Four B1G Ones Coming - Tournament Seeds Final Run - Gophers Defense and Offense System Explained Too

tripledouble said:

You're right. And, if my memory is correct, K State was the top seed in that regional. Also, I recall that the NCAA tried neutral sites for the first round of the NCAA tourney before they opted to use top 16 seeds as sites. With the explosion of women's basketball popularity, maybe we see them go back to neutral sites in the future. I'm okay with the current system...at least for now.

Click to expand...

To be fair, pretty much everyone agreed that the Gophers were not really a 7 seed. The seed was based on all of the losses the Gophers racked up while Whalen was hurt and uncertainty about whether she'd even be able to return at full strength -- which, we found out in that UCLA game, she really did.

ESPN has Tennessee listed as a 5 seed and they just lost to a terrible A&M team. I bet they have us on a 5 line when the next one comes out.
Heck it wouldn’t shock me to see us on a 4 line with a Sunday win.
Just keep winning!

DietCokeFan said:

ESPN has Tennessee listed as a 5 seed and they just lost to a terrible A&M team. I bet they have us on a 5 line when the next one comes out.
Heck it wouldn’t shock me to see us on a 4 line with a Sunday win.
Just keep winning!

Click to expand...

we do get a NEW Bracketology tomorrow so will be interesting.

Up next, Michigan State. See discussion and analysis at this thread:


Game three of Four B1G Ones Coming!

Mara Braun's Come Back from Two Tragic Foot Injuries, Redshirt Injury Season, "Washed Up"



Mara Braun is back

After she wasn't back yet to start the season -- looked washed up -- from two tragic foot injuries, making a come back from a redshirt injury season.

Mara Braun is NOT washed up!



Mara Braun averaged 19 points and 7.5 rebounds in the first two games of four B1G ones coming, helping the Minnesota Golden Gophers secure key victories over Wisconsin and #10 Ohio State.



Key Highlights

• Ohio State Victory: Braun’s 18 points and 9 rebounds helped snap a 14-game losing streak against the Buckeyes, moving Minnesota into fourth place in the Big Ten.
• Long-Term Trend: Over her last seven games, Braun is shooting 46.5% from three-point range and 51.3% from the floor, averaging 15.7 points per game.
• Team Impact: With the Gophers entering the AP Top 25 for the first time this season, Braun has adjusted her play to include more passing and "hustle" plays alongside four other starters who also average double-digit scoring.

Charlie's Crème has us at a 5 seed

Win the next 2 and the 4 will be in hand.

MaroonMagic said:

I'm just hoping that if we get a double bye in the Big Ten tournament we don't somehow end up facing Washington as our first opponent. Our 0-3 record with them over the last two seasons and the relative blowouts make me think that Tina Langley just knows how to beat Coach P. I would be so nervous to face them again, even if we would have Tori back for that game.

Click to expand...

Doing my own digging, OSU & MST are the most likely opponent in BIG tourny if we win out. If MI beats IA, we would be #3 seed, meaning we'd play the #6 seed, assuming #6 wins the day before. But there is a realistic path for WASH to jump up to #6 if their cards fall right.
WASH also makes me nervous, but I think we are better now than then, especially w/ Tori. It would be nice to break that streak.

We will start with the assumption Minnesota gets a double bye. Other Big Ten teams finish the regular season as most likely outcomes of games, Michigan State losing down the stretch.

Minnesota enters as the #3 seed following their regular-season-ending wins over Michigan State and Illinois.

Quarterfinals: #3 Minnesota vs. #6 Maryland

• Result: Minnesota 81, Maryland 79 (OT)
• The Matchup: The Gophers finally overcome the Terrapins’ pressure. Trailing by 6 with two minutes left, Minnesota forces two turnovers and hits a buzzer-beating jumper to send it to overtime. In the extra period, the Gophers’ defense holds Maryland scoreless for the final 90 seconds. This win is a massive "monkey off the back" and surges Minnesota's NET ranking to #7.

Semifinals: #3 Minnesota vs. #2 Michigan

• Result: Minnesota 74, Michigan 66
• The Matchup: Carrying momentum from the Maryland win, Minnesota plays their most complete game of the season. They out-rebound the Wolverines and exploit their bench depth. By defeating the #2 team in the conference, the Gophers have officially played their way onto the 3-seed line in nearly every bracketology projection.

