All Things 1-Bid League Potential NIT Invitees (through Saturday, March 14th)

(see below)

This might be the final Bubblicious Board report. Saturday morning TBD. Either way, I'll be back in the wee hours of Selection Sunday morning with my final Field of 68 projection.

BUBBLICIOUS BOARD REPORT (through Thursday, March 12)
Automatic Bid Placeholders (31) = 31 (ALL CAPS BOLD ITALIC = earned automatic bid)
America East: #1 UMBC
American: #1 South Florida
ACC: #1 Duke
ASUN: #3 QUEENS
Atlantic 10: #1 Saint Louis
Big East: #1 Saint John's
Big Sky: #7 IDAHO
Big South: #1 HIGH POINT
Big Ten: #1 Michigan
Big XII: #1 Arizona
Big West: #1 UC-Irvine
Coastal: #3 HOFSTRA
Conference USA: #2 Sam Houston
Horizon: #1 WRIGHT STATE
Ivy: #1 Yale
MAAC: #3 SIENA
MAC: #2 Akron
MEAC: #1 Howard
Missouri Valley: #6 NORTHERN IOWA
Mountain West: #1 Utah State
NEC: #1 LIU
OVC: #1 TENNESSEE STATE
Patriot: #2 LEHIGH
SEC: #1 Florida
SoCon: #6 FURMAN
Southland: #2 McNEESE
SWAC: #2 Florida A&M
Summit: #1 NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Sun Belt: #1 TROY
WCC: #1 GONZAGA
WAC: #1 Utah Valley

At-Large Locks (33) = 64
Alabama
Arkansas
BYU
Clemson
Georgia
Houston
Illinois
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Miami (FL)
Michigan State
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
NC State
Ohio State
Purdue
Saint Mary's
Santa Clara
Tennessee
Texas A&M
TCU
Texas Tech
UCF
UCLA
UConn
Vanderbilt
Villanova
Virginia
Wisconsin

On the Bubble (7) -- for 4 available bids
#37 SMU (season complete)
#42 Texas (season complete)
#44 VCU
#45 New Mexico
#46 San Diego State
#47 Oklahoma
#64 Miami U (season complete)

Eliminated from Consideration (7)
#39 Auburn (season complete)
#41 Indiana (season complete)
#49 Cincinnati (season complete)
#55 Virginia Tech (season complete)
#60 Boise State (season complete)
#61 Stanford (season complete)
#68 Cal (season complete)

Shifting the conversation to the NIT as it pertains to St. Thomas. ....

Potential NIT Invitees from Traditional 1-Bid Leagues
The 2025 NIT included 15 invitees (nearly half of the 32-team field) from conferences that perennially only get one bid to the NCAA Tournament. With St. Thomas no longer in the running for a NCAA Tournament bid, we'll track one-bid league potential participants for the 2026 NIT field as they are eliminated from conference tournaments. The list only will include teams with a NET ranking of #150 or lower. That's probably a little generous but want to make the list is as wide-ranging as possible.

We currently have 17 non-committed through March 12. I have added Miami U even though I think the RedHawks will receive an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney. Regular season conference champions are noted in bold/italic.

9 NIT INVITATIONS FROM THESE 17?
#64 Miami U (MAC)
#95 Illinois State (Missouri Valley)
#103 St. Thomas (Summit)
#105 Murray State (Missouri Valley)
#111 UIC (Missouri Valley)
#113 Bradley (Missouri Valley)
#120 Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley)
#124 UC-San Diego (Big West)
#126 UTRGV (Southland)
#128 Montana State (Big Sky)
#129 William & Mary (Coastal)
#130 Winthrop (Big South)
#138 East Tennessee State (SoCon)
#142 UCSB (Big West)
#147 Portland State (Big Sky)
#148 Robert Morris (Horizon)
#149 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

Bids Accepted (6 of 32)
#63 Belmont (Missouri Valley)
#90 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
#96 UNC-Wilmington (Coastal)
#106 Liberty (Conference USA)
#135 Navy (Patriot)
#188 South Alabama (Sun Belt)

Friday Pick to Click (68-58, 54%, L-1 streak) (post-Super Bowl 14-18, 43.8%)
North Texas +8.5 vs. Tulsa

So do the Akron Zips get an at large if they don’t win the MAC? I’m absolutely giving the nod to Miami but one never knows with the committee?

Holy Man said:

So do the Akron Zips get an at large if they don’t win the MAC? I’m absolutely giving the nod to Miami but one never knows with the committee?

Click to expand...

I can’t see Akron getting an at-large. That would mean a 3-bid MAC. That’s not happening!

SelectionSunday said:

I can’t see Akron getting an at-large. That would mean a 3-bid MAC. That’s not happening!

Click to expand...

Having seen Groce in the B1G for a few years, I struggle seeing him winning the big one in the conference tournament either.

Holy Man said:

Having seen Groce in the B1G for a few years, I struggle seeing him winning the big one in the conference tournament either.

Click to expand...

Akron won the MAC Tournament last season.

Six of the 32 NIT bids now secured:

Belmont
Liberty
Navy
South Alabama
Stephen F. Austin
UNC-Wilmington

NIT invitee list updated above.

Belmont turned it down after their coach took a new job. I suspect the MVC will have somebody take their place.

jmtod said:

Belmont turned it down after their coach took a new job. I suspect the MVC will have somebody take their place.

Click to expand...

Thanks, I just saw that. Going to update the NIT stuff shortly.

