I’m a fleck guy but

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spermophilus said:
A little better (top 30) anyway, on this set of facts/results. Shows - or conveys - no collapse years under P.J., so there’s that.View attachment 42028
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Agree
Still think we need an up year soon (if we don’t have a 9+ win regular season in the Lindsey era will be hard to give another cycle of 3-4 years IMO)
 




Some guy said:
I’m in.
Unless it’s a complete flop (4-8 or worse) I probably give it two though
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All we need is an extra thing or two to go our way. We’d probably have 10 wins in ‘21 had we done what we were supposed to do against Bowing Green, or if injuries hadn’t been so much of an issue. Same in 2022, or remove a Mo Ibrahim fumble. We’re not far.
 


spermophilus said:
A little better (top 30) anyway, on this set of facts/results. Shows - or conveys - no collapse years under P.J., so there’s that.View attachment 42028
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Check out the teams 10 to 15 below them. Most of them consistently recruit “better” than PJ but there are a few ahead of him to. PJ is definitely an overachiever.
 



spermophilus said:
A little better (top 30) anyway, on this set of facts/results. Shows - or conveys - no collapse years under P.J., so there’s that.View attachment 42028
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Should only get to count wins against P4, and then should also have a number next to it about the average number of P4 wins of those opponents (ie. a SOS metric).


Counting "wins" against Northwestern State and Eastern Illinois types programs? 🤮
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Was just going to post. Interesting list.
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I'm not sure it's really that interesting that over half of the 73 wins against teams that average fewer than 3 P4 wins per year.

I made that up .... but it's definitely believable. What's the real number? And how do our peer programs in the Big Ten do?
 

GopherGrit said:
I'm not sure it's really that interesting that over half of the 73 wins against teams that average fewer than 3 P4 wins per year.

I made that up .... but it's definitely believable. What's the real number? And how do our peer programs in the Big Ten do?
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Really good questions that you should maybe look up rather than make up?


Lol
 




GopherGrit said:
I doubt they're available to look up, I'd have to write the python code from the dataset. Too lazy and not enough time. Otherwise I would :)
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So then I am going to say all the teams on the original list Maxy posted have similar win quality.
The more wins you have the more quality wins you have. The fewer wins you have the fewer quality wins you have.


Source:
All power 5 teams play similar schedules until proven otherwise.
Even if there are anomaly wins of quality for teams lower on the list…them being Lower on the list mean that those quality wins were balanced by more losses.
 

Some guy said:
So then I am going to say all the teams on the original list Maxy posted have similar win quality.
The more wins you have the more quality wins you have. The fewer wins you have the fewer quality wins you have.


Source:
All power 5 teams play similar schedules until proven otherwise.
Even if there are anomaly wins of quality for teams lower on the list…them being Lower on the list mean that those quality wins were balanced by more losses.
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The slightly more correct thing: all the teams listed likely have very similar percentage of P4 teams played.

That's probably reasonable.


It does not prove a SOS though, no more than saying "all NFL teams play 100% other NFL teams" does.

Yes, It's on my to go calculate it. Apologies that I do not have the time at the moment.
 

Let's try it this way, trying to aim it back at the OP:

does anyone here feel that great that Fleck has averaged 7 regular season wins over 2021-2025 seasons?
 

GopherGrit said:
Let's try it this way, trying to aim it back at the OP:

does anyone here feel that great that Fleck has averaged 7 regular season wins over 2021-2025 seasons?
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No
if 2021-2025 is the program in perpetuity eventually a change would need to be made.

The gophers have won 40 games in 5 years. I think if they had won 44 in 5 years nearly everyone would be satisfied.
 

Some guy said:
No
if 2021-2025 is the program in perpetuity eventually a change would need to be made.

The gophers have won 40 games in 5 years. I think if they had won 44 in 5 years nearly everyone would be satisfied.
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I hope for an up year every 5 years or so. I think PJs strength right now is consistency. He also usually schedules a NC P4 opponent which I like. I am ok with 7-8 wins a year. Am I accepting mediocrity? Unless I have a few million in NIL to shell out I can't really "demand" better. We ran Mase out of town for the snake oil salesman. I don't want to do that again. I think PJ is on the right track we just need another year where the breaks all go our way.
 