Championship: #3 Minnesota vs. #1 UCLA

• Result: UCLA 77, Minnesota 64
• The Matchup: The Bruins remain the one puzzle Minnesota can't solve. UCLA’s transition game is too fast, and they pull away in the fourth quarter. Despite the loss, Minnesota leaves Indianapolis as the tournament runners-up with a 23–7 record.

---

NCAA Tournament Projection: The Sacramento Regional
With a deep conference run and wins over every top Big Ten team except UCLA, the Selection Committee places Minnesota as the #3 seed in the Sacramento Regional.

The First Round Matchup:
As a 3 seed, Minnesota hosts the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena. Their projected opponent is the #14 seed, likely a mid-major champion such as:

• Idaho (Big Sky Champion): A high-tempo team that relies on three-point shooting.
• High Point (Big South Champion): A defensive-minded squad that would struggle with Minnesota's size in the paint.

they would face the winner of the No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup in the second round.

Projected 2nd Round Opponents (6 vs. 11 Winner)
Based on the latest February 20, 2026, bracketology from ESPN’s Charlie Creme and NCAA.com, here are the most likely teams traveling to Minneapolis:

• Tennessee (6 Seed): The Lady Vols are a frequent projection for the 6-seed line. They are a high-rebounding SEC team that would present a significant physical challenge in the paint for the Gophers.
• North Carolina (6 Seed): Projected as a 6 seed in some regions, the Tar Heels play a fast-paced ACC style. A Minnesota vs. UNC matchup would be a battle of elite backcourts.
• Rice (11 Seed): Currently projected by Charlie Creme to face Tennessee in the first round. If they pull the 11-over-6 upset, they would bring a disciplined, defensive-first approach to The Barn.
• Arizona State or Nebraska (11 Seed): Both are currently on the "Last Four In" bubble. If they win their First Four play-in game and then upset a 6 seed, they could set up an all-Big Ten second round in Minneapolis against the Gophers.

The Road Ahead:
If Minnesota wins their first two games at "The Barn," they would head to Sacramento for the Sweet 16, where a potential rematch with #2 seed Michigan or a matchup with a #2 seed like LSU awaits.

***** OR *****

Narrow Loss to Michigan
After successfully vanquishing their "kryptonite" in the Quarterfinals (#6 Maryland), Minnesota faces the #2 seed Michigan Wolverines in the Saturday Semifinals.

• The Game: It is a back-and-forth thriller that goes down to the final possession. Minnesota leads by one with 12 seconds left, but a Michigan layup and a missed Gopher buzzer-beater result in a 72–71 loss.
• The Impact: While Minnesota proved they can compete with the conference’s elite, they missed the chance to add a "signature" win over a projected #2 seed in the tournament.

NCAA Seeding: The #4 Seed Hosting Scenario
A loss in the semifinals, combined with their 14–4 regular-season record, leaves Minnesota with a resume that is "on the bubble" between a 3 and 4 seed. Because the 3-seed line is often reserved for teams with multiple wins against the top 10, the committee likely slots them as a high 4 seed.


What this means for Minnesota:
As a 4 seed, they still achieve the primary goal: Hosting the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena.

• First Round: They would likely face a #13 seed (e.g., the champion from the MAC or Sun Belt).
• Second Round: The challenge gets steeper. They would likely face a #5 seed—a powerhouse team like LSU or Louisville—to determine who advances to the Sweet 16.

Mid-American Conference (MAC) Candidates

• Miami (OH) RedHawks (Projected 26–0)
  • The Matchup: This is the "Duel of the Streaks." Miami plays a disciplined, slow-tempo game that limits possessions.
  • Minnesota’s Advantage: Size and Strength. The Gophers’ Big Ten-tested frontcourt would likely overwhelm the RedHawks in the paint. If Minnesota’s defense travels to the perimeter to stop Miami's 40% three-point shooting, the Gophers win comfortably.
  • The Danger: If Minnesota has a "cold" shooting night, Miami’s efficiency and lack of turnovers could keep this a one-possession game late into the fourth quarter.
• Kent State Golden Flashes
  • The Matchup: A veteran squad that relies on heavy ball pressure and transition points.
  • Minnesota’s Advantage: Guard Depth. Minnesota’s backcourt is built to handle the "chaos" style of defense Kent State employs. In a half-court set, the Gophers have more ways to score.
  • The Danger: Kent State thrives on "bid-stealing" energy. If they turn the Gophers over 15+ times, the Williams Arena crowd might get nervous.

