Big Ten Basketball 2026-27 Standings Outlook

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MNVCGUY said:
NCAA tournament predictions in April....the basketball equivalent to pre-season bowl predictions in football.
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Actually, NCAA tournament is more uncertain because you are dealing with a smaller number of teams in FBS football, football conferences have tie ins to particular bowls, and a larger percentage of FBS football teams make playoffs and bowls than D1 basketball teams make the NCAA tournament.

Basically, what you have to do in preseason assignments of playoff/bowl games is:

1) Decide which teams in each conference are likely to suck and not make it to 6 wins so you can eliminate them;

2) Decide which power conference teams are likely to be the best and assign them to the playoffs;

3) Pick your token G5 playoff team;

4) Determine a likely order of conference finish for bowl teams.

5) Look at which teams went to particular bowls the previous year and try to minimize consecutive appearances.
 


TwistingMyMelon said:
Actually, NCAA tournament is more uncertain because you are dealing with a smaller number of teams in FBS football, football conferences have tie ins to particular bowls, and a larger percentage of FBS football teams make playoffs and bowls than D1 basketball teams make the NCAA tournament.

Basically, what you have to do in preseason assignments of playoff/bowl games is:

1) Decide which teams in each conference are likely to suck and not make it to 6 wins so you can eliminate them;

2) Decide which power conference teams are likely to be the best and assign them to the playoffs;

3) Pick your token G5 playoff team;

4) Determine a likely order of conference finish for bowl teams.

5) Look at which teams went to particular bowls the previous year and try to minimize consecutive appearances.
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All true and yet we have tracked it on the football side and the picks are worthless for the most part until you get very close to the actual selection day.

But yeah, at least there are some constraints on the football side. Predicting the NCAA tournament right now is almost completely throwing darts at a board.

Off season fluff, something to look at during the long layoff waiting for things to start up again, just silly to put any stock in it or believe it is accurate. It is all just guesses, sometimes educated other times not.... :)
 

MNVCGUY said:
Fit is important in all sports but in basketball it is vital. It's why a team like Rutgers could have 2 lottery picks and miss the NCAA tournament 24-25 and it is also why our 6 man roster could compete in the Big Ten in spite of being out matched in nearly every way.
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Your so right. Most of the fab teams that Kentucky and Duke have had don't usually get there unless they are combined with a few veteran role players willing to do the dirty work. Or sometimes, in Kentucky and North Carolina's case, all athletic players but sometimes no great 3 pt shooters. Michigan super experienced this year, Florida last year, 3 sr guards. Uconn had Netwon, Spencer and Jackson to combine with their Freshmen.

How the Gophers even completed on the boards is crazy, it amounted to our posts blocking out their guy and letting the guards gather the actual rebounds. The negative, we were rarely able to release a guard for a potential fast break the other way. I hope we can play a variety of ways. We can't lose 3 starters to injury 2 years in a row right, right?
 

march madness said:
Your so right. Most of the fab teams that Kentucky and Duke have had don't usually get there unless they are combined with a few veteran role players willing to do the dirty work. Or sometimes, in Kentucky and North Carolina's case, all athletic players but sometimes no great 3 pt shooters. Michigan super experienced this year, Florida last year, 3 sr guards. Uconn had Netwon, Spencer and Jackson to combine with their Freshmen.

How the Gophers even completed on the boards is crazy, it amounted to our posts blocking out their guy and letting the guards gather the actual rebounds. The negative, we were rarely able to release a guard for a potential fast break the other way. I hope we can play a variety of ways. We can't lose 3 starters to injury 2 years in a row right, right?
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Injuries are part of the game but what we dealt with last season was off the charts. It wasn't just losing the 3 starters (which was bad enough) it was also having multiple bench options out as well.

Knock on wood, we will never have another season like that in terms of injuries.
 


MNVCGUY said:
All true and yet we have tracked it on the football side and the picks are worthless for the most part until you get very close to the actual selection day.

But yeah, at least there are some constraints on the football side. Predicting the NCAA tournament right now is almost completely throwing darts at a board.

Off season fluff, something to look at during the long layoff waiting for things to start up again, just silly to put any stock in it or believe it is accurate. It is all just guesses, sometimes educated other times not.... :)
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I think you are taking the forecasts too literal. I pay no attention to who they are picking to play in the Pinstripe Bowl or the Mayo Bowl...that is silly, I agree. But what I am curious about: is who is forecast as a bowl team and who is left out?
Basketball...same thing, the seeds beyond the top 2 are meaningless to me...is a team expected to make the tournament at all is what I'm looking for.
 