Potential NIT Invitees from Traditional 1-Bid Leagues
The 2025 NIT included 15 invitees (nearly half of the 32-team field) from conferences that perennially only get one bid to the NCAA Tournament. With St. Thomas no longer in the running for a NCAA Tournament bid, we'll track one-bid league potential participants for the 2026 NIT field as they are eliminated from conference tournaments. The list only will include teams with a NET ranking of #150 or lower. That's probably a little generous but want to make the list is as wide-ranging as possible.

We currently have 21 non yet invited through March 14. I'm including Miami U even though I think the RedHawks will receive an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney. Regular season conference champions are noted in bold/italic.

ESTIMATING 10 NIT INVITATIONS FROM THIS GROUP OF 21
#64 Miami U (MAC)
#94 Illinois State (Missouri Valley)
#102 St. Thomas (Summit)
#104 Murray State (Missouri Valley)
#107 Sam Houston (Conference USA)
#110 UIC (Missouri Valley)
#112 UC-Irvine (Big West)
#113 Bradley (Missouri Valley)
#121 Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley)
#124 UC-San Diego (Big West)
#126 UTRGV (Southland)
#128 Montana State (Big Sky)
#129 William & Mary (Coastal)
#130 Winthrop (Big South)
#140 East Tennessee State (SoCon)
#141 Kent State (MAC)
#142 UCSB (Big West)
#144 Cornell (Ivy)
#147 Portland State (Big Sky)
#148 Robert Morris (Horizon)
#149 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

Bids Accepted (5 of 32)
#89 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
#96 UNC-Wilmington (Coastal)
#106 Liberty (Conference USA)
#137 Navy (Patriot)
#188 South Alabama (Sun Belt)

Saturday Pick to Click (69-58, 54.3%, W-1 streak) (post-Super Bowl 15-18, 45.5%)
Utah State -1.5 over San Diego State

Potential NIT Invitees from Traditional 1-Bid Leagues
The 2025 NIT included 15 invitees (nearly half of the 32-team field) from conferences that perennially only get one bid to the NCAA Tournament. With St. Thomas no longer in the running for a NCAA Tournament bid, we'll track one-bid league potential participants for the 2026 NIT field as they are eliminated from conference tournaments. The list only will include teams with a NET ranking of #150 or lower. That's probably a little generous but want to make the list is as wide-ranging as possible.

We currently have 24 non yet invited through March 14. I'm including Miami U even though I think the RedHawks will receive an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney. Regular season conference champions are noted in bold/italic.

ESTIMATING 10 NIT INVITATIONS FROM THIS GROUP OF 23
#64 Miami U (MAC)
#66 Yale (Ivy)
#85 Utah Valley (WAC)
#95 Illinois State (Missouri Valley)
#103 St. Thomas (Summit)
#105 Murray State (Missouri Valley)
#107 Sam Houston (Conference USA)
#110 UIC (Missouri Valley)
#113 Bradley (Missouri Valley)
#117 UC-Irvine (Big West)
#120 Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley)
#124 UC-San Diego (Big West)
#126 UTRGV (Southland)
#128 Montana State (Big Sky)
#129 William & Mary (Coastal)
#130 Toledo (MAC)
#131 Winthrop (Big South)
#139 East Tennessee State (SoCon)
#140 Kent State (MAC)
#142 UCSB (Big West)
#146 Portland State (Big Sky)
#147 Robert Morris (Horizon)
#149 Cornell (Ivy)
#150 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

Overall Bids Accounted For (17 of 32)
American auto bid
ACC auto bid
Atlantic 10 auto bid
Big East auto bid
Big Ten auto bid
Big XII auto bid
Big West auto bid
Missouri Valley auto bid
Mountain West auto bid
SEC auto bid
WCC auto bid
WAC auto bid
#89 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
#96 UNC-Wilmington (Coastal)
#106 Liberty (Conference USA)
#137 Navy (Patriot)
#188 South Alabama (Sun Belt)

Selection Sunday Pick to Click (70-58, 54.7%, W-2 streak) (post-Super Bowl 16-18, 47.1%)
Penn +8.5 vs. Yale

My guess at the NIT automatic qualifiers (top 12 conferences):

American: Tulsa
ACC: Stanford
A-10: George Mason
Big East: Butler
Big Ten: USC
Big XII: Oklahoma State
Big West: UC-Irvine
MVC: Illinois State
Mountain West: New Mexico
SEC: Auburn
WCC: Seattle
WAC: Utah Valley

And for the h*ll of it, the remaining 20 spots:

American (1): *Wichita State
ACC (2): Florida State, *SMU
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big XII (1): Colorado
Big West (1): UC-San Diego
Coastal (1): UNC-Wilmington
Conference USA (2): Liberty, Sam Houston
Ivy (1): Yale
MAC (1): Kent State
Missouri Valley (2): Bradley, UIC
Mountain West (1): Grand Canyon
Patriot (1): Navy
SEC (1): *Oklahoma
SoCon (1): East Tennessee State
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin
Summit (1): St. Thomas
Sunt Belt (1): South Alabama

Waiting in the wings (4): Colorado State, George Washington, LSU, UAB

* = If they don't make NCAA Tournament

Quite a year for Illinois State, natty game (lost) in men's football (FCS out of Missouri Valley Football Conf, upset NDSU in Fargo), and looks like men's bball did pretty well.

Seems like a good candidate to move up to an FBS conf?