---

Sun Belt Conference Candidates

• James Madison Dukes (Preseason Favorites)
  • The Matchup: A very physical, rebounding-focused team. They play "Big Ten lite" basketball.
  • Minnesota’s Advantage: Elite Shooting. While JMU can bang in the post, they often struggle to close out on elite shooters. Minnesota’s ability to "stretch the floor" with their 4-out offensive sets would pull JMU’s bigs away from the rim.
  • The Danger: Peyton McDaniel. The Sun Belt Preseason Player of the Year is a volume scorer who can go for 30+ points. If she gets hot, she can carry the Dukes to an upset.
• Troy Trojans (Current Conference Leaders)
  • The Matchup: Track Meet. Troy leads the nation in field goal attempts; they shoot within 7 seconds of every possession.
  • Minnesota’s Advantage: Conditioning and Coaching. The Gophers’ defensive discipline is their hallmark this season. By forcing Troy into "bad" shots and securing the defensive rebound, Minnesota can trigger their own fast break.
  • The Danger: Troy’s "exhaustion" strategy. They play 12 players deep. If Minnesota gets into foul trouble or looks tired in the second half, Troy’s relentless pace can become a nightmare.

Summary: Against any of these teams, Minnesota would be a 10–12 point favorite at home. The real test comes 48 hours later in the Second Round, likely against a 5-seed powerhouse.

I agree...

WinMinGophers! said:

We will start with the assumption Minnesota gets a double bye. Other Big Ten teams finish the regular season as most likely outcomes of games, Michigan State losing down the stretch.

Minnesota enters as the #3 seed following their regular-season-ending wins over Michigan State and Illinois.

Quarterfinals: #3 Minnesota vs. #6 Maryland

• Result: Minnesota 81, Maryland 79 (OT)
• The Matchup: The Gophers finally overcome the Terrapins’ pressure. Trailing by 6 with two minutes left, Minnesota forces two turnovers and hits a buzzer-beating jumper to send it to overtime. In the extra period, the Gophers’ defense holds Maryland scoreless for the final 90 seconds. This win is a massive "monkey off the back" and surges Minnesota's NET ranking to #7.

Semifinals: #3 Minnesota vs. #2 Michigan

• Result: Minnesota 74, Michigan 66
• The Matchup: Carrying momentum from the Maryland win, Minnesota plays their most complete game of the season. They out-rebound the Wolverines and exploit their bench depth. By defeating the #2 team in the conference, the Gophers have officially played their way onto the 3-seed line in nearly every bracketology projection.

Championship: #3 Minnesota vs. #1 UCLA

• Result: UCLA 77, Minnesota 64
• The Matchup: The Bruins remain the one puzzle Minnesota can't solve. UCLA’s transition game is too fast, and they pull away in the fourth quarter. Despite the loss, Minnesota leaves Indianapolis as the tournament runners-up with a 23–7 record.

---

NCAA Tournament Projection: The Sacramento Regional
With a deep conference run and wins over every top Big Ten team except UCLA, the Selection Committee places Minnesota as the #3 seed in the Sacramento Regional.

The First Round Matchup:
As a 3 seed, Minnesota hosts the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena. Their projected opponent is the #14 seed, likely a mid-major champion such as:

• Idaho (Big Sky Champion): A high-tempo team that relies on three-point shooting.
• High Point (Big South Champion): A defensive-minded squad that would struggle with Minnesota's size in the paint.

The Road Ahead:
If Minnesota wins their first two games at "The Barn," they would head to Sacramento for the Sweet 16, where a potential rematch with #2 seed Michigan or a matchup with a #2 seed like LSU awaits.

OR

Narrow Loss to Michigan
After successfully vanquishing their "kryptonite" in the Quarterfinals (#6 Maryland), Minnesota faces the #2 seed Michigan Wolverines in the Saturday Semifinals.

• The Game: It is a back-and-forth thriller that goes down to the final possession. Minnesota leads by one with 12 seconds left, but a Michigan layup and a missed Gopher buzzer-beater result in a 72–71 loss.
• The Impact: While Minnesota proved they can compete with the conference’s elite, they missed the chance to add a "signature" win over a projected #2 seed in the tournament.

NCAA Seeding: The #4 Seed Hosting Scenario
A loss in the semifinals, combined with their 14–4 regular-season record, leaves Minnesota with a resume that is "on the bubble" between a 3 and 4 seed. Because the 3-seed line is often reserved for teams with multiple wins against the top 10, the committee likely slots them as a high 4 seed.