It feels like with expansion of the tournament making it will be about equal to making the Rate Bowl...or worse.
 


60's Guy said:
Bart Torvik thinks two Big Ten teams are worse than the Gophers... Torvik rankings 2026-27 Big Ten
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Rather than simply regurgitate an aggregated blog post, it would be wise to dig into what Torvik is actually projecting at the moment. When you go the Minnesota page right now, Torvik has assigned a sizable chunk of minutes to BJ Omot, who isn't on the team. Kordel and Groves are not shown on the roster. https://barttorvik.com/rosters27.php?t=Minnesota

Beyond that, it is going to be difficult to project this specific team before any games are played. Any system would struggle with an approach to Evans' projection given the lack of PT he had last year. Yet we know it's very possible to leave UNC and thrive. Further, no system can model him returning to play with a familiar coach.

Grady was a top 100 recruit who was injured and seemingly asked the staff to redshirt.

Kordel sat behind the most talented front court in the country.

No model, no matter how sophisticated, can build a meaningful projection without quality input data.

It is possible the team will not be better next year, but Torvik's current projections are not an indicator one way or the other.
 



Scottsdale Gopher said:
Rather than simply regurgitate an aggregated blog post, it would be wise to dig into what Torvik is actually projecting at the moment. When you go the Minnesota page right now, Torvik has assigned a sizable chunk of minutes to BJ Omot, who isn't on the team. Kordel and Groves are not shown on the roster. https://barttorvik.com/rosters27.php?t=Minnesota

Beyond that, it is going to be difficult to project this specific team before any games are played. Any system would struggle with an approach to Evans' projection given the lack of PT he had last year. Yet we know it's very possible to leave UNC and thrive. Further, no system can model him returning to play with a familiar coach.

Grady was a top 100 recruit who was injured and seemingly asked the staff to redshirt.

Kordel sat behind the most talented front court in the country.

No model, no matter how sophisticated, can build a meaningful projection without quality input data.

It is possible the team will not be better next year, but Torvik's current projections are not an indicator one way or the other.
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100%. Last year "Torvik was wrong about MN", and this year has Palmer with the highest Offensive rating on the team, edging out Grayson Grove. As you noted, Kordel not even listed.
 


Scottsdale Gopher said:
Rather than simply regurgitate an aggregated blog post, it would be wise to dig into what Torvik is actually projecting at the moment. When you go the Minnesota page right now, Torvik has assigned a sizable chunk of minutes to BJ Omot, who isn't on the team. Kordel and Groves are not shown on the roster. https://barttorvik.com/rosters27.php?t=Minnesota

Beyond that, it is going to be difficult to project this specific team before any games are played. Any system would struggle with an approach to Evans' projection given the lack of PT he had last year. Yet we know it's very possible to leave UNC and thrive. Further, no system can model him returning to play with a familiar coach.

Grady was a top 100 recruit who was injured and seemingly asked the staff to redshirt.

Kordel sat behind the most talented front court in the country.

No model, no matter how sophisticated, can build a meaningful projection without quality input data.

It is possible the team will not be better next year, but Torvik's current projections are not an indicator one way or the other.
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If you actually read what I posted...it is up to date and accurate. He has Malachi Palmer included...I'd say that's pretty fresh.
 

SplitDecision said:
100%. Last year "Torvik was wrong about MN", and this year has Palmer with the highest Offensive rating on the team, edging out Grayson Grove. As you noted, Kordel not even listed.
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If you read what I posted...Kordel is listed.
 



combes1 said:
Torvik himself said this is way too early. Rosters are still in flex. He still has Mara and Johnson on Michigan who are likely gone, for example.
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Again, if you actually read what I posted he has Mara and Johnson factored in and noted.
 

60's Guy said:
If you actually read what I posted...it is up to date and accurate. He has Malachi Palmer included...I'd say that's pretty fresh.
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I read the link you shared. You and the writer of the article are simply wrong about how up to date Torvik's T-Rank is at this moment in time. The link you shared is a writer taking current T-Ranks, writing up roster movement, and presenting it as if Torvik has taken all of that into account. But a visit to the Torvik site proves that's not the case as I and other posters have pointed out.

