Wolves were a bottom 6 team in catch and shoot attempts per game but were top 5 in catch and shoot shooting percentage. Meanwhile, the Hornets were 6th in attempts. Most of that was LaMelo’s ability as a ball handler to create space and passing to take advantage. Now add this to the Wolves, who are an elite catch and shoot team. Ant shoots almost 50% on catch and shoot threes. Ayo can make them as well. At this point, the fifth starter is unknown, but the gravity generated by the backcourt can help both Jaden and Rudy unlock their offense. Jaden will get the ball in more opportune times, plus throwing lobs to Rudy. The Wolves already have the pieces for a top-5 offense, and Rudy and Jaden to stabilize a top-10 defense. Opponents will really struggle against going big against the Wolves. The lineup they can run of Ball, Ant, Ayo, Jaden, and Rudy can pass, move, and make these bigs look slow. If Finch can unlock this, the bigs of the West will not have a fun time playing the Wolves.The three concerns I have seen about LaMelo are maturity, injuries, and defense. To start with maturity, Ball is only 24; he has time to develop this. At the start of his time with the Hornets, the franchise was dysfunctional. His vets were Bismack Biyombo and Gordon Hayward. He had multiple head coaches and finally had a taste of success this season. Compared to Minnesota, Rudy has a well-documented history of taking care of his body, Mike Conley, if he stays, is a great vet, and Ant is one of the hardest workers in the NBA. Plus, a great coach in Chris Finch at keeping a culture. I think the Wolves ecosystem can help him mature into a winning player. Injuries have plagued LaMelo at this point of his career. This season, he played the most games, and he also played the least minutes per game. That has to be the recipe: contain his minutes, and he should stay healthier. Along with the Wolves having an elite medical staff, I trust they know this. The Wolves are also exploring bringing back Conley and Bones. They already have Ant and Ayo locked up. Minnesota has the guard depth to limit his minutes and keep him healthy and fresh.LaMelo's defense has never been great. He does have the size you want in a big guard. This is my biggest concern, but this move is about the playoffs, where intensity brings out the best. If he can’t lock in during the playoffs defensively, he is likely a lost cause, but with the Wolves, I think it can work.This season is the most excited I think I have ever been for a Timberwolves season in my life. This is a roster that can win at the highest level, and I think it can change the game.