The Athletic: Why the cost of college football roster building won’t slow down anytime soon

BleedGopher

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Per Morales:

It’s nearly impossible to have a conversation with a college football staffer without the escalating costs of talent acquisition coming up.

We’re less than two years removed from Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork shocking us all — or most of us — when he revealed the Buckeyes spent $20 million on their football roster.

That was only the beginning.

“The new number in our sport right now is $40 million,” an SEC head coach told The Athletic recently. “That’s for the ’26 season. What’s it going to be for the ’27 season? I don’t know, I think if you’re at $40 million this year, I bet you’ll be at $45 million next year.”

“It’s getting up to $35 million-plus, if not $40 million-plus,” said a Big Ten personnel staffer.

A logical response might be: What do you mean by $40 million? I thought there was a revenue-share cap of $20.5 million for student-athletes across all sports?

Well, that rev-share cap was always more of a wholesome wish than an enforceable action.

Spending doesn’t guarantee your program will turn into a winner overnight, but it sure does help. Just look at Indiana and Texas Tech, which have invested at unprecedented levels and have won at … well, unprecedented levels.

Winning is expensive, but the alternative costs a lot more.

“Losing is the most expensive element of our sport,” a Pac-12 assistant coach said. “Winning is far less expensive than losing. Losing, there’s no return on investment. Winning is huge.”

Lose long enough and your fans become apathetic. Attendance sags, donors stop giving money, the environment gets toxic and recruiting becomes difficult. Florida State, which has sputtered under coach Mike Norvell the past two seasons, is dealing with this predicament.

“The more people see that’s the pathway to winning,” the Pac-12 assistant said, “it’s only going to become more intense.”

That’s not to mention that college football is resembling the NFL more and more each day — even though that’s a turnoff for some. In the NFL, players reset the market all the time.

Top transfer offensive tackles were receiving around $1.3 million, but when Colorado’s Jordan Seaton — a former five-star recruit — entered the transfer portal in January, he was expected to earn anywhere between $2 million and $3 million. Seaton landed at LSU, which was an aggressive spender this offseason.

“Our joking motto is ‘Double it,’” the Big Ten personnel staffer said. “Which is what we say every cycle. It’s like whatever you hear, double it. That’s just what it’s going to end up being for a lot of these kids. Whatever we end up paying for this type of kid, next cycle you’re going to have to double it. Trying to compare it to what it was even a year ago at this time is completely different.”

“The more information, the more the market will go up,” a Group of 6 general manager said. “We all think we’re better than what we are, so everybody will look at the market and say, ‘The best quarterback in college football made X amount of money. I’m better than that. I deserve more.’ Even if they aren’t better than that, if they believe that and put themselves out there in the open market, somebody is going to pay a hefty price for it.”


Go Gophers!!
 


As I said in a post on another thread, we will have 100M rosters in a couple years.
 


As I said in a post on another thread, we will have 100M rosters in a couple years.
If by "we" you mean the tip top in all of college football, that's a too far.

$100M might be the entire check that the Big Ten or SEC pays a school in a year. The schools have too many other things they need to spend that money on, to just turn it over entirely to student athletes, let alone turn it over entirely only to football players.
 


we shall see my friend. I would bet more than one school spends 100M Plus on a roster in the next few years.
 

we shall see my friend. I would bet more than one school spends 100M Plus on a roster in the next few years.
$100 million rosters are a possibility, but that would be with donor money included.
 

$100 million rosters are a possibility, but that would be with donor money included.
Rev share capped at $20-25M total for whole athletic dept, let's say around $14-18M for football.

So, 3rd party NIL is going to make up an extra $82-86M ??? That seems a bit too rich.

If so ... shame on people who do that. I hope your money gets set on fire.
 

If the schools are really paying $40M in “NIL” as dubiously reported here the CSC fiasco is even more irritating. The call is from inside the house.
 



Rev share capped at $20-25M total for whole athletic dept, let's say around $14-18M for football.

So, 3rd party NIL is going to make up an extra $82-86M ??? That seems a bit too rich.

If so ... shame on people who do that. I hope your money gets set on fire.
If the current pay for play (NIL) structure is kept, eventually some school is going to hit that mark. Just a few years in and there’s talk of $40 million rosters, so we’re not that far off.

2026 Roster costs:
1Texas Longhorns> $40 million
2LSU Tigers> $40 million
3Ohio State Buckeyes~$35 million
4Texas Tech~$35 million
 


I agree with @GopherGrit and have a tough time imagining a $100 million dollar roster anytime soon.

The revenue sharing cap for 2027 will be ~22.17 million. I don't think it will increase dramatically for 2028 when reevaluated. Also, some of these schools have Alston payment and new scholarship offsets, so the NIL might need to reach 85-86 million.

Even in the craziness of college sports today, that seems like a lot of money. If you are raising 20 million in NIL right now, I would think the next 20 would be more difficult to obtain...but I could be wrong.
 

I agree with @GopherGrit and have a tough time imagining a $100 million dollar roster anytime soon.

The revenue sharing cap for 2027 will be ~22.17 million. I don't think it will increase dramatically for 2028 when reevaluated. Also, some of these schools have Alston payment and new scholarship offsets, so the NIL might need to reach 85-86 million.