When Torvik does update rosters and playing time, it will be an interesting data point. I will personally still take it with a grain of salt because of the reasons I mentioned in my previous post, YMMV.
 







Scottsdale Gopher said:
I read the link you shared. You and the writer of the article are simply wrong about how up to date Torvik's T-Rank is at this moment in time. The link you shared is a writer taking current T-Ranks, writing up roster movement, and presenting it as if Torvik has taken all of that into account. But a visit to the Torvik site proves that's not the case as I and other posters have pointed out.

When Torvik does update rosters and playing time, it will be an interesting data point. I will personally still take it with a grain of salt because of the reasons I mentioned in my previous post, YMMV.
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Niko is playing "moneyball". Nobody predicted the Oakland As would be successful before the year started. Let's see how this shakes out. Torvik or any of the rest of them are not going to see what is coming. Niko sold me last year and he went out and got size, depth and more shooting for the coming year.
 



bga1 said:
Niko is playing "moneyball". Nobody predicted the Oakland As would be successful before the year started. Let's see how this shakes out. Torvik or any of the rest of them are not going to see what is coming. Niko sold me last year and he went out and got size, depth and more shooting for the coming year.
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I think Niko is a great coach. The Big Ten is full of great coaches. That’s what makes it such a tough league.
 

combes1 said:
I think Niko is a great coach. The Big Ten is full of great coaches. That’s what makes it such a tough league.
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Agree. I think it is easily the most physical conference as well, which has not always translated into NCAA championships. What was just physical play in conference became fouls in the tournament.
 
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bga1 said:
Niko is playing "moneyball". Nobody predicted the Oakland As would be successful before the year started. Let's see how this shakes out. Torvik or any of the rest of them are not going to see what is coming. Niko sold me last year and he went out and got size, depth and more shooting for the coming year.
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Yeah, makes sense that we are going to be an afterthought in most rankings until we actually prove something.

But like you, I was really impressed by what Niko was able to do with what he had available late in the season last year. It shouldn't have worked anywhere close to as well as it did and it gives me a ton of hope for what he will be able to accomplish with a more complete roster that isn't decimated by injuries.
 

Andy Katz Top 44 Rankings After NBA Draft Withdrawls
There are the same 12 Big Ten Teams on everybodys' radar on Andy's list.
Michigan, Illinois, Michigan St
USC, Purdue, Nebraska
Indiana, UCLA, Ohio St
Iowa, Wisconsin, Maryland
He is leaving out Oregon...to finish Top 13 Gophers gotta sneak past one of the above teams.
Rutgers, Penn St, Washington, Northwestern, and Minnesota are in the bottom group.

Do 13 Big Ten teams make the Tournament?
 

I’ll be surprised if we’re not in the top half.
I’d like to be dancing at the end of the season. The top 4 and bottom 4 may separate out from the pack, but the 10 in the middle are a toss up.
 

To me placement is overrated especially with how imbalance the schedules are with so many teams in the league. Believe we are too six or seven in the conference in returning production, so I have a hard time seeing us finishing lower in the standings or with a worse conference record than the decimated roster we had last year. We bring back three starters who averaged double figures in points. Iowa brings a lot back, but they do lose the straw that stirred the drink, but they should be able to at least match that 10-10 mark. Illinois, Sparty and UCLA being a lot back. Indiana and USC have talent, but every off season we talk about how great those two teams have done in the portal, and every year they have chemistry issues because they rarely have enough returning pieces. Michigan brought in a lot of talent too, but May has essentially started all three years now and it's worked, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt Wisconsin will have a nice front court, lots of ??? In the back court and wing spots, no proven production. Nebraska will have shooting, but who will run the show at point? Maryland seems a year away still, and I'm skeptical Payne can stay healthy for them. NW, Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Rutgers, are all pretty devoid of returning talent, factor in the chemistry questions that Ohio State, USC, and Indiana will have, health and depth of Maryland, backcourt issues at Wisconsin, and PG at Nebraska. Purdue will be interesting they lose so much, but Painter been reloading for over a decade now. Point is, we have plenty going for us, three returning starters, a guy transferring in who previously started for Niko on an NCAA team, another transfer who started some games and prominently came off the bench for another NCAA team, I think we will be. Right in the thick of it.
 

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