Tournament Metric	Minnesota Status
Final NET Ranking	#9 – #11
Final Record	22–8
Projected NCAA Seed	No. 4
Hosting Rights	Yes (Top 16 seeds host at home)

What this means for Minnesota:
As a 4 seed, they still achieve the primary goal: Hosting the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena.

• First Round: They would likely face a #13 seed (e.g., the champion from the MAC or Sun Belt).
• Second Round: The challenge gets steeper. They would likely face a #5 seed—a powerhouse team like LSU or Louisville—to determine who advances to the Sweet 16.

Click to expand...

I agree... 3 seed in BTT... beating MD... then beating Michigan and losing to UCLA. Winning two games gives us a 4 seed in tournament, otherwise 5 seed.

AllEars said:

I agree...

I agree... 3 seed in BTT... beating MD... then beating Michigan and losing to UCLA. Winning two games gives us a 4 seed in tournament, otherwise 5 seed.

Click to expand...

Minnesota will get a double-bye to the B1G Tournament. Win at least one regular season game = double-bye. I'm going to assume this happens.


** When We Will Know if Gophers Are Hosting First Two Rounds of NCAA Tournament **

Friday, March 6 -- when Gophers win or lose first game of Big Ten Tournament

Win that first game in B1G tournament and then hosting as a #2-4 in NCAA Tournament will ensue.

Losing first game in Big Ten Tournament is a #5 in NCAA Tournament.




Minnesota would likely play Maryland in the Big Ten tournament (unless Maryland is upset earlier in the tournament).

Maryland would leapfrog Minnesota to #4 and kick Minnesota to the road to the #5 seed if Minnesota lost to Maryland.

---> MINNESOTA HAS TO WIN ONE GAME IN THE BIG TEN TOURNAMENT TO GET A #4 OR BETTER. <----

The above line is THE most important factor, other than don't lose both regular season games.

1. Win at least one of the remaining regular season games.
2. Win at least one game in Big Ten Tournament.

Or Minnesota is on the road in the NCAA tournament. That's the facts, Jack.

Winning out the regular season is not enough to overcome losing the first game of the Big Ten Tournament. Minnesota cannot get a #4 seed unless Gophers win one Big Ten Tournament game.

Matchup View: The Coaching Chess Match: Minnesota vs Maryland

• Minnesota (The "Hard Hat" Defensive Wall):
  • Strategic Goal: Turn the game into a "grind-it-out" affair. Coach Plitzuweit emphasizes toughness and defensive efficiency, leading the Big Ten by allowing only 55.9 points per game.
  • Critical Factor: Turnover control. Minnesota leads the nation in fewest turnovers per game (10.1). To win, they must prevent Maryland from turning steals into easy transition points.
• Maryland (The "Track Meet" Offense):
  • Strategic Goal: Speed up the game. Coach Frese’s "perfect mesh" system focuses on an up-tempo style, averaging 82.8 points per game (14th nationally).
  • Critical Factor: Rebounding dominance. The Terrapins lead the Big Ten in offensive rebounds per game (26.7), using second-chance opportunities to overwhelm defensive-minded teams.

Projected Winner: Maryland (Slight Edge)

While Minnesota has been surging—recently entering the AP Top 25 at No. 23 and defeating Top 10 opponents like Iowa—Maryland holds the historical and stylistic edge in this specific matchup.

• Regular Season Precedent: The two teams met in a double-overtime thriller on December 7, 2025, which Maryland won 100-99 on the road.
• Why Maryland Projects to Win: In tournament play, Maryland’s ability to generate "easy" points through offensive rebounding and free throws (leading the B1G in FTM) often offsets a disciplined defense. However, a Minnesota victory is highly plausible if Mara Braun and Grace Grocholski can maintain their offensive efficiency while the defense holds Maryland under 70 points.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
MUST win one game in Big Ten Tournament or will be leapfrogged for the #4.

Losing first game in Big Ten Tournament is a #5 in NCAA Tournament.

Win that first game in B1G tournament and then #2-4 in NCAA Tournament will ensue.