GopherGrit said:
Should only get to count wins against P4, and then should also have a number next to it about the average number of P4 wins of those opponents (ie. a SOS metric).


Counting "wins" against Northwestern State and Eastern Illinois types programs? 🤮
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Yes, embarrassing for a respectable program to include these sorts of “wins” . . . .
Recent Alabama vs. FCS Matchups
  • Nov. 21, 2009: Alabama 45, Chattanooga 0
  • Nov. 21, 2015: Alabama 56, Charleston Southern 6
  • Nov. 19, 2016: Alabama 31, Chattanooga 3
  • Nov. 18, 2017: Alabama 56, Mercer 0
  • Nov. 17, 2018: Alabama 50, The Citadel 17
  • Nov. 23, 2019: Alabama 66, Western Carolina 3
  • Sep. 11, 2021: Alabama 48, Mercer 14
 

rugger14 said:
I hope for an up year every 5 years or so. I think PJs strength right now is consistency. He also usually schedules a NC P4 opponent which I like. I am ok with 7-8 wins a year. Am I accepting mediocrity? Unless I have a few million in NIL to shell out I can't really "demand" better. We ran Mase out of town for the snake oil salesman. I don't want to do that again. I think PJ is on the right track we just need another year where the breaks all go our way.
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Agree
I think if we are 7-5 or 6-6 two more years in a row it’ll be time.
Need an up year at some point in each 4-5 year cycle.

2021 was the best team of the cycle and Mo was hurt. Laid an egg vs BG.

2022 was the second best team in the cycle Mo missed Purdue game. Morgan was banged up all year. 8-4 was a decent record for what I thought was the third or fourth best roster in the division (I thought Illinois had the best roster).

2023 was a disaster. Lost the close games. Clearly they didn’t trust the QB. The most disappointing season of the gopher tenure of Fleck IMO.

2024 was a pretty good team I thought but it took them half a season to figure out their identity and led to the record being what it was. Fun team. Not a good record. Just okay

2025 was probably a bottom 3 team of the fleck tenure (2017 and 2023 being the two that were worse). Couldn’t run the ball plus freshmen QB. Defense had a few absolute stinkers. But they won 8 anyways.


I also value regular season wins significantly more than bowl wins.


If they had won an extra game in 21 or 22
If 23 was 7-5 instead of 5-7
If they had won an extra game in 24 or 25
^^all of those things would have a lot of people further away from the fence.

4 more wins over 5 years and nobody is even close to the fence. But alas, they didn’t win them.


I think fleck has two more seasons to get a 9+. Win regular season to solidly himself for another 5 year cycle. Without that there is going to be a lot of people wondering if the new ceiling is 8-4 in the post Covid era. And if it is, I think it’ll be time to move on.
Go 8-4 in the next two years and it’ll be tough to fire him but people are going to be frustrated.
If 7-5 is the peak the next two years it’ll probably be acceptable to even his most staunch supporters (me) to understand it if they let him go.


I am not sure Coyle sees it this way.
 

Again, name any Big10 team, that if they were on our schedule we can circle as a guaranteed win?

I can't name one after seeing what Purdue and Northwestern did against us last year.

With that, unless the season implodes and we have five wins or less, I'm on board for two more RtB excursions. I do like PJ... I don't like mediocrity.

To me, 6-6 + a 🥣 win is the 2026 season. Yet, I like the incoming high school recruits, I like what we did in the portal, and I like the resumes of the new assistant coaches.

Finally, to borrow from Common, I think we have "a chip, a chair, and a chance" to go 9-3...but I cannot find 10 wins on our schedule.

Sorry for rambling...

GoGophers!
 

Arminius said:
Again, name any Big10 team, that if they were on our schedule we can circle as a guaranteed win?

I can't name one after seeing what Purdue and Northwestern did against us last year.

With that, unless the season implodes and we have five wins or less, I'm on board for two more RtB excursions. I do like PJ... I don't like mediocrity.

To me, 6-6 + a 🥣 win is the 2026 season. Yet, I like the incoming high school recruits, I like what we did in the portal, and I like the resumes of the new assistant coaches.

Finally, to borrow from Common, I think we have "a chip, a chair, and a chance" to go 9-3...but I cannot find 10 wins on our schedule.