Even in the craziness of college sports today, that seems like a lot of money. If you are raising 20 million in NIL right now, I would think the next 20 would be more difficult to obtain...but I could be wrong.
Progressively harder plus smaller groups to bid against as you keep moving up dollar amounts.
 



The cap, after the initial three years of 4% increases (figure around a million) will be reset to the average revenue across the power 5 conference teams. OSU generating massive revenue isn’t going to dent the overall revenue average that much, I’d think. So where is this $40M number coming from given mid tier teams like Iowa bring in roughly 3-4M in collective fan NIL (2024 tax return numbers). Genuinely interested?

I continue to think there are multi-year contracts being written with zero funding behind them, just hope and desperation. I wonder if any lawsuits will see daylight.
 

So, 3rd party NIL is going to make up an extra $82-86M ??? That seems a bit too rich.

If so ... shame on people who do that. I hope your money gets set on fire.
You are one of the last posters who I'd expect would be advocating for the ultra-wealthy to not share their money with others.
 

You are one of the last posters who I'd expect would be advocating for the ultra-wealthy to not share their money with others.
I don't like the idea of fans directly footing the bill for player payments. It doesn't make sense in the NFL, and just the same it doesn't make sense for college.
 





I wonder if we get to a breaking point with these donors where they no longer want to give out the big bucks anymore because they aren't getting the return they want (there's only one champion each year). Like it's the new and exciting thing to do right now, buy a big time roster. But over time that excitement wears off.
 

IMO they’ll just plan and spend for the next year/opportunity. Gambler mentality. As opposed to a nekton mentality. Always spending and losing, never stop because today’s the day.
 

I wonder if we get to a breaking point with these donors where they no longer want to give out the big bucks anymore because they aren't getting the return they want (there's only one champion each year). Like it's the new and exciting thing to do right now, buy a big time roster. But over time that excitement wears off.
Honestly to me that is the area where the growth could slow. Don’t know that it will but I think this is the area that could have a large effect.
 

In general, I believe donor money will shrink moe and more going forward. That leads to the question of where the money will come from. I think a 100 million roster will never be seen, there is a ceiling to all of this and it is lower than 100 million dollars. Judging from the decreasing numbers of children playing football, how could all of this be sustainable?
 

Who should pay?
According to ChatGPT (I have not verified further), the NFL distributes over $400M to each team per year from sharing revenues over: national TV/media deals, league-wide sponsorships, NFL licensing/merchandise deals, NFL Network revenues, post-season revenues, and international games.

That pays the entire team salary before an owner would even need to look at ticket sales.

I see no reason why college should not be the same, at least in the Big Ten.
 

Unsuspecting cable subscribers
No such thing. If you choose to purchase that produce you know exactly which channels you're paying for.

YouTubeTV and others are now offering customers the ability to purchase channel packages without sports channels.
 

I wonder if we get to a breaking point with these donors where they no longer want to give out the big bucks anymore because they aren't getting the return they want (there's only one champion each year). Like it's the new and exciting thing to do right now, buy a big time roster. But over time that excitement wears off.
On one hand, T Boone Pickens donated to Oklahoma State right to the bitter end. Never got to seem them win a natty for his money.

They easily could have in 2011. They went 11-1 and so ended up ranked #3 in the BCS, back when only two top two ranked teams played in a single one-off natty game, before there was any playoff. Not to be.


But anyway, I agree with you.

Say Cody Campbell dumps money on Texas Tech every year for the next 10 years, but they never make it past the CFP semi's. Why keep doing it for another 10, 20 years?


The problem is that if money can buy you a championship at a place like Indiana, then it can happen literally anywhere.
 

On one hand, T Boone Pickens donated to Oklahoma State right to the bitter end. Never got to seem them win a natty for his money.

They easily could have in 2011. They went 11-1 and so ended up ranked #3 in the BCS, back when only two top two ranked teams played in a single one-off natty game, before there was any playoff. Not to be.


But anyway, I agree with you.

Say Cody Campbell dumps money on Texas Tech every year for the next 10 years, but they never make it past the CFP semi's. Why keep doing it for another 10, 20 years?


The problem is that if money can buy you a championship at a place like Indiana, then it can happen literally anywhere.

Money was only part of Indiana winning the National Championship. I'm sure any team could afford the Hoosier player who blocked the critical punt against the Hurricanes.
 

I wonder if we get to a breaking point with these donors where they no longer want to give out the big bucks anymore because they aren't getting the return they want (there's only one champion each year). Like it's the new and exciting thing to do right now, buy a big time roster. But over time that excitement wears off.
Yeah, people eventually stopped buying pet rocks for the same reason.
 

According to ChatGPT (I have not verified further), the NFL distributes over $400M to each team per year from sharing revenues over: national TV/media deals, league-wide sponsorships, NFL licensing/merchandise deals, NFL Network revenues, post-season revenues, and international games.

That pays the entire team salary before an owner would even need to look at ticket sales.

I see no reason why college should not be the same, at least in the Big Ten.
Exactly, agree. So the fans that get the streaming services, buy sports packages, or get the cable packages, or buy the merch end up paying?
 




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