** COACH DAWN PLITZUWEIT'S MINNESOTA GOPHERS SYSTEM **



What I write clarifies Coach P's system further. It expands on other comments such as these:

Read: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threa...ense-system-explained-too.121014/post-3282405

Read: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/big-game-15-gophers-badgers-feb-15th.121016/post-3283698

Read: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threa...-host-ohio-state-feb-18th.121038/post-3284526


CLARIFYING POINTS

1. Coach's P's system is designed to starve other teams of easier points off turnovers.

GOPHERS DEFENSE LEADS THE ENTIRE NCAA IN FEWEST TURNOVERS!

Ohio State defense averaged a whopping 22.79 turnovers per conference game, entering the game against Minnesota. Minnesota completely shut that down.

Another team with better talent may beat Minnesota, but they are still going to be starved of the easier points off turnovers.


2. Coach P's system is designed to limit points off fast transitions by the other team. Gophers play disciplined time-consuming offense. That limits the possessions for the other team and tries to starve them of fast break transition points.

Minnesota has the best defense in the Big Ten. Gophers suppress.scoring.

This one is hard to achieve. It breaks down sometimes.

That will be the battle against Michigan State. Gophers will probably win that. Read analysis here:

Read: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threa...t-michigan-state-feb-22nd.121066/post-3285760


Maryland and Michigan are Kryptonite Dangers

Michigan often plays five guards so it's more difficult to shut down the transition game. Michigan also creates chaos on defense to generate opportunities. Gophers offense needs to stay disciplined against Michican.

Michigan snapshot:

Maryland is famous for having fast, effective guards -- usually tall. It's hard to cut off a fast, tall guard breaking away, hard to force Maryland into their regular half-court offense.

I think Gophers would beat Michigan. I'm not sure about Maryland. Ohio State is not much of a threat.

3. Gophers sometimes become discombobulated on offense and allow runs of transition points. This team sometimes loses it for a stretch and recovers. Gophers are not UConn, well maybe for 2.5-3 quarters of action.

Coach P ALWAYS calls a time out when this happens.

4. Everyone is a transition strike opportunity. Coach wants several players that can bring the ball down court and strike, often from 3. The Coach P system can (and usually) works well with a forward/wing in place of a big. That adds a transition strike player threat.

A slightly taller GG could replace Sophie Hart's role.

Having Hart in a 4-1 system is a modification of Coach's P system that prefers positionless players that can defense, shoot 3s, and bring the ball up for fast break opportunities.

Coach P's system next season may again utilize a big 4-1 system. Gophers would need to replace Sophie Hart.

Or Gophers can go with a forward/guard for that at the 5. Incoming elite recruit Natalie Kussow is 5' 10". Tori Oehrlein is 5' 9". Neither of them can fill that role. Makena Christian is 6' 0". Maybe...

5. The offense is a motion offense. Players make reads on the fly and then act with pre-practiced options such as A B or C, with lots of off ball screening. That creates a sense of motion, to A to B to C, that confuses defenses while getting players open for looks, often 3's.

To summarize:

1. The Gophers starve other teams of points off turnovers. Right there the other team has been cut points they usually can count on.
Turnover reliant teams like Ohio State are nullified.

2. Gophers try to starve break-away transition points, but Gophers sometimes become discombobulated and let runs happen.
Talented transition teams like Maryland and Michigan are the real danger.

3. Gophers do not have a deep bench, having been deprived of Taylor Woodson due to injury. Minnesota is at risk of falling apart in the last 2 minutes due to being gassed.

4. Gophers prefer to be positionless so.everyone is a fast transition strike threat. Defense stifles and Gophers strike off the defense. The current system is.modifed with Sophie Hart because she is so.good and worth the trade off. She creates new problems for opposing offenses and defenses.

2025-26 Defensive Statistics & Rankings

• Points Allowed per Game (Scoring Defense): 56.5 (Ranked 10th-21st nationally, 1st in the Big Ten).
• Fewest Turnovers (Offensive Control): 9.8 per game (1st in the nation).
• Turnover Margin: +9.6 (Extremely high, indicating high defensive pressure leading to opponent turnovers).
• Steals: 8.6 per game.
• Defensive Rating: 84.2 (Points allowed per 100 possessions).
• Scoring Margin: +11.0 (Reflecting strong defensive impact on overall game control)

5. Offense is a motion offense.

6. Mara Braun is back! Having potent shooters can bury an opponent starved of turnover points and some transition points. Gophers earlier this season just didn't have their ace sniper at full operational capabilities.




Mara Braun -- Last 3 Games Box Score

CBS Women's College Basketball Power Rankings

Minnesota up.to #18.

Gophers also get two paragraphs.