Sorry for rambling...

GoGophers!
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I think there are guaranteed wins in the big ten.
But never on the road.

Vs Purdue in 25 the team played like donkey and won anyways.

Next year the gophers host ucla in November. That is a guaranteed win from me.


They are few and far between
 

GopherGrit said:
Should only get to count wins against P4, and then should also have a number next to it about the average number of P4 wins of those opponents (ie. a SOS metric).


Counting "wins" against Northwestern State and Eastern Illinois types programs? 🤮
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Check out the wins the top SEC teams are counting .... it's apples to apples.
 


I think it's wild that people are throwing around the concept of dumping the coach if we don't take off in the next two years when the entire cfb roster landscape is an absolute nightmare with NIL and isn't looking to stabilize sans some kind of external intervention.

The guy has done a decent job maintaining roster stability while adding players at places of need, all while maintaining a consistent w/l record over his entire term here. Hitting the reset button on the coaching staff will not turn us into a title contender, and it's more likely than not it will catch us a guy who has no idea how to both manage a consistent roster and net a decent chunk of wins on a yearly basis in the most talented conference in the country.

Sans a total drop-off in the w/l column, you keep the guy until more rules are in place for NIL and roster maintenance or you have a person who comes in promising $15-20+ million to pump up our roster with the caveat that the existing guy needs to go. You stand pat until then. There's no Cignetti type coming here, and the likelihood of this program returning to the basement are far higher than the opposite outcome upon a coaching move when a coaching move isn't necessary but for a handful of people's unrealistic pipe dreams of championships.
 

mngg11 said:
I think it's wild that people are throwing around the concept of dumping the coach if we don't take off in the next two years when the entire cfb roster landscape is an absolute nightmare with NIL and isn't looking to stabilize sans some kind of external intervention.

The guy has done a decent job maintaining roster stability while adding players at places of need, all while maintaining a consistent w/l record over his entire term here. Hitting the reset button on the coaching staff will not turn us into a title contender, and it's more likely than not it will catch us a guy who has no idea how to both manage a consistent roster and net a decent chunk of wins on a yearly basis in the most talented conference in the country.

Sans a total drop-off in the w/l column, you keep the guy until more rules are in place for NIL and roster maintenance or you have a person who comes in promising $15-20+ million to pump up our roster with the caveat that the existing guy needs to go. You stand pat until then. There's no Cignetti type coming here, and the likelihood of this program returning to the basement are far higher than the opposite outcome upon a coaching move when a coaching move isn't necessary but for a handful of people's unrealistic pipe dreams of championships.
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2/3 of the power 4 has a 10 win season post 2020


Minnesota doesn’t.

Point being, even bad coaches seem to win 10 games more recently than fleck



I am not a fire fleck guy. But if you go until 2028 and never get to 9 regular season wins…would be hard for anyone to say just give it more time and it’ll happen. I don’t think it’s that hot of a take to say if Mn goes two more years without Minnesota finishing in the top 25 (9-3 would probably do it) it may be time to evaluate what flecks ceiling is in this era and if it’s good enough.
I’m not asking to be a national title contender. I’m asking to be in the top 25 once every 5 years.
 
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Arminius said:
Again, name any Big10 team, that if they were on our schedule we can circle as a guaranteed win?

I can't name one after seeing what Purdue and Northwestern did against us last year.

With that, unless the season implodes and we have five wins or less, I'm on board for two more RtB excursions. I do like PJ... I don't like mediocrity.

To me, 6-6 + a 🥣 win is the 2026 season. Yet, I like the incoming high school recruits, I like what we did in the portal, and I like the resumes of the new assistant coaches.

Finally, to borrow from Common, I think we have "a chip, a chair, and a chance" to go 9-3...but I cannot find 10 wins on our schedule.

Sorry for rambling...

GoGophers!
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That is a fun question. How many of the 17 other teams would include Gophers in their circled teams?
 

HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving said:
That is a fun question. How many of the 17 other teams would include Gophers in their circled teams?
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Frankly I think the concept of viewing any Big Ten game as a guaranteed win is pretty crazy. Maybe the helmet schools can kind of do that when playing the bottom tier teams in the conference but we have all seen that anything can happen on any given Saturday.
 

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